Hi Hiveans (or are we now called bees? ;-) ),
Hive has IMHO been up for a fantastic start. The basic dapps are working already, many more are planed to be released soon. At the same time both hive price but also steem price are (at least atm) pretty stable on a high level. So atm I looks like 1+1 equals 3 ;-)
But what to expect from here?
Why did all major cryptos collapse in the wake of the corona virus epidemic? - I mean wasn't bitcoin exactly set up for such a environment?
Actually the best hint of whats going on is to look at the gold price.
The gold price also went down more than 10% form its peak from early March.
So why is this? Isn't gold a save heaven asset?
Yes it is, but you could see a similar development in 2008/2009.
Most investors are diversified over many different asset classes and gold or crypto are only a smaller part of the overall holdings. So if equity, corporate bond markets and commodities crash like they did during the last 30 days there is a big demand for fresh cash - either to invest in the heavily crashed assets or to adhere to margin calls or to pay back outside investors that want their money back.
Where could you raise cash in such markets? This is only possible in such assets that are still highly liquid and where you are not heavily in the losses.
I believe this is exactly what has happend at the gold market.
But why did bitcoin and all the other alt coins also crash by 50% like the stock market did?
Isn't bitcoin the new gold?
Yes and no... it seems that some of the above described liquidation price action also happened to the crypto space but the most impact is probably due to a higher percentage of speculative investors and traders in the crypto markets as well as the fact that this is still a very very young investment space that has to proof itself in times of economic crisis.
So I would not be too concerned to hold crypto atm, even if price actions could be very volatile in the next weeks and months. At the end I am convinced that major cryptos will be substantially higher at the end of this year because this events are exactly for what they were designed first hand.
Economic disruptions and problems in the banking system will show the advantage of cryptos over fiat money.
As both gold mining but also bitcoin and ethereum mining are very very power intensive and hence have a very high carbon footprint I much rather prefer POS cryptos as the likes of hive, eos (and in the past steem).
Interestingly after Justin's "Wolf of steem-street" raid and the subsequent hardfork the steem price went booming.. To be honest as I just shortly before Justin's announcement consolidated all my crypto holdings into steem I was at first pretty concerned and after this whole conflict I already feared to have lost it all.. so last weeks price action was a very pleasant surprise.
If you sum up both hive and steem price we are YTD in BTC terms more than 3 times up compared to the start of the year.
So where do we go from here?
If hive keeps on growing and attracting both all the old steem content contributors and crowd as well as new folks (thanks to this amazing PR coup ;-) ) I believe not only the community but also the price could thrive on a mid and long term basis. Not sure what will happen over the next weeks so, but long term I am betting on higher price.
What about steem?
Let me say it like this: I hope Justin takes this personally and will have a "Ego-connection" to the price of steem (especially compared to hive) and thinks twice before killing steem hence giving hiveans decent time, volume and a good price to cash out and reinvest in hive.
I mean if steem price would crash now wouldn't he loose his face?
So I might even keep a little speculative position in steem just to see if he now puts his resources into steem as it is now completely his baby!
Thanks again to those 20 "balls of steel" witnesses who not only saved our blockchain and our community but apparently also our money!