Too bearish on the way up, too bullish on the buyback opportunity on the way down...
My life as a trader.
Expectation:
Taken from 11pm Finnish time last night after the first pump:
Reality:
What actually happened:
As you can see, while I missed the top, my bullish buyback greed was looking for a low at 38-40 to bounce off, but unfortunately, it only dropped to 41.5, before bouncing up to 66.
That sucks.
But has happened so often that you'd think I'd learn by now and push the buyback up a little higher. That 2-3% difference would have gained me 15% more tokens from the sell, before reselling on the way up again, where I would have likely added 40%.
Hypothetically with 100 Hive sold at a 49c average, I would have had 49 dollars worth. Buying back at 42c would have given me 116 HIVE, a gain of 16%. Selling at 40% up would have given an average of ~59c and amounted to 70 dollars worth - that is not a bad return.
If it happened.
But it rarely does happen that way, at least in the short-term trades for me. Long-term as a holder, all is good, there will be other opportunities and 3-5 dollar Hive isn't that far away, is it?
It is funny though in many respects, as while I am currently working my ass off to close the quarter and score a bonus, the value of my bonus pales to near nothing in comparison to how much change there is in my Hive account value. Getting that trade right last night instead of missing the buyback, would have covered my next couple bonuses. However, I have a weird relationship with crypto, as if it isn't there to ever spend - unlike fiat, that I don't want to hold onto at all and it just burns a hole in my pocket.
I am getting better at handling my money, which is good since I am near mid-forties already, but I am still far from well-disciplined. This comes as a surprise to some people who know me from a professional sense, but not to those who know me personally. Still - practice makes perfect. And I am getting plenty of practice.
Crypto has become such a massive part of my life now in several ways that it is hard to imagine my life and daily routines without it. However, going back almost 6 years, I couldn't have predicted what the future would have looked like with it. It has been a shot out of the dark in terms of getting into it and where it has led my professionally and personally, which is makes it even more compelling for me to participate, because while it is daily life and routine, it is still "exotic" for many people and they don't dare travel too close.
It is like a person from Scandinavia choosing to move to a tropical rainforest, or someone scared of heights going skydiving. Even if they might want to experience different or feel the thrill, it is such a huge step because it is so different to the normal. For most people, including many investors, crypto is a language that they just aren't willing to learn, because they are so scared of entering into a place where that language is spoken. Instead, they imagine themselves as knowledgeable enough to understand what it is to take part.
But, as someone who had a pretty good imagination, I never expected this!
And, I am not talking about the value of tokens and such, I mean the feeling connected to relative strangers, taking part in a financial movement that could fundamentally change the economy, or being an activist of a kind for the betterment of humanity. Also, I never imagined myself as a content creator, blogger, or social media person of any kind at all.
It isn't my nature.
So why is it now? Some will of course cite the potential for financial reward and while true, that is more of a byproduct of the activity, a reaction to action. But, it is true that the financial reward changes the incentive to take part at all kinds of levels, because it creates an economy amongst the users, connecting them in all kinds of relationships for different reasons.
This makes Web3 fundamentally different to Web2, as while there is plenty of commerce happening online now, much of it is outside of the reach of the daily user and instead, the vast majority of value is reserved for the corporations. The only reason there is any trickledown at all from their coffers to content creators is, because it makes business sense in order to attract a userbase. If they could reduce their customer acquisition costs by cutting out content creator reward and still grow, they would.
And again, this is another reason that makes it compelling to interact here than elsewhere. Here on Hive and in crypto in general, I own my experience and can choose how and where I spend my time and who I interact with. A lot is still out of my control, but it is more likely to be within the ecosystem of control of others like me, people who are owning their experience too.
It makes this a fantastic place to interact, learn and invest, because it is ours.
While I make a lot of trade "errors" in regards to bulls and bears - I am at least so far, always bullish on Hive - no matter the price. Missing a trade here and there doesn't matter in the bigger picture - missing the boat on the biggest EVER change to the global economy, well, that is not a boat I want to miss, because of what it means for all of us.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I'm in exactly the same space, and when Gresham's Law kicks in for enough people; the world is going to get very interesting. I'm not here to make money, I'm here to avoid it.
Make a life perhaps :)
Agree with you, no better place to learn than with tokens, after all stock markets move at speed with outside prospectors weaving prices most cannot afford to delve around in,
Starting to learn using crypto is an adventure many have never undertaken previously, willing to learn, get bad end of the stick every so often yet come back to learn again.
Well done stepping out of your comfort zone learning to trade.
There are also all of the fees associated with stock trades, whereas here, there are plenty of places where the fees are tiny.
I wonder how bad the bad end of the stick is, 5 years down the track? :)
Long term projection is good, always keep more than one token running, not too many since keeping track of them can also create more pain that pleasure.
Five years down the track I think more will enter the crypto world, possibly start using as a form of trading, patience required as people become interested.
Ah, I was just into that
thing in my comment. The bad end of the stick is good for your health.
Cheers!
Teaches us more getting the bad end of the stick, we don't forget that quickly in future 😅become more observant.
I'm so guilty of the same thing. When I set triggers, if I don't catch them when I'm not looking, I have a horrible habit of adjusting them according to greed factor as I get excited. Never works out.
The greed is strong - just a little lower before the buy, just a little higher before the sell!
I feel very similar to this. I like to think of it as a hobby. I do hope that one day it is so common that it is more than just a hobby, but for now, that is the safest and best way for me to look at it.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
One day, it will be your retirement lifestyle - travelling the world :)
I managed to buy some hive with my HBD at 2.5 to a 2.8 range several days last week. When I saw it turn for the last two days I bought some of my HBD back with Hive at 1.5 to 1.7 range. Not big trades just 1 or 2 HBD at a time buying and selling both ways.
I want to get a liquid pool of both HIVE and HBD around 100 so I can make bigger plays in the future, but still continue to grow my accounts for Hive staked and HBD in savings.
I am still pretty amazed at starting with nothing basically and having 11,000 staked HIVE and earning 20-22 Hive a week just looking at and reading post on Hive. I am not much of a content creator, never really have been, but I still like to read, look and listen to hive post.
It is a good deal for sure - I trades a bit of HIVE back to HBD too - after swapping the other way over the last few weeks.
I really hope that in a few years from now, that stake will be 20k, earning 40 HIVE and bringing in 200 in value for you weekly :)
that would be a nice retirement supplement. If I ever get all these medical bills paid, I may be able to invest in a few years.
Considering - I have been unlucky with health and the need for medical things, but lucky I live in places it is largely covered. There are still costs of being ill that have taken a heavy toll through life, but that is another story.
It never ends the health things, at least the hospitals and doctors are willing to work with people when they can not afford to pay.
The time spent for doctor visits and having to go to get meds, does take a lot out of enjoying a day.
Are you getting used to your cpap thing for sleeping? Just one more of those take the joy out of the day or night things. I look forward to the day I can get at least a 5 hour stretch of uninterrupted sleep, and not have to get up and pee, the doc says maybe in a year for that to happen if the meds work.
There is all the time illness takes, but at least in my case, I think the biggest impact has been on my energy and I have no idea what effects it has had on my motivations and abilities other than "significant".
CPAP is going well and I feel more rested in the morning. It is a bit uncomfortable at the moment as it is so warm at night in our house with the weather being Finnish hot, but I am coping.
On the pee thing - my father-in-law used to take medication for it and about two years ago got a CPAP machine for snoring/sleep apnea and now, doesn't need to get up at all to pee.
I hope the meds will help me.
Our weather has been yo-yo'ing hot one day then cold the next yesterday (Monday) was 12C and today we were at 22C. I know what you mean about to hot at night, I look forward to the cooler days for sleeping.
I've been hearing this saying lately...
Improvement takes time. The fall could be swift.
Short-term, I made yet another mistake with a small (for now) amount of Hive yesterday, assuming that Hive-engine's BTC Swap price followed the general trend so I traded without checking what the actual worth of my trade was compared to that general trend. I guess I'll be stuck with some Swap tokens for the time being.
I'm telling this because I could have made that second mistake and accepted a 30 % loss immediately trading back to my "safe place" once disappointed with my actions. Done this before, perhaps at a different percentage but experience showed me...that being patient is more likely to get you in a favorable position than being scared things would never go your way ever again.
So, making mistakes all the way is my nature, it would seem. But just by participating I am still happily better off.
Besides, while traditional school teaches you to try and avoid mistakes and failures...fail small and fail fast is a good thing to do in life and business. If you ever learn from it, that is.
Too early in the morning for a
!BEER
?
If the bear is very large, perhaps it takes the back door ;D
I think that trading kicks this into high gear, where we feel like that missed opportunity (how ever small or large) is the only one we will ever have a again - like opportunity only knocks once, even though it is always present.
But as you noted, "fail small and fast" seems to be the traders way - in the hope for "succeed occasionally large"
I think that saying was designed for skyscraper environment and offices on the 104th floor or something. Besides, those guys on Wallstreet are likely to have some large windows designed for bears. Otherwise, it would be considered a sign of poor planning. Oh, wait...
Is it ever too early?
And for me, HIVE has become a massive part of my daily life. I thought to have a break in this summer, but I didn't want then because I might have broken off HIVE.
I know quite a few who have had extended breaks and come back, but like any hobby, it can cause a disconnection - lose that loving feeling.
Hello Mr @tarazkp
You really enjoy your world. How do you make a "confession" that crypto has become a routine and your daily life, and in fact you have lived it for about 6 years with various "practices" that have taught you a lot in the world of cryptocurrencies. While out there some people do not dare to take any risks.
I impress your simple analysis that you sell 100 Hives when the price goes up, and buy them back when the price goes down and yours becomes 116 Hives. Simple.
I'll try your method, with a peek at the odds curve and I will take a lesson from it too.
Just remember, trade at your own risk! :D
Short, concise, clear and deep meaning.
Thank you for this valuable advice.
The question for me is always "is this fun", accumulation of wealth is one thing, I have to enjoy what I am spending my time doing. From what you've said you are enjoying the rollercoaster, so keep learning and building it up bit by bit. Thanks for sharing your experience - the emotion of trading is often the thing that gets people.
Do what you love, and you will never stop working for it :)
Very much agree and very happy to be on board too. Best regards!
Have a great one!
That's definitely a personal choice to take in handling situations which is a personal decision especially when engaging in Crypto to trade.
If you don't own your own experience, you are always a slave.
Me too is amazing how people are getting more familiar with crypto, that's a sign that is really really the future.
Let's see - the next few years are critical for the industry.
That's right it will only take time
The husband has never been into crypto although he knew the mechanics of trading stocks, analyzing charts and all. He said his trading days are over...I guess "old" people just want to have peace in life now that we are retired. No matter what convincing I do to invest in crypto... no way.
I feel the same sentiments as yours. I guess we are actually on the lookout for profits all the time when we trade, that´s the purpose, right? We set sell even if takes longer to achieve the set price... On the other hand, when we missed the Dip, we feel bad not being able to stack much. The greed in us is real strong!
Doesn't it add something interesting for "old people" :D
"Greed is good" to some extent, as far as it is one of the reasons that we keep developing and advancing - we are programmed to want more - more of what, well, that is the problem :)
LOL, you are right...
The earning aspect is one of the reasons, why some continue to post on Hive. Some do it out of necessity to earn extra income....others write out of passion and make it a hobby and at the same time earn from it. I think "old" people just simply avoid the learning process and I think that is not good. If the mind is idle, there is a chance that one could have Alzheimer. TBH, if I would tell you, the husband does not want to learn how to use the cp even if he just needs to click the buttons here and there... The only time he uses a cp is when he needs a confirmation code to process his remittances.... hahaha.
And I am kind of the opposite of him... Though "old" as I am ( I maybe the oldest Hiver on the blockchain at past mid 60 ), I am still learning the ropes of crypto trading and had been quite a bit advance compared to my Hive friends. Knowledge is wisdom!
Wait, you didn't buy the absolute bottom and sell the absolute top?
Hugely disappointing mate...
;)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I am kicking myself...
Though to be fair - I did pick one of the tops, as it didn't bite through all of my order ;D
too bearish , too bullish , recognize volatility when you see one is what crypto exudes.
Yes ! the crypto market has been on the bearish side in the past few months but for individuals locked on the Hive platform they find so much solace. Through Hive engagements we are provided the premium opportunity to lubricate through this present hard / friction-like times in the cryptosphere .
View or trade
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I never dreamed I would be a part of this world, yet now, I can't think of not being here.