Tomorrow the US presidential election will take place. Below some thoughts on that:
Within the last 20 years politics (not only in the US) have changed a lot, mainly driven by the emergence of social media.
More generally speaking, technology drives politics and society.
A historical analogy (historical analogies are always wrong/vague, but may be useful):
Around 100 BC the Roman Republic was under pressure by the invading Cimbri and Teutones. To fight them, the statesman Gaius Marius reformed the military (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marian_reforms) by
- allowing the capite censi (the landless masses) to join the military. Before, the poor citizens couldn't afford their own weapons. Marius supplied them with arms and offered the disenfranchised masses permanent employment (paid as professional soldiers) and the opportunity to gain spoils on campaign. Having little hope of gaining status by other means, the masses joined Marius' army.
- creating a standing army with an enlistment term of 16 years (before, after a war combatants continued with their ordinary profession, mostly farming)
- offering retirement benefits in the form of land grants. Members of the landless poor (after having completed their term of service) were given a pension by their General and a plot of land in the conquered region on which to retire.
--> These measures professionalized the Roman army and made the Legion the most-efficient and deadly army of their time. The Germanic invaders were destroyed in 101 BC and Rome would conquer large regions (Asia Minor, Syria, Egypt, Gaul) in the decades to come.
The unintended consequences of the new technology ("invented" by Marius):
- While combatants before these reforms were united in their allegiance to the Roman Republic, the new legionaries (mostly landless masses) felt allegiance to their General who paid them (with land and coin). Thus, power shifted from the senatorial class (politicians) to the commanders in the field (military). This facilitated the later civil wars between Marius and Sulla as well as between Julius Caesar and Gnaeus Pompey. The latter resulted in the end of the Roman Republic and the rise of the Imperium Romanum.
So, where is the analogy?
Both the Marian reforms and social media are technologies with huge implications for society.
In 2016 Donald Trump was able to bypass mass media and use social media (Twitter, Facebook) to connect with his potential electorate. His anti-establishment rhetoric ("lock her up", "drain the swamp") resonated well with many disadvantaged people ("deplorables").
In the last weeks I heard rumors about an imminent civil war in the US and read headlines like "What happens if President Trump doesn't accept the election results?".
So, could Trump gather his legions (and/or followers), march (figuratively) onto Washington D.C. and stay in power, even if he loses the election? I think this scenario is very, very unlikely because
- he probably would not dare to try that
- the Supreme Court, the House of Representatives, the Military, the Police, the States, and probably even the Republicans would not accept such a coup détat.
I think the USA has a very resilient political system currently not in danger of a coup, but probably, citizens of the Roman Republic in 49 (after hundreds of years as a Republic) thought that, too.
Social media is leveling the playing field, eroding the monopoly of political parties for political messaging. This empowers already famous/charismatic people who can reach 150 million US voters via social media and participate in the presidential race. On the one hand that can be frightening because of the loss of the political structure many people took for granted. On the other hand this democratization of media gives everybody the possibility to express their opinion, to communicate directly with decision-makers and to take part more actively in the political process. I expect this technological paradigm shift to have huge consequences in the years to come.
I think the US is heading towards big economic, social and political problems, but in the long term (especially compared to the rest of the world) I expect the US to come out of these turbulences stronger than before. I hope it won't be as an Empire, though.
Further highly recommended reading/watching:
https://www.perell.com/blog/what-the-hell-is-going-on
https://nav.al/american-spring
Social networks are a kind of weapon, it's a pity that, like conventional weapons, they fall into not very good hands. It is a pity that humanity has ceased to value peace and stability. Everywhere I hear only about revolutions, etc. I like your post, it gives an opportunity and a reason for a good analysis of these events. Thank you so much and good mood. Thank you for your support.
Thanks for your comment! 👍
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Not if 90% of those media are in the hands of very few "Zuckerbergs".
We see already massive erosion in the free speech. They even admit, that they e.g. censor if someone speaks against mass vaccination.
Other than that, great analysis.
Thanks for your comment.
I partially agree. But one could argue that nonetheless media is democratized. That Zuck, Jack & Co. have such power is a consequence of the network effect. So, it's not a lack of democracy, but just the result of the preferences of users to join social media in huge numbers, and then they accept censorship as long as they perceive the medium as useful and as long as they are not censored themselves. But I think there'll come a watershed moment (e.g. the censoring of a widely famous person or a big personal data leak), and then "users" will leave these centralized media in huge numbers.
The people of the world are definitely able to express there political opinions and engage with their politicians more than they were during the year 2000, and certainly more than the OP's comparison of the Roman Republic.
That being said, I also agree with your point. Censorship is a huge problem. In my (recent) studies of authoritarian states, I've found that governments do not typically implement censorship before the people. An authoritarian government will encourage/fund/organize groups of civilians to promote & demand censorship before they come forward with legislation.
While I'm sympathetic to the free-market idea and believe a company like Facebook can operate however they want (within the law,) I do see their actions as problematic.
Corporatism plays a role here too however. All big tech companies are embedded with government in some way. For example, the Snowden NSA revelations.
This was a fun read.
This is a really important point. I'm not aware of another President who has both attacked and bypassed the mainstream media in such an effective way. And Twitter has definitely helped facilitate that.
Historically, all constitutional Republics fail and the U.S. is not immune, but I agree with your statement. I do not think the military would allow for such an overt coup by either Presidential candidate and/or their supporters. Now, a long-term covert coup is a different conversation, lol.
I agree. Even with the blatant censorship from tech companies, two-way political messaging (people/news & politicians) is a lot more open than it was in the year 2000 when you might catch a Bush or Gore ad on television, watch a debate, and talk with your family/community.
Regarding your prediction for economic problems, I don't think there's anything avoiding that. Maybe it's the Austrian theorist within me, but I don't see a path forward without a huge bust cycle. In the mean time, Stimulus Infinity holds us together.
Great post!
Thanks for your comment!
Yes, there are some "entertaining" years ahead 🤠
My gut feeling tells me Trump will win, but if he won't he will definitely not accept the outcome easily.
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The last four years have taught us (in the U. S.) that institutions are fragile. We wouldn't be the first nation to see our 'secure' government give way to the cult of personality.
Votes are being counted now, as I write. If Trump loses there will be a lame-duck period (until January 23) in which he can work mischief. He has stacked the Court. The Senate is gutless. Even if the Senate majority turns Democratic, there is still the lame-duck session in the Senate, during which that body can endorse Trump's mischief. No blood will be shed. The military will support civilian rule, as it always has.
The House of Representatives will try to put up road blocks. But remember, Trump has been stacking courts throughout the country with judges. As rulings come in to support 'Executive actions', the House will be able to do nothing.
Ok, so this is a nightmare scenario. But it wouldn't be the first time in history that such a thing happened.
5 days later, and the situation does not look much better. Uncertain times ahead, I think.
This answer may be inappropriately sincere, but here goes:
It breaks my heart to see a democracy I believed in as a child being eviscerated. I studied history...wasn't a great student, but learned a lot about how governments change when people think change is not possible. Governments collapse when people feel secure. This is such an old story. All the checks and balances we were taught existed to prevent authoritarian rule...what good are they if people don't understand them? If people don't care about them? In the end, no matter how a government is designed, it is only as good, as secure as the people we entrust it to.
In this case, it is not just legislators and leaders who are letting us down. It is the public, a people ready to believe false promises, false rumors. People who don't realize what they may be giving up.
It's not too late. The courts may save the process. Leaders may step forward yet and correct the course. But, as you say, uncertain times ahead.
As I am also very interested in history, I can fully understand you.
Let's hope the mistakes of the 1920s and 30s won't be repeated.
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