Two points regarding this hardfork:
- source code is not yet public, it's in a private repo
- power down period could be lowered to 4 weeks from 13 weeks
Let's take them one at a time.
Semi-Private Source Code
I think the source code, which is now in a private repo, would be made available for review with very little time ahead of the actual hardfork implementation. In a normal, decentralized blockchain, these changes have to be made public weeks ahead of the actual change, so users can make an informed decision. Given the history of the STEEM takeover, I doubt they will be really transparent and they will just mimic something like this. "Look, we made it available for review, it's here, and in 2 hours we're going live".
Anyway, that's just to make another point about the more and more closed and centralized nature of Steem, as a blockchain.
4 Weeks Power Down Period
Technically, this would mean that if you start a power down now, you will get your stake every 2.15 days, in 13 equal installments (if the 13 installments split it will be kept, there's nothing clear yet about this).
Also, that may mean that if you already have a power down in progress, you may have to stop that and restart it under the new algorithm, otherwise it will keep going on with the previous algorithm. Without access to source code is hard to be certain, though.
From a financial point of view, that may also mean the STEEM token will see a rapid increase in supply, because there will be more liquid STEEM available, faster. Of course, many users may choose not to power down, but a big part of the stake is still controlled by a single entity, the former @steemit account, which was bought by Justin Sun a couple of months ago. There is also some serious stake distributed among the so called "witnesses", which are also controlled by a single entity. Justin Tron vision about a shorter power down period was clear from the beginning and that may mean he (and his "witnesses") will be some of the biggest liquid STEEM owners.
From this point on, is purely speculation. Logically, the value of the STEEM token should go down (bigger supply), but if, at the same time, there will be some sort of an airdrop announced, like a STEEM-TRON token, on the TRON blockchain, it could drive quite a bit of demand for STEEM (everybody loves helicopter money), thus increasing the price. It's a delicate movement and the only thing that's is clear for me is that the cards will be played in such a way that the biggest stakeholders will profit more.
If I would still have some STEEM stake, I will tread carefully. There is certainly a possibility that this speculation could generate some spike in the price, but the generated value may slip very fast from one token (the "original" STEEM) to another (the "STEEM-TRON" token on the TRON blockchain).
As always with crypto, a lot of caution is advised.
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