Everyone is looking for who is going to put together an ascent similar to what China did.
The challenge here is that the world is rapidly changing. This means we have to adjust our focus somewhat to see what is going to take place.
As we saw in the world without the United States the geopolitical arena is going to change greatly. The United States is taking their ball and going on. The events is Afghanistan are just the latest in a series of moves reducing deployments.
The United States has a major advantage over the rest of the world. Its benefit from the global economy was much less since it is, by far, the largest importer. Since the U.S. became a net exporter of oil, that totally changed its relationship in the world.
As the United States pulls back, many are theorizing, that this could lead to different conflicts around the world. Regional powers will arise as the U.S. picks and chooses where it wants to get involved.
The North American Union
The United States simply can relax at home. It now has everything it needs which is going to put Mexico in a strong position.
NAFTA is a trade agreement that is going to work out well for the entire continent. The two major beneficiaries are the U.S. and Mexico. Canada is one that will do fine yet has demographic issues that are going to hinder it going forward.
On the southern side, Mexico has the demographics that the US wants. Here is a chart of how their situation broke down in 2018.
Source
That is ideal. This chart screams consumerism. It is the epitome of what a long-term, growing economy will look like. A large portion of the population is going to be in the "spending years" where children lead to purchases of homes, cars, schooling, and a host of other high ticket items.
As a comparison, here is China's demographic chart.
Source
It is pretty easy to see the difference. China will have the oldest population in the world in a decade.
Is it any wonder that Mexico is now the United States' largest trading partner?
U.S.-Mexico Complimentary Union
The United States and Mexico align perfectly. In addition to the demographics, Mexico has a lot of low skilled labor. This is required for the US going forward.
One of the biggest advantages the U.S. has is a lot of technology. This filters through all aspects of the society, including education. The country has some of the most advanced upper level education systems in the world.
This means that innovators and designers are aplenty. This is what the nation does well. Mexico, for various reasons, is not at this point. The educational system is lacking.
Ultimately, we see a relationship forming whereby the U.S. will handle the innovation and Mexico the execution. This will mean a ton of investment heading from the United States to Mexico.
Of course, Mexico, like many second world nations, is not the safest place to be. Here is where US foreign policy will focus its attention. Pulling out of Afghanistan and other countries of conflict mean there are plenty of troops to utilize where needed.
The drug cartels are legendary in Mexico. Do not be surprised to see the US lending some support to the Mexicans. This will not come in the form of the DEA or other policing agencies. Instead, you will see the military called up on to go clean up the place.
Here we see the US government protecting the interest in American businesses. Those who operate elsewhere, might have to take matters into their own hands.
On the southern border the US has the ideal demographic ally to keep its international business relations alive with. Anything imported is much closer to home, which will still keep prices down. This will serve the American market well.
Mexico Wealth Will Grow
All the money that the US and its associated companies are going to be throwing around will significantly increase the wealth of that country. We are going to see factories be built out, manufacturing trillions of dollars worth of products mostly destined to head north.
Fortunately, there will be a percent of it consumed at home which the US companies are banking up. As the middle class forms in Mexico, those families will need the basics that everyone else has. Thus, as housing is constructed and sold, we will see the sale of appliances, electronics, furniture, and automobiles.
The geography makes it ideal. It is also easy to ship products up the West coast or into the Gulf of Mexico. At this level, international commerce will be safe since both countries are blanked by two oceans, both of which the US controls.
Another reason why this transition is going to take place is because of the fact that, during the lockdowns, companies realized how bad their supply chains were disrupted. Having the vast portion of the world's manufacturing done in two major areas in China is not in the interest of most. This caused them to rethink a lot of this.
Intel, for example, is in the process of building to new chip manufacturing plants in Arizona. This will take a couple years to complete but is showing how companies are looking to bring production increases closer to home.
For this reason, Mexico is an ideal location. The demographics coupled with advances in technology mean that the US stands to benefit from having a low cost producer to the south. Plus, the exports to Mexico are only topped presently by Canada. That will certainly change in the next few years as the Mexican economy grows.
The US also important more than $500 billion per year from China. Look for this number to go down as this shift takes place and more is manufactured on the North American continent.
For these reasons, we can expect Mexico to be the global success story over the next 30 years. What China did from the 1985 to 2015 will be replicated by Mexico as we head into the middle of the century.
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A country that has an enormous power is Brazil. Unfortunately the politicians here end it.
The country is large, having the world's largest reserves of several important items, especially water.
We supply a good part of the world with food with our agricultural productions.
But as I say, politicians just want the money for themselves. You don't invest and you don't create anything here. We only sell to buy back made more expensive...
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There are going to be regional fights. Brazil might end up dominating the South and Central American regions.
Someone is going to take charge there.
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I wasn't really paying attention to Mexico as much but I might have to keep an eye on it.
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Yeah kind of surprising to find out they are the largest trade partner with the US.
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The problem is if the government of US of A allows Mexico to go big. Mexico is easier to interfere in comparing with China; and I would not expect Mexico to have the will or tools to fight back (just like Japan in 90s/2000s).
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China knows this and is trying to do business with México too.
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Thank you for sharing update.