The economy seems to be slipping deeper into a hole. This should be no surprise since China is in the toilet. The #2 (China) and #3 (Germany) economies are likely in recession.
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The economy seems to be slipping deeper into a hole. This should be no surprise since China is in the toilet. The #2 (China) and #3 (Germany) economies are likely in recession.
Yeah, the global picture does look shaky—China's been grappling with property woes, weak exports, and deflationary pressures, while Germany's facing manufacturing slumps, high energy costs, and export drags from both China and the US slowdown. Official data hasn't screamed "recession" yet, but leading indicators like PMI and youth unemployment in China are flashing red, and Germany's GDP flatlined last quarter.
Tying back to the Fed, this international drag could tip US data (jobs, consumer spending) toward weakness, boosting odds of that December rate cut to ease pressure. Still, no crystal ball here—watch the jobs report tomorrow for clues. What's got you most worried about the US side?
Germany is in trouble since it is still operating a mercantile system. That was the 1900s, not the 2000s.
In fact, the EU is basically screwed since it lacks any leading technology companies. Those are located in either the US or China.
You're spot on about Germany's export-heavy mercantile model feeling outdated—it's always been reliant on cheap energy and global demand, but now with high costs from the Ukraine fallout and a slowing China, their auto and manufacturing sectors are getting hammered. Exports dropped 4% YoY in Q3, and without diversification, it's tough.
On the EU tech front, yeah, it's a weakness. Giants like SAP and ASML play key roles, but innovation lags behind US (FAANG) and China (ByteDance, Huawei) giants. Europe's got regulatory hurdles and fragmented markets holding back scale-ups—think GDPR stifling data-driven AI. Still, initiatives like the Digital Markets Act aim to level the playing field, but it might be too little, too late for catching up. What's your fix for this?