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RE: Bear Market Ideas & The Inflation Debacle

in LeoFinance2 years ago

"Lowering inflation on a non debt-based system lowers demand, and will lower price as well."

In your explanation you point out that inflation is printing of more Hive. So inflation isn't a reduction in demand, it's an increase in supply. Increasing supply lowers price, and a bear market is the result of reduced demand, which also reduces price. This is why reducing inflation in a bear market for collateral based assets - not debts - opposes reducing prices, by reducing supply to meet the reduced demand.

It may not increase price, but increasing supply during reduced demand will further reduce price, by increasing supply beyond that already oversupplying the market during reduced demand, and reducing supply to match reduced demand should counter the tendency of price to go down.

I strongly disagree with your claim that reducing supply during a bear market will reduce price.

Thanks!

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I mean disagree all you want: you're wrong.

Everyone knows that injecting money into a struggling economy can help to dig it out of the hole.
It's basic economics. Uncontested. The only argument to be make is whether or not it is sustainable or more akin to giving a crack addict more crack so they can push off the pain to a later date. The legacy economy has a bad track record. Crypto can do better, as it is much more agile and precise.

You are under the impression that inflation gets printed all at once, it does not.
If today I have 30% yields, and I jack inflation up 100% and create 60% yields, guess what?
Those yields are measured year over year.
Speculation prices in the increase immediately.
They want the higher yields.
Demand increases, but supply is exactly the same on day one.
Did I really not explain this well enough the first time?
I guess it's a good thing that no one is attuned to these concepts.
Just need to get back to building my own token so I can prove it in the field.

In fiat, inflation is debt.
In crypto, inflation is an investment.

There is no argument.

If we get a positive return on the investment, we can continue printing money forever and never have our currency devalued. Why is this such a difficult concept to understand? It's a mathematical fact. The only argument to be made is if the investments we are making are worth it or not. Stick to the issues that actually need contribution. Stop arguing with facts. Facts are facts. If the network prints a million tokens, but generates twice as much value, we can print money forever. Seriously I don't get why this is such a hard concept to understand, but clearly you are not the only one to have a knee-jerk reaction to these claims. As stated in the original post, your aversion to inflation, like the rest of us, stems from centralized corrupt allocations that leech value away from the citizens. That's not what we are talking about here... at all.

increasing supply during reduced demand will further reduce price

And what did you get out of increasing supply?
You completely miss the point and assume you get nothing out of it.
AKA an investment that returns $0 in value.

Should we reduce inflation to zero on Hive?
Obviously not.
Think about why.
It's because the value of the inflation is higher than the dilution rate.
If we take away block rewards the value of Hive crashes to zero instantly.
If we take away the reward pool we lose our ability to decentralized efficiently.
Again, I'm floored that this is such a difficult concept to understand, seemingly across the board for the entire cryptosphere.

"And what did you get out of increasing supply?"

You specify nothing as the means or reason to gain from further pressuring price. What specific mechanism causes Hive to have a yield?

Hive isn't a bond and has no yield. Bonds have yields. When you buy a bond it has a face value that it's worth at maturity. The difference between the price you pay for the bond and what it's worth at maturity is the yield. That's why when the price of bonds goes down the yield of bonds goes up. Hive has no yield that goes up when price goes down, because you get the face value of the Hive when you buy it.

Marbles have no yield, but you can do something with marbles that creates a return on investment, like fling them at fleeing antelopes to gain meat, which you can trade for more marbles than you had to fling at antelopes to get the meat with. You can buy Splinterland cards with Hive and win games that payout more Hive than you had to pay for the cards. You can get a return on investment by using Hive, but Hive has no yield, because it's not a bond.

If the price of Hive is in a bear market, pumping out more Hive gains no one anything at all. It just makes the Hive that was already dropping in price worth even less because now there's even more of it people don't want enough to pay the old price for. If the price of bonds goes down the yield of bonds goes up, and if you pump out more bonds in a bear market the yield of those bonds will be increased because the price of the bonds will go down. That just means the bond issuer will be paid less for it's bonds when it sells them.

"Should we reduce inflation to zero on Hive?"

If you want to stabilize price in a bear market, then deflation could be one way to do it. If supply can be matched to demand, theoretically the price can be maintained by not offering any Hive for sale at lower prices. The only way to do that would be deflation during bear markets. If the price starts dropping, start pulling Hive off the market until the price offered for Hive goes back up to the desired price.

Just reducing inflation isn't enough. You'd have to be able to reduce the amount of Hive on the market, to suck it out of people's accounts in a reverse rewards pool, and ain't no one interested in that, for very good and real reasons. Or you could do what the UK just did.

The UK just bought a lot of it's bonds, deflating the bonds on the market and stabilizing the price, to prevent the price of their bonds from crashing to junk bond levels and increasing the yield of those bonds to the point that the market would buy them. They deflated their bonds, pulling them off the market by buying them.

Hive really has no mechanism to do that, since Hive isn't a bond. If you pump out a bunch of Hive you can't use it to buy the Hive on the market to stabilize the price of Hive.

Doing that doesn't make any sense for very real reasons. People have been doing these things for a long time, and they're done the way they are for those real reasons.