Donald Trump's path to victory in November is extremely precarious. It's not that it's impossible; polls are generally giving him around a one-in-three chance of beating Biden. But it wouldn't take much to swing the election to a Biden landslide, whereas it seems very unlikely at this point that Trump can win by much more than he did in 2016. The reason for this goes well beyond any current issue, even the coronavirus. The shakiness of Trump's electoral base stems from the long term demographic and economic shifts in two well populated regions of the country: the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt.
To understand what I'm talking about, we have to go back to the 2016 election results. At the time, many people were surprised that Trump managed to carry the electoral college by a fairly wide margin while losing the popular vote by nearly three million votes. We can understand how this happened if we look at the top 10 populated states, where the majority of Americans live and where elections are eally won or lost. Of these 10 pivotal states, 7 were close races in 2016, decided by less than 10%: Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan. All seven voted for Trump. Trump was able to win the electoral college while losing the popular vote because he had a staggeringly efficient vote, winning every single significant battleground in the nation. The flip side of this is that now the eight largest Trump-voting states (the previously listed seven plus Arizona), which supplied most of Trump's electoral college support in 2016, are now all considered toss-ups by polls. Whereas Biden has six solid states in the top 15 largest, Trump has zero. If Trump's Big Eight States flip blue, which could easily happen, the bottom would completely fall out on his electoral college votes, and we'll have a massive Biden landslide on November 4th. These Big Eight States are all in either the "Sun Belt" or the "Rust Belt".
Both of these regions are pretty loosely defined, but, for the purposes of this discussion, we can think of the Sun Belt as the ethnically diverse, quickly growing states both along the Southern Atlantic coast, and in the Southwest. California, however, isn't really relevant to this discussion because it is so staunchly Democrat. So we have Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the southwestern corner, and Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida in the southeastern corner. In addition to their warm weather, these 10 states have two relevant factors in common: except for New Mexico and Virginia, they have all grown in population by double digits over the past decade, and they are all less white than the US average. Together, these states fit a similar demographic profile.
The Rust Belt, on the other hand, is the region around the Great Lakes which has experienced widespread deindustrialization and economic stagnation in recent years. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa are all Rust Belt states. Because Chicago dominates Illinois so heavily and shapes the state's political culture, it is in a bit of a different category. Unlike the Sun Belt, these states are all whiter than the US average and have all grown by less than 4% in the past decade.
These two belts are demographic opposites in many ways, and so it's not very surprising that they are trending in opposite political directions. The best way to see this is to look at the last time before Trump that a Republican won the presidency: George Bush in 2004. His path to victory involved noticeably more sun and less rust than Trump's 2016 victory. Bush won four Sun Belt states that Trump lost in 2016: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. But he also lost in three Rust Belt states that Trump won: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Sun Belt has, for the most part, reliably voted Republican, while most of the Rust Belt traditionally votes Democrat. Trump won in 2016 because he was able to narrowly hold on to enough of the large Sun Belt states, while winning over solidly Democratic Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, which had voted Democrat in every election since Reagan. Trump's transformation of the Rust Belt was dramatic: all six Rust Belt states voted for Obama in 2008, and all six voted for Trump in 2016. The result is that all of the large Republican states are either in the Sun Belt and shifting towards the Democrats, or else in the Rust Belt and traditionally Democrat. There are plenty of solid Republican states outside of these belts, in the Mountain states, the Prairies, and the interior of the South, but they're all quite small, and thus less weighty in the electoral college. Democrats, by contrast, have several solid states that are very populated, like California, New York, and Illinois. However, this base is not enough to give Biden the election.
This regional situation gives Biden two distinct alternatives. He can either focus his message on winning back historically Democratic states in the Rust Belt which broke for Trump in the last election, or he can attempt to establish a completely new Democratic coalition of traditionally Republican Sun Belt states which have gradually become more competitive in the past few decades. Either way, this election will be fought in two Americas. Hot, diverse, fast-growing states in the southern parts of the country will be crucial, as will the cold, mostly white, stagnant states in the north of the country around the Great Lakes. The only way Trump can get four more years in the White House is by positioning himself at the intersection of these two American roads, one leading away from the Republican Party towards the Democrats, and the other moving away from the Democrats towards Trump's Republican Party. If he is not able to win both, he will certainly lose the presidency.
I can only speak to Arizona. That's where I live.
Almost certainly Arizona is going to elect their 2nd Democrat Senator in November. How that relates to Trump/Biden I do not know. I honestly don't think the two are related except for the fact that they are voted on the same day.
The hispanic community generally doesn't care much for Trump-his immigration and border policies are not horribly popular here. But I don't see the latinos exactly embracing Creepy Joe, either. I really don't have a read or a feel for that election yet.
Just for the disclosure record. I am a registered Democrat (I changed 5 years ago) and a registered activist. Honestly, I'm your basic independent.
Congratulations @viewsonthenews! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :
You can view your badges on your board and compare to others on the Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPDo not miss the last post from @hivebuzz:
Vote for us as a witness to get one more badge and upvotes from us with more power!
Welcome to Hive!
Here are a few resources you might want to check out:
Some posts, like news, will get more engagement when posted in communities.
Since I try to avoid polotices, I'll say is this should be an interesting election year. :)