They're dead, they just don't know it yet

in LeoFinance4 days ago (edited)

At what point does an industry leader recognize its demise?

The creative mind at play?

Back a long time ago, I was teaching English lessons at Nokia, where I had taught many groups over the space of years on both the Mobile and Networks side of the business. One of the groups I had was with a group of about 8 guys who all kind of looked the same and I kid you not, their names all started with M. Mika, Markko, Markku, Miika, Miikka, Markus.... it was a nightmare to tell them apart.

One of the sessions I had was an exercise where I had them draw a simple picture that they would then describe to a partner who would have to draw it from only the explanation. I was asked what they should draw and I said, whatever you want, you can choose. I was pressed again as to what to draw and I said that they can make it simple, a cat, a dog, a house. I gave them a minute or two and as I walked around the room, all I saw people drawing was... cats, dogs and houses.

They were all from the R&D team.

We got this.

This wasn't long after Apple had released their iPhone, which had a brilliant market strategy of creating a cutting edge and much-loved MP3 player - and then putting a phone in it. Nokia had lost a couple percentage points of market share quickly and I asked what they were doing about it. They scoffed - We still have 60% of the market...

A few months later.

We still have 55% of the market...

Even as they were going into what I considered a freefall, they believed they were too big to fail and it got to the point that they were already dead, but just didn't know it yet.

Oh, you're serious

Almost at this time last year, a friend asked me what he should do with the money he was getting form the sale of an apartment and I said, take 10-20% and get into Bitcoin. He went to the bank and asked his financial advisor "what if I put some into Bitcoin?" and she laughed and laughed and replied with tears of joy in her eyes, "Sure, if you want to lose everything you have". I heard today that the same Finnish bank is now advising people to get into Bitcoin.

But, I don't think they have realized that they are already dead.

Don't get me wrong here, the banks aren't going to disappear fast, it is going to take time - but banking as it has been known since its inception is going to change and looking back, it is going to look like a revolution took place - and it would have.

You here and you over there

In the past, we needed banks, as they were the only ones who could organize the transfer and tracking of wealth at a global level, and they were the only ones that could be "trusted" as gatekeepers of our wealth and as they used it to loan out, charge interest upon and grow, they were the ones we turned to when we needed more money than we had in our pockets. But, due to technology, man of the tasks they performed for a fee, are able to be done by us for free or, a fee that gets spread across many participants, not one centralized entity.

We have each become banks and due to the ability to transfer and track even micro amounts with precision, we each do not need to have all the funds available to take part in larger monetary needs, we can contribute at a micro level and still see a relative percentage return. This changes everything in regards to the way money flows and because it no longer has to flow through the banking gateways to have a percentage extracted for services that are no longer needed, the entire economy changes, as power streams shift course.

Disturbed from slumber

This is going to affect all kinds of financial activity and is going to revolutionize the way we interact with each other and collaborate on projects together. Once the banking guardians of the gates are out of the way, borders between people come down and wealth starts to flow freely and more directly. This is going to change everything in regards to everything, as everyone starts to invest for a return, without needing the centralized middlemen and instead using each other as pooled banks.

Yes, there will still be inequalities, but there will also be a change in how even the large investors interact with the economy, as they will not have to tie themselves to an institution, as they will be able to perform all the activities themselves, or as a group - but there will be a great deal more competition and a far greater degree of spread of income earned.

The economy is dead, but most participants just don't know it yet -including the people who have been trained as economists. The reason is that most don't recognize the nail in the coffin is because this level of organization between so many people globally *without a central authority dictating terms, has never been seen before. One of the reasons they don't see it is that most of the people who are financial advisors have been trained in the economy that is known, not the technology that is going to replace what they know.

Move along, nothing to see here

Death is part of the life of all things and nothing remains the same. It is incredible to think that financial advisors who should be experts in risk analysis, have failed to recognize that there is even a threat to their existence. For them, it is going to be like a shot from a snipers rifle in the distance - by the time they hear the sound of fire, it is already too late - they were already dead, they just didn't know it yet. For them, the distance to the technology of what is coming, has masked the true capabilities of it and as such, they ignore it and keep going about their business - until there is no business left to go about.

These are exciting times and they won't be without their challenges, but when we come out the other side, everything will be different. Everything fails eventually, no matter how big or small, everything has its time.

We will eventually be replaced, but now is our time.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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Same stories as the newspapers. Most died (or were consolidated) since they didnt see the Internet as a threat. It is now more than two decades since the Internet started and there are still newspapers but they are dying. They are only around, in my opinion, since there are still people who read them. Give it another couple decades and they will be toast.

The same is true for the banks. It will take a while. However, they were already hit in many ways by FinTech where sectors of their business were taken over by non banks. In the US, more than half the mortgage industry originates outside the banking sector.

Hopefully your friend listened to you and bought Bitcoin and ignored the banker's proposal.

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What will keep the money printers fraction from taking over by force, or at least attempt to. I've witnessed the biggest disinformation campaigns going unchecked over the last few years, none would have ever thought things like that would ever be possible. It's scary, nothing is won until the last battle is fought.

It all depends on us - we are the economic powerhouse, but it hasn't been until now that we have been able to organize ourselves, collaborate and innovate for our own good, without having some authority to answer to for every step, each taking a cut. It is about supply and demand and we need to demand better and since activity is driven by incentive, we must incentivize for better. No one will do it for us.

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The disinformation campaign was going on for the past few decades. The push to a world government is at the core of a lot of what we are seeing. It is crucial that the failings of Europe and the EU experiment.

It will be a daily grind to keep moving more activity to decentralized systems. It will take a while since more infrastructure and applications needs to be built.

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Germany had the same Chancellorette for 20years in a row, that's how smart people 'vote' down here. Can you believe that?

They are only around, in my opinion, since there are still people who read them. Give it another couple decades and they will be toast.

Yep. I used to train at the second largest paper in the country and I asked them what they were doing to engage the young readers - nothing. In the past, there used to be games and things for kids to do on a Sunday morning while their parents read, but digital took out the need and kids no longer have that "sentimental" attachment.

It is going to be interesting how traditional investors deal with the changing money flows. What used to be their bread anbd butter might get volatile or, just be left by the wayside.

Hopefully your friend listened to you and bought Bitcoin and ignored the banker's proposal.

Unfortunately not.

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So it comes to this...someone has built up momentum for them. They learned how to ride that momentum but not how to maintain it or how to increase it. Friction takes its toll. Friction is almost always out of the equations that we make.

Innovative corporations often end up in problems as they grow, as they start to hire for maintenance of the market, not innovation in the industry.

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Well, it's kind of normal to have a period during which you capitalize on your successful innovation. Still, you can only do that for a while. While it's interesting to you audience. But you should not bore them. The thing you shared about that R&D team...It certainly seems like a good wtf revelation.

You had a front row seat for two major collapses: Nokia and Newspapers.

Amazing how people can miss something that affects their industry.

I was in the copier/printer industry for a couple decades and since 2015 told people the industry is toast. Few, including my boss, believed it.

COVID accelerated a process that was already in place. The company I worked for, well the division, is half the size it was a couple years ago.

That is not a sign of an expansive, growing industry.

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I think it is much like people trading, where they focus on the daily ups and downs, while missing the macrotrends of their industry. Many will look at the 20% market dip today and feel the pang of fear, but forget about the 1000% rise in the last 12 months.

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I've come to the conclusion that my Financial Advisor's financial construct is a flawed old system that will eventually implode. He just knows how to do the paperwork and solicits for new contributions and couldn't describe the difference between Keynesian and Austrian economics. I just keep him in my email list for laughs now.

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I just keep him in my email list for laughs now.

lol.

I am looking forward to when these people get to the point they have to buy some crypto.

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The people getting sniped shouldn't be able to hear it right XD

There's always going to be inequalities.

Nope, they don't hear it. It is only those who survive who live to reflect on the shot.

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Well said, everything can be replaced. It's important to be open to new ideas and recognize the potential they may have in future. Too often we get into the habit of defending our views, while time and innovations pass us by.

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Too often we get into the habit of defending our views, while time and innovations pass us by.

Every religion or political party was new - until traditions set in to try and keep them the same, despite the changing landscape.

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It's going to be amazing to watch and see what comes out of this.

I also remember Apple had a competitor in Zen when it came to Ipods. Zen solely focused on mp3 though and failed to include a phone dah!.

People I find fail to look around their surroundings and notice what people are doing.

On any busy morning you can see people on a packed train looking at their phones on social media listening to music. Instead of investing in this when it was emerging, people scoffed and said others should put down their phones and pick up a news paper.

Bizarre.

Great post!

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On any busy morning you can see people on a packed train looking at their phones on social media listening to music. Instead of investing in this when it was emerging,

And many lonely people say "I can't fin a nice person..." while they stare at their screens everywhere they go.

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I don't know what I'd do if I was single as today's world feels as if you're male you cannot approach a women when:

  • in a club
  • at a Cafe
  • in public
  • randomly
  • on dating apps
  • in the same association/committee
  • at the beach
  • out with friends
  • you're out with friends
  • when they're at work
  • when you're at work
  • on social media or any form of media
  • through a friend
  • at all

But women can go gold digging and annoy men at work

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/7news.com.au/lifestyle/woman-26-heads-to-bunnings-in-an-attempt-to-find-a-husband-after-giving-up-on-online-dating-c-1749788.amp

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It is a strange world of interpersonal relationships now.

I read a few lines of that story when it came out and couldn't read more - it makes me sick what passes for news these days. I read another article from the same paper about relationship advice for women so that the woman can enjoy sex more - the advice was literally, "find someone who fucks better than your current partner" :D

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Yup insane, the world at times feels like it has gone completely bonkers.

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Haha, you're completely right. The banks are dead, at least as we know them now. Obviously, the financial sector will be the first to change, although I would expect the changes or diversification to take place earlier elsewhere, in logistics or in transport for example ...

I agree. I see that it is going to undermine at many points, all heading in a similar direction. It will be hard for many to spot, but they will feel the changes taking place until it is obvious.

"Looking back, it was inevitable"

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Slowly at first, then all at once.

DeFi is the kill shot for banking.

The process of banking has two functions: storage of capital (solved by crypto generally) and the allocation of capital to productive uses (solved by defi).

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Yep. I do think it is going to take a while for the pendulum to swing, but the velocity will increase as volatility on the legacy does.

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Oh wow, that is totally crazy. I can't imagine having to look someone in the eye each month and hear them talking like they are still captain of the ship while it is slowly sinking around them. It definitely looks like things are starting to take a turn for the banks. Even in the past five years I have seen so many of them start to consolidate and shut down branches because the demand just isn't there like it was.

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Even in the past five years I have seen so many of them start to consolidate and shut down branches because the demand just isn't there like it was.

Part of this is greed as they push services online - but what they might not recognize yet is that locals will open up their own digital branches to replace them locally.

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Have you ever heard of Ally Bank? 100% online. Zero branches. I opened an account with them to handle all of my crypto transactions.