mess-making, January 25th

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Stories everywhere, just waiting to be told. But who's there to see them?

Word on the street

The second day of following the habit contract went smoothly, save for the fact I conveniently forgot I had a shift at work. I dealt with the unexpected as much as anyone else does. Imagine officers raid an apartment next door, down the hall.

“Are they making margaritas?”

“I think they’re baking a cake.”

While the illegal production of methamphetamines remains a grave matter, I cannot help my amusement with the power of cues and context- frames of mind. Within #paradoxofchoice, Barry Schwartz highlights the significance of anchoring bias.

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Beating biases

Anchoring bias is a cognitive bias that causes us to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we are given about a topic.

I listen to contemporaries and peers remark at the instability, volatility, and whole bunch of other ‘-ilities’- the general distrust blockchain and digital assets create. Then I balk at their stories and wry smiles as they admit they heavily invest in Dogecoin. The same critics of a “lawless” realm of instruments, who complain about a ‘lack of regulation’ are the very people who jump into questionable options in the first place! Their leading examples are those that profited in the public reversal on Gamestop in 2020.

Who regulates conformity?

Their inspiration from the ‘survivors’ of that financial fiasco overlooks the staggering number of individuals who were not so fortunate. This phenomenon is referred to commonly as survivorship bias.

As investments are individual, it’s the individual’s responsibility what happens. As Larry Livingston put it, ‘the hardest thing to do is sit tight and be right.’1 We all enjoy tips, as we dislike deciding things on our own or facing the consequences. Yet, the stories of the successful entice us to toss in our lots. What if… sitting tight and being right could be made a habit?

In April, I hope to demonstrate to myself and a large audience how exactly this might be possible. With the help of Clear, Schwartz and several other authors, I might create a frame of mind that feels secure in the lawful production of stories, photography, work and ultimately a sustainable livelihood. Hope you like what the kids cookin’. No, not meth, don’t worry.


1Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Edwin Lefèvre


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Maybe one day, maybe one day cats will abjure following the crowd for finance ideas.

Post Summary

  • The framing effect is the cognitive bias wherein an individual’s choice from a set of options is influenced more by how the information is worded than by the information itself.

  • Anchoring bias is another cognitive bias that causes us to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we are given about a topic. We all heard the ‘Gamestop guys’ made a lot of money, so why not try it? Same issue with Bitcoin and blockchain.

  • Survivorship bias or survival bias, yet another cognitive fallacy focuses our lenses on the successful individuals of a given group. We fail to realize many have entered. We only see the few who won.

  • I continue to save fourteen dollars a day in order to see a friend speak at conference in New York. Also, I’ve submitted a proposal to speak myself at a conference in Boston.

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Sitting tight because you're right and I'm right about your content. 👍👏

@enginewitty

another well read free thinker. I think you two will get along great!

Appreciate it, Nicky.

Your kind words fuel the fire in my heart. It burns for sharing my story the way I know best.

You have a brilliant mind, my friend. Please keep on sharing that with us!

It's when you read stuff and it sits with you for a while afterwards. Or you find yourself nodding your head while you read it... that's the stuff.

!LUV


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