It's been a while since I last looked at the HIVE/KRW chart
It turns out the chart there doesn't look quite as bad as e.g. on Binance. For instance, the supporting trend line is still on an ascending inclination and we also don't have the ugly wick going down to "3 cents". We can also see that the current low on Upbit is relatively higher on the chart than on Binance. In fact, it is around 43% higher. This discrepancy could be due to a weaker dollar in recent times, but it does make for a much better chart. This could be insofar beneficial in that Upbit is a main driver for price and could perhaps positively influence price action on other exchanges.
Hive on Binance
Hive on Upbit
But there is an even greater revelation
When looking at the charts I just realized a big change when it comes to volume. Until recently, Upbit by far had the greatest volume for Hive. It wasn't even close - Binance the second biggest exchange for Hive had multiple times lower volume. But not quite so anymore it seems! Take a look at this chart which shows volume for summer throughout fall and see for yourself:
Volume on Binance
Volume on Upbit
Again, I have to highlight the importance of this. If you go back for the last 5 years, you won't find a similar discrepancy for volume. It's essentially the first time that Upbit has been this "weak". It is especially apparent for October where we have seen volume spikes to around 18M on Binance, but only 7M on Upbit. But even throughout August and September there was consistently higher volume on Binance. In other words, we can see two shifts recently: a higher peak volume as well as a higher "background" volume on Binance.
Conclusion
This change in volume trend is noteworthy, since it means that Upbit's grip on Hive has weakened. More Hive is going to Binance (I remember when Binance offered something like 40% APR for deposits earlier this year). This is a positive change since Hive won't be quite as exposed to whales on Upbit and is distributed more evenly. But I have also noticed that we haven't seen any "midnight pumps" as of late - could this be a direct consequence of an volume outflow from Upbit?
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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