I’ve been diving into the world of cryptocurrencies since 2018. Back then, I started with a small investment in Ethereum during its big run up to $4,000. I’ve ridden through the crashes, the booms, and everything in between. I’ve lost money on bad trades and made some wins that kept me hooked.
Today, I’m sharing my thoughts on whether crypto will bounce back in 2025 and when we might see that exciting ALT SEASON everyone talks about.
This isn’t just theory for me; it’s based on what I’ve seen over the years, mixed with fresh insights from the market right now.
If you’re like me, you’ve probably felt the sting of recent dips and maybe got panicked. In this post, I will try to tell you everything in a very simple and easy format and avoid confusing you
Will Bitcoin HOLD 100k Support ?
To answer that, we have to first look at some charts. In the chart below, you can clearly see that Bitcoin, from its run-up and start of the bull market, always respected the 50-week moving average, and even in the beginning of Trump tariffs, it got a little bit lower than the 50-week moving average but did not break it.
On the other hand, 100k is a very important psychological support, and you can also clearly see that there are some other support levels around 100k, so the 100k psychological level and previous support levels are intertwining with each other.
The thing that no one talks about these days is that in previous bull markets, we always had an alt season and I don’t know why no one talks about this. But why do people think that the thing which always happens won’t happen this time?
The next chart that I want to show you is the $DXY chart. Simply, it’s the strength of the dollar and has a negative correlation with Bitcoin and other assets that are valued in dollars.
We can clearly see that the $DXY is in a rising channel, and recently it got rejected from the upper side of the channel. After moving down, it’s now rising up to reach another important monthly resistance at the top.
Long story short ; the $DXY is in a downtrend, and it has a very, very huge and strong monthly resistance area above it.
The Bitcoin dominance, on the other hand, has started to fall in the last few months. I always get upset when people only see the 5-minute timeframe and say it’s rising. There’s a good saying: “When you doubt, zoom out.” It’s easy to get obsessed and brainwashed by the media and crypto Twitter, thinking it’s the end of the world and crypto will crash but you always have to look at the charts, not the media.
What Will Happen ? ( My own Thoughts ) :
I personally think and I’m heavily betting on the fact that $DXY will fall, because the Federal Reserve is printing again, and inflation will come, and all stocks and crypto will pump.
Then there will be a mania phase where all retail investors will want to buy crypto that phase when “your cousin sells the house and buys Shiba and thinks he’ll 100x his money,” or “your grandma calls you to ask how to buy this Bitcoin thing.”
I’m personally betting all my money on this phase coming, and after that, we’ll have a bubble an AI bubble and a crypto bubble and then it will burst. "THERE WILL BE BLOOD ON THE STREETS" , and history will repeat itself with another 2-year bear market