Thought I'd share some interesting findings while charting the other day. I first noticed this looking at Doge price and I think it's a great example of what a real altseason could look like. I will start off with my usual disclaimer however, I'm not a financial advisor nor do I pretend to be one on the internet. Please consult with a licensed financial professional for financial advice, not some clown on the internet who calls himself The Dood. With that out of the way, lets take a look at what is currently going on in the crypto markets.
The price of BTC is curently at $58K USD at the time of this writing. As the price of bitcoin rises the price of several altcoins seem to be following the BTC price action in USD! However, not many people are paying attention to the upside potential in BTC SATS. I first noticed this looking at the DOGE chart at the start of its rally.
So you can see as the price of BTC started to rise so did the price of Doge in USD. Now lets look at the price action in Satoshis.
You can now see that as the DOGE rally progressed the price in Satoshis began to rise topping out around 8 cents. I do believe that's an ATH for DOGE.
Now the interesting part that nobody is really talking about is that this is normal price action for DOGECOIN. Anyone that has been trading for awhile knows that you buy DOGE when it starts to dip below the 30 SAT range, accumulate for as long as it sits below 30 sats, then start selling on the way up over 100 sats. I think the highest I've ever seen DOGE was around 300 satoshi. As a general rule of thumb, I tend to empty my bag in the 200 SAT and above range. Again, not financial advice this is just how I've traded DOGE over the last 5 or 6 years and it has never disappointed. Looking at this 5 year chart you see this is pretty standard price action for Doge / BTC trading pairs.
Side note: IDK if DOGE is going to $1. One thing I've learned about crypto is anything is possible. I'm more than skeptical of $1 DOGE but I also never believed we'd see 50K BTC. What I do know is that this is pretty standard price action for Dogecoin and a possible harbinger of good fortune for other altcoins.
Let's Take A Look At Some Other Winners!
I think Dogecoin is trying to show us what a REAL altseason could look like in 2021!
WAVES
Waves rarely disappoints and is touching on ATH price ranges. For me, this was a real eye opener as I charted last night. For anyone that doesn't know WAVES is an active and established project and has been around for several years. Development continues and there is a very active community. I always look for active projects and rarely buy into dead projects with no community or development.
I'm not sure what the WAVES ATH was but I'm pretty sure it was somewhere in the $15 - $20 USD range. Currently we're at $12 and climbing. That chart looks pretty impressive. Also a little intimidating to a guy like me that rarely chases tops. I just don't buy pumps! I look for bottoms, and I look for breakout potentials. If i don't find them, I walk away! I NEVER BUY TOPS! OK, maybe once or twice. FOMO gets the best of all of us. Let's take a look at this same chart in Satoshis.
Man what a different story this is! WAVES is following the price of BTC in USD. The current BTC price is lifting the WAVES price in USD amount. Look at the potential growth in Satoshis. It doesn't even look like a rally! It's barely budged!
Lets say we touch on that .0005 candle. Seems like a reasonable target to me. At .0005 SAT the price of WAVES is now $29 USD as long as BTC stays in this price range. We're looking at a double up from the current price of $12. Now looking at that other big green dildo with the nice wick if we touch on .001 we're looking at a price of $58 if bitcoin price stays in this range.
LITECOIN
We can play out this exact same scenario with Litecoin and several other tried and true well established classics! Current price of LTC is $238... Looking at the USD chart, I'd never chase this and might even consider putting in a short. Honestly, I've already tried a couple times. Shorts aren't working for me, I wonder why?
Now looking at the upside potential in SATS, this is completely staggering! Again, there hasn't been a rally in Satoshis. Litecoin almost always follows Bitcoin up! At the chart high of .02 SATS Litecoin now has the potential of being at $1200. The chart in SATS hasn't really even budged yet.
HIVE
I wanted to include HIVE here but because we're a fork of STEEM the data isn't exactly perfect. Just looking at the Binance chart in SATS the potential upside is around $1.78. If you look at historical data from STEEM, you see the potential upside is much higher. Again, be careful, forked projects are a little different when comparing chart data. The original project generally outperforms the fork but hopefully we'll become the exception to that rule. The $1.78 price range with current data seems an appropriate target however.
When Alt Season?
Although it feels like AltSeason, in all reality, AltSeason hasn't even started yet. Most of these charts haven't budged. I've been going through some of my favorite alts that still have development and active communities and charting them this way. DYOR and look for yourself. There are a lot of promising charts. If and when #AltSeason arrives, we're going to see face melting price action like we've never seen before.
Strategies
A BTC price correction could further pummel altcoin markets. Eventually BTC price has to correct. This rally is insane. I've been making lists of coins I like and I'm waiting for a nice correction to take place to see how it affects alt prices. My next dip buy will probably be VERY heavy in alts.
I've already started to DCA (dollar cost averaging) into several projects I've been watching and like. I almost always tend to DCA into trades.
In the meantime I'm researching newer coins and slowly have begun to fill my altcoin moon bags!
Caution:
A serious correction or black swan event could really put a monkey wrench in this plan. The upside potential for a lot of these charts is huge and IMHO worth the risk / reward. There are no sure things in investing. All any of us can do is look at the data, look for possible outcomes, and speculate on those outcomes.
Another question I have to ask myself is whether or not alts have finally decoupled from BTC movements. I honestly don't think so, but I guess we'll find out by the time this bitcoin rally is over. Historically alts tend to rally when KING BTC finally calms himself and stabilizes. Looking at historical data is generally a good indicator of potential price targets.
Disclaimer:
Again. DYOR. This is posted in a public forum as conversation and nothing more. Nothing here is meant as financial advice. The Dood is not a financial advisor and I do not pretend to be one on the internet. I'm just a Dood trading some shitcoins and having fun. Always look to a licensed financial professional for financial advice, not a cartoon character on the internet. The fact this needs to be a disclaimer is idiotic, but there it is! Live long and prosper!
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I hope to see $HIVE far exceed the 'other coin' and I think we are on our way there. Need to keep doing what we can to build community as that adds value. The whole crypto market has been crazy lately with remarks by certain people causing a frenzy. You would think actual utility would count for something, but you never know what will happen.
Stay well.
!BEER
I know. I've been saying the same thing. I think these BTC prices are outrageous for the current "product" we have. Still enjoying the gains though :(
I think HIVE will exceed the other coin. The community is here and we keep growing. It's going to take time, but I'm more than optimisitic.
!ENGAGE
ENGAGEtokens.$HIVE season haven’t started yet!
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Nope, I don't think so either. I have a feeling this will be a big one too. So looking forward to that!
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Thanks for your not-so-financial advice.
Like? Spill the beans. Yes, I know, not financial advice.
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BEER.Thanks for this discussion, I agree we are only in the beginning of it, although I have just recently watched BTC dominance fall from 69 to under 59 and now its rising back to 60% now...
we shall see where capital flows... If altcoin season has not yet begun, we should see that drop below 58% again, probably when Bitcoin corrects, if it does at all. I suspect we are only halfway up the mountain.
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This rally is showing no signs of slowing currently. It certainly feels like we're going to keep climbing. That BTC dominance indicator is a good tool as well for alts!
Great analysis! I'm a little more skeptical about whether we're in alt season or not. I feel like we are firmly in the middle of it. I'm not saying we're getting close to the end or anything, I just feel like there have been an awful lot of "shitcoins" that have already done 2,3,5,10x's. There's still room, no question. As long as bitcoin keeps fueling the market by creating more "wealth" and governments keep handing out fiat like candy, there's still plenty of gas to pump things a lot further. I like your strategy. It's always hard for me to "price" things in BTC, even though that's my ultimate goal: to get more BTC. I'd appreciate watching your analysis on this going forward if you keep posting on it. Nicely done! Followed
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I think this is a HUGE factor as well. This is fueling both the bitcoin and traditional stocks as well. I think another factor at play and why we're seeing folks like Michael Saylor and Elon Musk finally beating the BTC drum is people are worried about a devalued dollar. They can't just keep printing money and everyone that's paying attention understands this. Another reason, I feel this think might just be heating up! Thanks for the follow. Just followed back!
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I totally agree with you, we haven't yet seen a proper altcoin seasons. All we've had for now was warm ups. I bought some LTC for my father a few days ago and I said to him that I wouldn't advise him to sell under $1000. My take is that the real deal will occur somewhere between summer and fall.
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I was thinking the same thing time frame wise. I think 1K LTC is a pretty decent call too!
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What's your take on $GRT? I am super interested in the development of the project and am holding a very modest amount, but would definitely be interested to hear the perspective of a more seasoned trader than myself.
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Sorry, I haven't really been following that one at all. I don't know any of the fundamentals. Looks like it was trading around 12 cents back in December or around 2000 sat, doubled up and has been holding that 4000 sat range. Looks pretty stable. Those high supply coins scare me but there are only a little over a billion circulating. The chart looks fine to me. Nothing out of the ordinary.
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STOPCheck out the last post from @hivebuzz:
I haven't looked at other tokens in a while because I haven't had money to invest. I was wondering about Litecoin though becaus I have bought that in the past, usually to trade for steem back in the day. It looks like it shot way up now from it's long term lows. I should have bought Litecoin 6 months ago...
Anyone that started to DCA into these bottoms 6 months to a year earlier are really happy right now. I think there's still room for growth on a lot of these, but it's much easier to have strong hands when you bought in much, much lower!
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I like the analysis. I have coins of the alt projects I like on the dips, though they have been rare of late. The BTC dominance is the sole reason I don't think this bull rally is over.
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With the exception of this morning dip, this rally is looking really strong. I'm not seeing many signs of it letting up.
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For weeks (maybe for the last two months), I'm following some coins in BTC and in $ or USDT trading pairs. What I mostly see is the $ pair leading the BTC pair. I suppose the world of crypto coins is not so much about BTC as the base, but the $ as the base. This is supported by the many $ (or pegged $) crypto pairs at many of the exchanges. I suppose the new money from the small guy and girl that is entering the market will be traded with the $ as the base coin, unlike 4 years ago. I start to sonder more and more if the alt season will be about $ or about BTC valuation. I lean more and more to the $. When so, the previous ATH on BTC pair may not be relevant anymore. That said, back in 2017, BTC market share was around 30%? That's half of what we have today.
Interesting what happened today. Yesterday I thought: Shall I step out of some coins and re-buy after the dip. Somehow I was expecting this dip. Woke up this morning still most ok, and then dip dip dipperdeedip hahaha. I suppose most of the new money from the small guy and girl has changed hands. But I may be wrong. But we need all this money from the small wallets since they will create the ATH :) And those who know this can turn this knowledge into moving all that money into their pockets.
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I was wondering the same thing. At 50K BTC the smaller retail investor may begin to trade more in USD. We're also starting to see more USD trading pairs on exchanges. There are a lot of small changes over the last 4 years that could affect the way this rally plays out.
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