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My last post about Hive went into the analysis of its pattern which indicated a possible low of 10-12 cents. I think we are still on a course for that target as its price action has underperfromed in recent weeks, especially since there hasn't been a corresponding uptick with bitcoin.
This is the chart from several weeks back:
Notice the orange ovals: they indicate the current fractal of Hive. So far price action has been quite on par with the general outlook given back then. But this fractal also indicates another low which should be at around 11 cents. This is the updated chart:
I am as confident as I can be that this will be the "ultimate" low for Hive, meaning that price should recover similarly as seen in the second larger oval in the first chart. Strong upticks in price are currently established within the Hive fractal, so we could also see the price close to 20 cents rather sooner than later.
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Is there a particular technical reason you think 10 cents is the bottom?
The most obvious one is the fractal which would indicate one more big price decline of about 10-15%. Considering that btc is in a bull phase now, it would be extremely strange for it not to follow upwards with it.
We've seen many such legs to the downside. Do you think if BTC rockets before Christmas then HIVE is likely to follow suit?
I think alts will dump in btc pair because btc pumps, if you look at history very few alts will outperform BTC in the long run, most of them are in a downtrend in BTC pair. They will benefit a bit in usd value, but not alot before BTC breaks 20k if history will repeat alt will run after. And BTC dominance is on the rise wich meens alts will bleed until it reverses again..
I think the number of alts that outperform BTC is slowly growing. In 2015, many doubted if any alts would have a future in the first place. The top 10 seems to follow BTC quite closely. What you say is 100% correct when it comes to the very long tail of smaller cap alts. But the number of alts deemed legitimate in the eyes of large investors is increasing. Alt seasons are usually seen when BTC is consolidating. BTC volatility usually spells bleeding for alts.
Yea, alts will outperform again but not yet i think.. Thanks for great info :)
You're welcome.
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So if this fractal plays out, and we get a pump back to 20 cents, then if the fractal will continue we should have a pullback to new lower lows or do you think it is the ultimate low. Then we should see a higher low right? And I also think we have one more leg down, alts was fun in april/mai, now they are coming back to retest their beakouts and BTC dominance is on the rise and alts might bleed until BTC breaks ATH?
I don't think there will be a new lower low because I expect bitcoin to go to 20k rather sooner than later (within the next months). This should take Hive up to 20 cents range again. After that we could see higher lows in the teens before finally climbing to 30 cents+ again
My gut feeling tells me that Hive hasn't bottomed for now. I honestly wished for it to perform better, but the reality is contradicting my wishes. I think that quite many are selling HIVE for LEO lately and that's probably why this dump on HIVE.
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Now bitcoin is growing in price, and quickly, this lowers the price of other cryptocurrencies. Yes, I want to believe that the hive will grow in price, but there must be prerequisites. It seems I am pessimistic😃. I remember the changes in the price of the steem, then it fell sharply, and then again the price grew rapidly, and so from year to year (2016-2018). So who knows what awaits us, anything is possible.
Why does it lower the price of other cryptos when btc is growing? While alts have often not pulled up with bitcoin, I would be shocked if they wouldn't rise as well ultimately (maybe I am too optimistic ;) Of course a 40% increase of btc to 20k would only mean a similar price increase for Hive to not even 20 cents.