At some point, I am confident that the HIVE chart is going to hockeystick and it isn't going to come back down to these levels ever again. I don't know what it is goin to be that pushes the price up, but once the ball starts rolling, up it will go. It could be that one of the projects like LEO becomes a gateway for mass adoption, it could be that a celebrity with a huge following joins, it could be that a large investor buys and then corrals more investment, it could be that the community can attract other communities who join to massively swell the numbers - it could be all of these things combined and perhaps, it is the all that is likely.
Once the ball is rolling, the momentum builds behind it and people start to take notice and jump on the bandwagon, even if it is to do nothing more than make sure that the competition doesn't get too far ahead.
Last night, I was talking to my wife about holdings and price predictions of Bitcoin, as it is easier for her to understand this from a single token perspective, without including other streams. I was showing her the stock-to-flow models and the predictions for the future and she asked, "but it has to end sometime, right?".
Yes. And no.
Firstly, the value of Bitcoin is a tiny drop in the ocean in comparison to what kind of wealth is circulating in the world and I explained that for example, the market capitalization of BTC is around a trillion dollars, which sounds like a lot, until considering that the two largest managed fund in the world are a combined 15 trillion. And at least the largest of those, BlackRock, has started to "dabble" in Bitcoin. A 1% dabble for them is about a 75 billion dollar move. This is is significant as about 7% of the total cap of Bitcoin, but it has far greater significance as it will mean that the second largest, The Vanguard Group, will have to follow suit, because if BlackRock is able to make significant gains, it makes that of Vanguard less attractive and investors will move elsewhere. So, they will make the move, as even if they lose, they both lose.
This triggers the third, fourth and next 10,000 managed funds to start dabbling in Bitcoin too and as you can imagine, while the 10,000th is much smaller than the first, none of them are what you would consider small and collectively, the wealth is enormous, even at 1% of an investment. Will they stick to 1 percent? So, bitcoin takes the lion's share of initial investment from the traditional investors, because they like to play it "safe". This keeps the value of Bitcoin steadily increasing, but returning less percentage gain, stabilizing it over time.
But, there is more out there than Bitcoin and there are an increasing number of options for the people who invest large amounts into something like a BlackRock fund, into something that will return a far higher rate, such as the DeFi pools that will turn the investors into managed funds and banks themselves. This undermines the foundation of the current crop of funds, meaning that they will slowly lose their investment potential, but the money that was there still stays where it was in crypto, just held more personally and used directly.
Once individuals stat investing more directly and realize how crypto works, where they can not only get a return, but invest into projects that will supercharge that return, they will explore what options there are. At the moment, there aren't too many project options that really have a working product, let alone many working products and services that have track record of usage by a community, that is now building and supporting the growth of an increasing number of communities.
Hive has many legs and many heads - it can run in any direction and it has a support base that can underpin the early moves so that an early adopter investor can have some stability to place their wealth upon and take it further forward. Hive is an incubator that never has to cut loose a startup and instead, keep expanding the fleet of powerful and valuable communities, housed in an ever expanding garage. As time goes on and there are more in the fleet, they all start benefiting from each other through intertwining investment portfolios, to create a mesh of Hive-powered communities, platforms and economic vehicles that all add strength and wealth to each other.
It is much like the collective wealth of the 10,000 investment funds, except with a bit of a difference. Those funs invest into businesses that offer some rate of return, but they themselves are not producing anything of value, other than the management of the funds. But, when there are 10,000 companies in a single ecosystem that all produce something and use some portion of their gains to invest into each other, they supercharge the value, whilst also bringing stability. An investor comes into Leo with 5% of their investment, recognizes the value of holding staked HIVE and adds another 1% there, potentially finding a piece of art on NFT Showroom to buy, adding a little consumption also.
When each of the 10,000 communities of varying sizes are gateways into themselves, as well as an introduction into the HIVE garage, more and more people will explore the option on Hive, creating an economy that becomes increasingly circular as well as increasingly decentralized through usage. This means that all communities will benefit as individual businesses and their further investments will benefit from investing into adjacent communities across the HIVE ecosystem. As more and more people come in to invest, more come in to build, as more build, more invest.
And at the base of it all, is us, the entire community of users, each using the Hive blockchain in a unique profile of ways for investment, work, social life, art and entertainment. We make gains on some parts, we spend gains in another - and a portion of what we spend is being used to invest by someone into their own unique Hive experience, possible in a way that we would not use it ourselves. This gives a great deal of investment diversity to the Hive community, even if an individual stays relatively narrow.
So, at some point, I see Hive going up and if a few parts of the paradigm shift of society align, it isn't going to be coming down again, as people will recognize the opportunity to take back control of investment and generate and create value in a far more direct and sustainable way, than a managed fund that only looks for financial ROI.
"When end?"
A long way in the future.
"When hockeystick?"
Dunno.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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Her statement that it "has to end", by which I assume she meant that it has to go to zero, seems to imply that she believes that the entire space will die and that the current system will go on living forever.
I doubt that will be the case. Your wife is likely to be in the majority of people who have no idea of the magnitude of the change that is ahead of us in a multitude of fronts.
Why would crypto die? There is obvious utility in automating having several parties enforce and witness events in a computer system. It goes to a great length to remove counterparty risk. How on Earth can anyone be oblivious to significance of that?
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Not zero I think, though I reckon that is what she fears.
She definitely is in this group. It is hard to imagine the entire world ever known, being turned over.
Because not only do most people not understand what crypto is, they don't understand how an economy works at all. :)
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How can anyone not understand what counterparty risk means? Surely, anyone who has ever bought something online or used a peer-to-peer market for anything - this would include most mothers when shopping for baby clothes - understands that not every actor is a good one. Everyone has heard of corruption or is aware of the fact that fraud is a thing.
To mitigate counterparty risk we need to employ and army of court officers and solicitors, policemen and prison administrators. It is patently clear that any technology that reduces counterparty risk is massively valuable.
But when it comes to cryptocurrencies, it is probably too much to ask to assume that the average person would understand what permissionless blockchains are and why each one of them must have a native cryptocurrency to maintain the consensus mechanism even when explained to in detail.
Also, understanding why Bitcoin has value requires understanding what money is at a very deep level, which requires understanding what stock-to-flow ratio means and how it relates to stores of value.
To the uneducated, Bitcoin looks like a pure pyramid scheme. Those who have education in topics such the history of money understand why Bitcoin is the perfect store of value asset for the digital age.
There is a difference between knowing this, and understanding the connection to other aspects.
Yeah, it's a connection one must make oneself or have someone else spell out for you.
For instance, the value of Bitcoin is in the fact that it has the money properties of gold and more.
If your wife wants to understand crypto then The Bitcoin Standard written by Saifedean Ammous is a must. In it, he spells it out as clearly as anyone can.
Stores of value are absolutely necessary. For instance, when someone sells their home but does not immediately buy another one and waits, sometimes many years, they'll need something to park their value in. Now, the euro has so far been good enough for that kind of purposes. But it is being printed at a rate that casts doubt in its ability to function as a store of value in the long run. 30-year and 10-year euro bond interests rates are going up as we speak and those are something that the ECB can't do much about by printing money - except possibly to cause them to go up more.
Bitcoin is superior as a store of value to fiat currencies. The fact that the latter have a monetary authority "backing" them means nothing because this authority is made up of a small number of puny humans whose intellectual capacity is insufficient to understand something as incredibly complex as the global financial system. I found that out when I watched a video on the Real Vision Finance channel on YouTube where a Chicago University professor of finance was interviewed about how money multiplication actually works these days. Quantifying it and its effects escapes the best experts. Besides, the tools of central banks are quite limited. They can't do fiscal policy and thus alleviate economic shocks too much even in acute situations.
What Bitcoin has going for it is unprecedented transparency and an ironclad issuance schedule and tokenomic incentives that have so far worked very well in propelling it towards becoming a globally accepted store of value asset in the coming decades.
The most beautiful aspect is it that it is a protocol and based on math and physics and not the whims of any weak-minded sacks of meat.
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It is taking me a while to get to comments :)
Have you had a lot of success in spelling it out? It seems that it always ends up being that it has to be "self-discovered" with the spelling being a slow introduction over time.
I think for my wife at this point, she is quite happy not understanding. Although I have told her it is imperative that at least she learns the security side of things, as currently I have to rely on other people to help her in my demise.
I think it is because of this that there will be the paradigm shift that starts to connect value to reality again, activity again.
I wouldn't say a lot. But I have got one friend interested in an investing in crypto. That was a year ago. I think it was last month that he thanked me for it. :)
He's not into social media or Hive for that matter. I have asked him to join.
It's understandable that not everyone is into anything and things like macroeconomics in particular. But I recall you mentioning that she has been at least somewhat active on Facebook and other mainstream social media. I know your wife has a Hive account which was created for her when we were on Steem. She used to write long posts from time to time and that her posts received quite a bit of engagement as well. Why did she stop? She's one of those rare people who've got family on Hive, both of whom (Galen and you) have a decent chunk of stake.
This is critical. I suggest you write up thorough instructions just in case. In fact, I should do the same in case I'm forced to leave this party early or become incapacitated. (Fingers crossed for the both of us.)
This is about network effect and not just speculation. It's hard to keep up with everything that's going on even on Hive.
According to https://hiveprojects.io/, there are already 129 applications on HIVE (it's a shame, but I don't even know half of them). I think this is the core value of our community.
P.s.
Waw. Two aphorisms in a row.
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I don't know many either, let alone use them. We need 100M people :)
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Makes a lot of sense if one looks at this amalgamation.
It can also benefit war ravaged countries to rebuild and improve the dire poverty situation in the poor countries.
The question is when will the world wake up to these opportunities?
As long as the current selfish crop keep on pushing their FUD in an attempt to safeguard their massive holdings the growth will remain retarded.
But there is always hope.
For example I like to watch the start of incoming storm clouds.
At first there are faint trendils of advance clouds ripped apart by the winds (FUD), then gradually the bigger clouds (investors) roll in isolated at the start, until they all join to form a massive united front and finally their mass darkens the earth and the lightning bolts arrive.
The Hive communities should make sure that they are those lightning bolts that can strike with precision and obliterate and obstacles in their way.
I don't believe in green long candle
It has a short half life
And back again
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This is just a spike, the run takes time.
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Once the cryptocurrency ecosystem in general goes viral enough, regardless of which parts brings us over, then places like Hive Blog becomes like one of the channels people can choose from when jumping onto alternative tech for the first time.
Oddly, there is still a gap between places like Hive Blog with places like Gab.com which is probably not a blockchain but is at least a step in the right direction. Finding ways to bridge gaps would be ground breaking in helping people see which direction to take for years to come.
Yep. It will be one of the buckets from which people also explore new channels too.
A way to build a tailored community, including branding, very easily, would go a long way to bringing in new communities.
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And a gateway into making Hive Blog go more mainstream, my bet would possibly be on Three Speak but my second guess might be Leo Finance.
Well, I agree with everything but one. I think NFTs are going to be net bad for us all. I think the market (96 million for a GIF?) is just utterly ripe for bubble/scam/ponzi. I really think all the Nigerian Princes are in the market as we speak.
@jarvie had a post today about the problem with copyright and NFTs, which I hadn't even considered. What's to stop someone from making an NFT featuring one of your photographs and a unique token? Is it a copyright violation if the token is unique? There is a really huge mess waiting for a place to happen right now.
I don't think a brutalized NFT market can take down crypto in general but I think it might leave a mark that doesn't heal for a long time. Another good reason for me to not invest anything in ETH.
Just as I was scrolling through my feed after writing this reply I came on an advertisement post for R2D2 and BB8. You think maybe Disney/Lucas might take exception to that???
Most likely they will. Which is why people who create NFTs will be in for a hard lesson. From my perspective - keep it original.
It is the early hype only at this point. It will settle down and the industry will build from it, especially as the NFTs will have a wide use case outside of user generated content.
Yes, that mess is going to be an issue with NFTs, but in the case of copyright, there is still the original to consider, which if digital, will have been made into an NFT before anyone else sees it. On top of this, there will be the verification coming, where not only is the NFT an original, the "signature" of the artist/whoever is also an original, and only in combination will they be verified authentic from the artist.
NFT social media accounts will be a thing - we have them on Hive now. You know that when a post goes up from me - it is me or at least, someone who has access to the NFT "me". If I create a video that embeds "me" into it and that video is then copied and I am extracted out, it is easily falsifiable.
I agree that it will become self policing (or the US Government will find a way to stop it entirely) but the problem is right now.
What is to stop some one from stealing words or photographs from you and selling it as an NFT? Once that transaction takes place the NFT exists and your stuff isn't yours. You can attempt to sue for the value, but good luck with that. There is no 'do over' function at this point and there needs to be.
Yes, it is a problem, but I wonder if in time it makes the "buyer beware" - if it isn't signed by me, it isn't an original. When it comes to art, it is important as if a person buys a forgery, they will lose their money, so it will mean that anything of significant value will have to pass more than a sniff test. Digitally, this is easier, as there can be multiple point s of verification that have to align to make it valid.
You know what I saw just a bit ago? Over in the clickbait column on the right was a guy's picture and the headline "I bought a NFT from Bellamp for $960 and now it's worth $96,000"
What could possibly go wrong?
Your post is reblogged and upvoted by me. It is a good post. Thank you @tarazkp