Summer drawing to a close...
Getting a little worried as I still have a MakerDAO position open and Ethereum may be getting ready to complete a head-and-shoulders pattern, pushing the price down to the $320 region (or even worse $230, nullifying all recent gains). Not really sure what to do on that front, as common history would point to a dip after summer is over, but we are far from common territory at the moment.
More and more corporations are publicly moving reserves out of fiat and into Bitcoin. For me, this is a huge sign that something big is coming. Add to that the halving back in May, and the entire script could get flipped at any moment. History will not help us, we are in unexplored territory.
2020 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
It appears as though the market wants confirmation of support. This would push us down exactly to the doubling curve at $10600 for the triple-bottom. A lot of TAs are talking about this exact level, and no one uses the doubling curve metric but me (I invented it).
The concept is simple: Bitcoin was worth $100 at the end of 2013 and it doubles in value every year. This metric is unbelievably accurate, with the price of Bitcoin hitting the curve at least once a year, and 2020 hitting that target every quarter (often multiple times).
Normally when I hear multiple sources giving the same conclusion using various methods, that outcome understandably has a much greater chance of coming to fruition.
This would push Hive to the 20 cent support line and Ethereum down to the $330 head-and-shoulders line. Sounds about right. Unfortunately, I probably won't be making any bets to that affect, as I'd be kicking myself much harder if I miss an unexpected pump than I would going bearish on the market during a time of such massive fundamental development. There's too much chaos happening in the world right now to worry about taking a possible 10% gain when their might be completely unpredictable 1000% gains thrown on the table at any time.
wHIVE
I was going to play around with this a bit but I messed up and now I'm over it because ETH fees are too high. I sent Hive to @wrapped-hive and got wHive sent to my Ethereum wallet. This cost $1.50 in fees. Then I realized I sent it to the wrong wallet, because Uniswap is most easily connected to MetaMask. Now, transferring the wHive to another wallet would cost me $3, so I'm over it. I'm not about to spend $20+ to provide a tiny bit of liquidity to the Uniswap pool as a test. Pass.
It's important to note that @wrapped-hive is a fully centralized account, so worst-case-scenario is that all the money in that account gets hacked or exit-scammed, making the underlying value of wHive tokens on Ethereum worthless. I don't think that will happen, but everyone should be aware that it could.
That being said if you want wHive you can visit https://www.whive.network/ to set up the transaction. I also imagine you could make it work simply by sending Hive to @wrapped-hive with your Ethereum wallet in the memo. That seems to be how it's done on chain.
From there you can go to:
https://uniswap.info/pair/0x50702c216ca6906a18ff105d5dfb1602e8bf0d03
to check out the liquidity pool.
Clicking "Trade" opens up https://app.uniswap.org/#/swap where you can place a taker order and force the trade instantly.
Clicking "Add Liquidity" opens https://app.uniswap.org/#/pool where you can open a maker order to add liquidity to the market. Apparently you can get paid fees for adding liquidity... I don't know how that works exactly, but it must be one of the reasons why Uniswap is so popular.
Unfortunately, as I've already stated, I'm already kinda over it because of the whole fee situation. Ethereum needs to hurry the fuck up and switch to proof-of-stake, i-tell-ya.
Conclusion
I hope that Bitcoin dips to $10600 soon. Would be nice to get there quickly so that the market knows for sure how big of a support line there is at that level. The ricochet from there could be pretty violent. Volatility breeds volatility.
Lots of TAs are waiting around for Labor Day Sept 7. Apparently this is historically a good time for Bitcoin. I hope I wasn't a month off with my bet against @yabapmatt. It would be pretty lame for BTC to hit ATH in October instead of September. Ah who am I kidding everyone wins in that scenario. No competition to see here, folks!
That being said, if we look at the Bakkt pump/dump it took around 3 months for the market to spike after the bull run signaled it was taking off. If July 26 was the signal this bull run started then we might have to wait it out a bit longer.
I'm ok pushing the timing of our bet to the end of the year. I think you're more like a year too soon rather than a month too soon for another ATH. I also really hope I lose this bet!
Ha, sucker! You lose! :D
If we are going to change the bet that drastically I'll give you better odds.
You lose, you owe 100 Hive.
I lose, I'll pay 200 Hive.
Sorted.
Alrighty then! I might go buy some more BTC now on this dip since you're so confident we'll hit a new ATH soon :-P
If a year ago corporations started announcing the swap from fiat reserves to Bitcoin people would have been losing their damn minds. I think the COVID crash is still fresh in people's minds... Of course it is because the entire F-ing economy is still on lockdown. Billions of Tether and fiat are just sitting on the sidelines right now waiting for the "all-clear" and for commerce to resume. The FED has officially announced a > 2% target inflation on top of unprecedented QE.
Even under normal circumstances Bitcoin would hit ATH at the end of the third year in the cycle. Fundamentals have never been higher, but as we all know speculation is the god of short-term price action.
I can't argue with all that except to say that I'm just not that lucky, lol. In any case, I just picked up 1 BTC to add to my stack in case you're right.
Ug, I'm suddenly reminded when I heard about Bitcoin hitting $1 parity and thinking "That sounds like something I'd be REALLY interested in... although it probably won't get much higher than that!" kek
Haha, I wasn't that early at all... but I had heard about it years before I REALLY looked into it. Regrets.
correction is definitely looming
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-bitcoin-correction-possible
Bitcoin all time high in Sept/Oct? Like over $20k?
yep. That's my bet with @yabapmatt. $20k by the end of sept. gonna lose :D
maybe
honestly if it happens in oct or nov... it will probably just keep running up into december. shit could get crazy.
Well, good luck! Like you said, we all win regardless.
I've obviously been following you for a while... and I've also doubted your Bitcoin doubling schedule... but you've been surprisingly right so far. It's so weird.
The true test will be when Bitcoin spikes x10+ above the doubling curve.
I'll make the prediction that we return to the curve within 13 months,
which would imply at least an 80% loss (which is obviously a gain if you sell at peak).
Very nice painting!
Hi @edicted
You have packed so much information in this post. It is super loaded :)
Looking at the head and shoulder formation on ETH and possible $320 or even the $230 levels being pushed do you think it would be worth getting into ETH
playing for the eth moving to POS from POW or is it too early to play.
32 ETH is quite some money to lock away and see a lot of parabolic activity in BTC or altcoin space.
Well reading your "doubling curve metric" I am tempted for a triple bottom confirmation of btc at around 10600 and playing for the rise and sell before that 80% correction that you mention
So I am tempted to ask you how should one divide $100(for sake of understanding) amongst the two or some alt
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