What to do, what to do?

in LeoFinance13 days ago

One of my new hobbies has been to look at the decreasing HIVE supply, which over the last week has reduced quite dramatically on the back of HBD Stabilizer activity. In fact, it has so far dropped 148,335 HIVE, which is about an average of 20,000 HIVE a day. If this did happen to stay constant for a year, it would be, 7.3M HIVE, or 1.9% of the entire HIVE supply to date.

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That is a pretty big reduction. With HIVE market price lower at the moment, I would like to see a very big spike in the value of HBD, so that a lot of HIVE could be bought and pushed into the HDF, taking it out of circulation. While not everyone is a fan, it is actually a pretty cool mechanism, like an in-built buyback and sink function.

31st March
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3rd April
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7th April (nowish)
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While the HIVE price has been collapsing the last few days, the entire market has turned red, so if people are looking for an opportunity to get in with fiat into a bull-market year, this might be a solid opportunity to enter.

It is funny to think that it was only a few weeks ago that people were talking that "if HIVE hit 50 cents" they would look to sell, but now 50 cents seems low. This creates a weirdness as well, as if it seems low now, why did it seem like a good place to sell then?

We get used to conditions very quickly.

My portfolio has lost "a little" ground over the last days, but should it concern me, is this the end of the bull market, are the bears going to win the tug of war and drive prices down from here, back to the dark ages of January 2021? I don't think so.

This is total market capitalization and it crossed 2 trillion for the first time a day or two ago, but currently rests at about 1.9 Trillion.

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This is about the same time period January to mid-April in 2017.

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Looks similar, though the volume has changed a lot. Back at the peak of 2017/18, there was 66B in traded volume, currently it is between 130 and 200 billion daily. Obviously this is affected by the changing value of Bitcoin and other cryptos like Eth at all time highs, but it is a decent amount.

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I don't know what happened on those two days in March recently, but while there has been 200B in trade in 24h the last few days, the first red circle saw 8 trillion and the second 5 trillion in market trade. I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, Anyone know? Glitch in the chart perhaps? At least, the market cap didn't seem to move that much (dip on the second), considering even the smaller spike is 25x the normal volume.

Anyway, it could very well be that the bullrun is over for the year before it really got started and now we will have to wait another four years until the next opportunity. You going to sell now to capitalize on the lows two years from now?

A couple clicks and everything you hold (that isn't time-locked) could be liquidated into fiat - ready to pull the trigger?

I think that this is a part of trading that most people don't spend that much time thinking about, where they set prices to sell at on the way up, but not on the way down. Much of the difficulty of mindset around trading is in this area, where people become uncertain, looking at their gains of the past and not wanting to lose them, but also not wanting to lose out on the gains of the future that they would realize if selling and the markets turned.

For most and including myself in this pack, I am guessing these dips in the bull are the hardest part of being in crypto, as at the depth of the bear, there is the expectation that things will turn upward, but in the bull, there is the unanswerable question of "is this the top?"

No one wants to be left holding a losing bag. No one wants to sell early.

If only I had, what if I, could I possibly...

No one can tell you what to do in these situations, but whatever you decide, make sure it is a decision that you are willing to live with because, you are going to have to live with it.

One good thing to remember is, it is generally not the end of the world to make errors of judgement in this area.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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Nice thoughts and I couldn’t agree more, a month ago if given the opportunity 90% of Hivers would have sold their Hive for 50cents in one go.

Today, most would not sell under a dollar and 50 cents seems like a bargain !

I guess I am going to buy some LEO and Hive waiting for the next leg !

BRB, I am calling my bank 🏦

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I bought some over the last couple days, last buy cleared this morning. Let's see what the next weeks will bring :)

Yes leo still strong than others , the daily volume is also the five highest

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There is always the opportunity to cash in, I guess it is a game of patience and usually those who have it end up winning the most. Holding a losing bag is something that nobody wants, but as volatility is pretty much the norm, you never know.

Volatility is definitely the norm, best work with it. Part of thatis dealing with all the emotional ups and downs that come along with expectations unmet, hopes dashed and occasionally, wildest dreams coming true :)

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What's your wildest dream when it comes to crypto?

…it could very well be that the bullrun is over for the year before it really got started and now we will have to wait another four years until the next opportunity.

I’m crossing my fingers, hoping for a big spike in the fall. Then sell most of my GBTC and wait for the 2023 lows to buy back in.

Well, that’s the perfect scenario. But how often do things work out perfectly?

I’m willing to trade in and out of Bitcoin, but with Hive I just hodl through thick and thin.

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A fall spike is likely I think and 2023 I good buy point. What I wonder is, how far back will it regress if trillions are pouring in? The "mean" is continually rising, depending on where people entered.

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That chart from PlanB suggests an entry point in the spring of 2023 but, yeah, it’s a real gamble. Retail investors may have gotten over their FOMO by then but corporate and state buyers might still be going strong. That’s why even if it spikes this fall, I won’t be selling all.

!ENGAGE25

Thank you for your engagement on this post, you have recieved ENGAGE tokens.

This really is the catch 22 of trading. Where do we sell has always been a hard one for most leaving many with a bad taste in their mouth for a simple error in judgment. There are always some lucky ones who seem to know just when to sell for max profits but in the long game accumulation is the name of the game.

Nice to still see you here brother.

You hear about the people who got the tops and bottoms like you hear about gambler wins, not all the misses.

I have managed to pick up about 35% more than I had on market over the last couple weeks, plus distribute a bit wider. Not bad, though I missed the low low.

Hope you are well.

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I thought you'd like this rep :

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That's funny seeing the story I'm posting.

Yep. Pity I have no liquid left to buy this dip. I did sell at 97 cents and buy back in at 80, obviously could of held off a bit longer lol. The hive fall has been very low volume so I expect it to bounce back very strongly when the volume comes in. If it was volume pushing it down I would be worried. The Kimchi premium remains strong for Hive which I see as very bullish also as the pumps always come out of KRW (Hive/KRW still over 60 cents compared to 50 cents against BTC or USDT ).

I have been buying back since the day after the spike almost. Most I have bought under 1200 sats though, so not too bad.

The hive fall has been very low volume so I expect it to bounce back very strongly when the volume comes in

Yep, must don't look at this, they just see the price and panic sell and then miss the rise.

Kimchi premium :D

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Seems all the social coins live and die by the Kimchi premium. If you ever see it go negative you know its time to run.

That is too funny about the people wanting to sell at $.50. It would take a 100x increase over that for me to even consider I think. $50 Hive would be a whole different story. Even then I might not sell. Why give up the weekly rewards! I do feel like I should be picking up more of something right now though.

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Even then I might not sell. Why give up the weekly rewards!

People don't get this yet - they see the trickle of valueless Hive and sell thinking that is the way it will always be.

There are options, just time it well and don't wait too long - but don't rush in either :D

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Yeah, for sure. I mean at $50 per Hive I'd be pulling in enough money per week to actually live on, so why kill the goose that lays the golden egg!

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We saw the first run from the 12 cent to the mid 20's then a pull back to the high teens. That lasted for a short time, then another rise to the mid 30's and a pull back to the mid 20's. Then the short blast to 90's and a slight pull back to the 70's a little stabilization, then another pull back to the now of mid 50's.

I think the next spike will be to the 1.10 side in about a week and a half, just purely a guess no charts looked at no trends looked at, (I don't really know how to read the charts), just a glimpse of the past 3 months activities here and with bitcoin. Tax time is almost over, the worry concern of having enough funds to pay for taxes passes and then the rebuild of wealth begins anew.

I do like this roller coaster ride we have been having, especially with HBD.

Tax time is almost over, the worry concern of having enough funds to pay for taxes passes and then the rebuild of wealth begins anew.

I think this is a big factor concerning the US and probably other countries. I wonder how many companies will add "bitcoin" to their budgeting plans.

My estimate for the next large run is closing in on 1.50 and a pull back to about 1. Would be nice. :)

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That would be a nice price rise. I did sell a few HBS's when HIVE hit 0.90, and then bought some hive at the 0.70 price and a little bit more at the 0.60 price. So any rise above 0.70 would be good.

Some invest long term factoring risk in with any investing units. Traders take risk daily into accounting.

Good source of information to come back to and go over a couple of times.

@tipu curate

I have wondered if anyone is "born" a trader - or if it is a mindset that just has to be learned.

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Very few "naturals" with a good feel for markets and market mood, most end up learning trading working at it daily, hit and miss investments eventually evolving into more accurate decision making. Normally quiet people mention trades @carrinm has a wealth of knowledge/experience.

I did find some hive on an exhange I forgot about, 6000 in fact. I was tempted to power it up but I sold it at 0.8 and am happy I did.
I diversified as I have done for a while now but also took out 2k into stablecoins. I am slowly growing my amount of stablecoins going further into this bull cycle.

  • If the market then goes down I have taken profit and I can buy back in if I want
  • if the market goes up I have a nice amount that is making me about 10% roi which is also nothing to sneeze at

this is a win win for me and if we enter a bear market I will be a lot better off then before

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nice find! :)

I wsa collecting sables too and do have some, but also feel that it is too early to hold too much in stables, considering the market potential - though I also am looking at some of the tokens I hold and thinking "is now the right time"

Why couldn't we just get rid of HBD entirely in the next hard fork?

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Umm - it could be done, but there would also be a massive amount of value to have a decentralized stablecoin, native to Hive. So I am guess there are still some things to try.

Also, at the current rate, the total HIVE supply would be cut by about 6-7% over the next year, whilst simulataneously topping up the HDF - which is not a bad "fail" result. I don't expect it to continue this way as HIVE increases in price though.

Yes, stable coin would give people peace of mind.

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I went ahead and bought at level 0.51, as soon as the other crypto goes up I think we won't see again this level for some long time. It's like buying bitcoin at 15000, hell that is cheap now.

Yeah, I think it is pretty cheap too - but i was also buying at 12 cents - so it seems a bit more expensive. :)

Well, things are going up for now😍 up 13% ^^

For a moment I thought you were saying you bought bitcoin at 0.12 🤓

If you sell a little all the time you eventually sell some at the top .... if you buy a little all the time you always buy some at the bottom. I buy and sell all day long.

Yep - buy back in a little at a time, always increasing - most want fast and big wins -so miss big.

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Diversification is the Key .... Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, BitcoinCash, Cub, Leo, Hive, ... hodl them all until you retire. Then sell a little to buy some land around the Great Lakes.

A little crypto here and there adds up to $1,000,000 over 3-4 years.

Just hold on, or sell 50% and conserv the rest it is the only way,
i guess.
or buy cubs and leo that is the other way to preserving value.

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Meh at these prices, just hold.

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Right, this Is the way to continued without stress, because the markets come to crazy.

The momentum fades and life continues.
Hard to see uphill right now with Hive.
The community needs to keep trying HBD stabilizer
so less Hive reaches the market.
It looks like April is acting much like March should act.

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Moving up won't take long I think.

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indeed, 50 cents is a sale! :)

Indeed. I wonder how many people bought.

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I bought close to 15k :)

I just bought my first bit of HIVE a day ago because the price seemed low enough to me. Happy to be HODLing along with you guys even with my tiny amounts haha

Congrats. It is a big step and I hope you will enjoy your holdage :)

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It is good opportunity to buy more hive
but I am looking for the bottom
I said 0.6 then 0.55 but waiting is it 0.5 $ ?

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Did you find the bottom?

I remember people saying 12c is too much, I am looking for 11c. At 11, they were looking for 10. At 500% up, being only 470% up doesn't change much :)

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Follow the whales... do what they do. Sell high, buy back lower.

After all of your efforts on Hive here, I highly recommend not getting so close to a bear.

Difficult for us when the price is low, especailly as our source of income is on posting and the posting rewards have been cut in half. But as they say. A Luta Continua!

Great post :)

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Check out the last post from @hivebuzz:

Feedback from the April 1st Hive Power Up Day

There are a lot of expensive lessons between here, and me being an experienced trader.
Hodler is much easier. Doesn't have all those expensive lessons.
Literally the only thing I've sold is my airdropped HUNT tokens; and they've since gone 10x.
I know I get messages daily, from guys who regret trading in and out of Splinterlands cards for the last couple of years.

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I totally agree with you.

Well, I am not particular about selling now as I have enough fiat to cover my expenses for at least 2-3 months. I think the task for me would be to maintain my HP at 3k whilst I settle what needs to be settled. I still envision hive at $2 sometime this year, so I am holding for now. I don't like to play the market, not so good at it yet. I just stick to my long-term plans.

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