The Psychology Behind the Crypto Market
When the market drops, we need to examine the FACTS of the situation to ascertain the logical explanations for the fall. I'm going to assume you've kept up with current affairs and politics, and I'm not going to discuss what you already know in this regard specifically, only to state the obvious: current events definitely affect the market.
What I AM going to discuss is what you might not have seen or thought about, or perhaps more likely, you've just forgotten to keep it in mind during these times. I'm also writing this post to my past self, from my present self so that my future self won't forget. If it helps someone else, even just one person today, then I will consider this post quite successful.
Psychology Affects the Market
Some personalities, more than others, are deeply affected by those they are around daily. They allow themselves to be persuaded by others, which by the way, can be a WONDERFUL thing; there's no criticism here. I really can't criticize, because this is me. My joy in life is to make others happy. It's literally in my very "DNA" as they say. I'm an ENFP, which is nothing more than a fancy way of grouping people into categories, known as the Myers-Briggs test or often abbreviated as MBTI. I'm quite the believer in free will, mind you, but since people fascinate me and I'm motivated to understand them to their very core, I have studied Myers-Briggs and other personality philosophies for many years. If you'd like to know what your MBTI is, head to this link here from Cloverleaf. Others use 16personalities.com, although it's received mixed reviews for its assessment accuracy.
Let's get back to how psychology is affecting the market. You see, we tend to believe what people tell us. And what people "tell" us is not always with their words. In fact, their actions 'speak louder' than their words as they say. We also have peer influence, and when we feel that pressure from our peers, we tend to act on it to avoid conflict, especially if we have no moral opposition to the action. Therefore, let's examine what's happening to the market right now by breaking down important areas we should be studying to understand it a bit better.
Breaking Down the Psychology: Is it Moral Opposition?
In breaking down these areas that motivate people to act (or not act), let's start with the moral opposition issue. Some people may have a moral reason why they don't want to invest in crypto. For example, when I told my family I was investing in crypto, they were quick to tell me crypto is a black market scheme that often supports very dark, bad behaviors (I won't even mention here because I'm a lady), and they wanted me to be informed and told me they wouldn't be investing themselves. I get it. And on a side note, now that I've been involved with crypto for several months, they've come around as well (ah HA! Proving my point that PSYCHOLOGY does play a MAJOR part in the crypto markets!)
Now, those people who have invested in crypto already did not have a moral opposition to it, or they never would have invested. And since we're talking about why the market has FALLEN, we aren't interested in those people who haven't entered crypto yet; we're focused on those that HAVE and why they have pulled out and the market is falling. Therefore, we can cross out "moral issues" as to why the market is on a downward path.
Is the Market Falling Because the Mechanics Are Bad?
If we narrow ourselves to specifics, we might see that this or that crypto is falling because its mechanics no longer work, or because it's overvalued and the market is adjusting or the crypto game or coin is just plain not working. For example, NFTs have been trending; however, NFTs with utility have a more long-lasting potentiality than an NFT which perhaps has no use other than to "exist". Is there still a REASON for crypto to exist in this world? I would say most certainly. In an age where politics is increasingly MORE disturbing regardless of your position, crypto seems to actually ANSWER a problem; therefore, in GENERAL, crypto mechanics seem reasonable. Now, in specifics, a particular GAME may no longer have good mechanics or utility so you need to examine that which leads to my MAIN focus which is Splinterlands.
Splinterlands and the Psychological Wave
Let's get to the meat and potatoes guys: we Splinterlands' supporters want to talk about why Splinterlands is falling. Well, let's go through my above "check-list of sorts".
- Moral Opposition
- Nope. We've established if you had moral issues with it, you wouldn't have joined to begin with. We aren't talking about growth in the game, we're talking about the market value decreasing in the game. When we get to a point where we're stable but not growing THEN we can discuss the possibility that people don't understand crypto is actually more morally sound that probably their local bank! HA!
- Some Negative News/Politics
- Nope. We have no negative news from Splinterlands. What we mean here is, we didn't hear that Dr. Blight ran off with millions of dollars and is hiding on some deserted island somewhere. Nope. Everything in Splinterlands actually indicates the OPPOSITE of this point. We have POSITIVE news coming from the team, from the game and from the players themselves. Therefore, we can rule out negative news as a reason for the decline in the market.
- Peer Pressure/Psychology
- Bingo. If you're second-guessing yourself, you've got the "Peer Pressure Bug," and I don't wish it on anyone. It's a difficult place to be when on the one hand you know the game is solid and is going to take off, but on the other hand you see crypto markets are decreasing and you hear other people who aren't even in the game being negative (ahhhh there's a WHOLE OTHER post just about this kind of person that is miserable so they want the rest to be miserable too). You're bound to feel the pressure that what you PREDICT will happen in Splinterlands is just a wish and a prayer, and isn't really true. You want to fight this peer pressure, but sometimes it's just too big a risk, particularly when you're talking about investments. And have you been here before? Have you been in a moment you were just SURE of the outcome, only to realize it was a failure? Well, if you answer is yes, then congrats! You're a human! We've all had those moments, which is why peer pressure is a REAL factor to the psychology of the markets right now. You can laugh at me all you wish, but I bet you've changed your mind on something because a friend talked you out of it, and then you wish you'd followed your gut.
Trust me. I know this. If you've read this far, you get the moment to know something personal about me (forgive me if you'd rather not! HA). I have been here several times in my life. My desire to see the good in everyone means I do find quite a few folks that really I should avoid, but they are family, or childhood friends... or there is this thing where I want to love everyone... so yes... that makes it difficult to walk away from them.
These people in my life, and perhaps it's happened to you too, have negatively impacted me over the years. They told me there's no way I can be successful. They told me I can't do this or that. Or the saddest moment of all "who would want you for a job when they could have me and I make so much more and could do so much more?" Might as well just not try. Yeah. Sure.
And so begins the web of lies spinning in your mind. For me personally, I have always believed I was strong enough to handle those people, and I persevered loving them anyways, until one day, they broke me. Never thought it could happen, but it did. The good news was I am a smart woman, and I could recognize their lies even if I spend a lot of time fighting my mind to push away those lies.
I share this personal point, so that you can hopefully relate it to something personal in your own life, and then apply this to the current market situation.
What Has Really Changed is the Psychology of the Market
Maybe some people are pulling out of crypto because money is tight and they have to, but they also are pulling out of crypto because the mass exodus influences their psychology and they think "OH! There's something I don't know about! I better get out of here FAST! Maybe my gut instincts were wrong here!"
Fun statistical fact I heard in the last few days: 80% of all people who get a divorce knew within 10 days of meeting their spouse that something wasn't right. They had that GUT FEELING, and they went against their better judgement and were pressured a different way. It's important to believe in your gut feeling guys. If you BELIEVE Splinterlands is going to bounce back, then GO WITH IT! If you can hang in there because you don't need to take out money for your own daily reasons, then WHY ARE YOU TAKING OUT YOUR MONEY? Nothing in Splinterlands has changed in a negative way and IN FACT it's going in the POSTIVE direction. It's why Aggroed himself doesn't get down. He said something to the effect of "It's hard to be down about Splinterlands when last year we grew 17 fold." Something like that (not exactly quoted but something like that). Aggroed is listening TO HIS GUT and saying wait a minute... we've been here before, and Splinterlands made it, we will do it again.
Now, I do have some thoughts about this that I do hope Aggroed has in his mind always, and that is for another post I hope to share one day, but for the most part, really Splinterlands is the BEST opportunity for you to make money right now, and please, if you need that pep talk because you're influenced by the actions of those around you getting out of the market, come find positive people (like me! YAY!) who believe in it still. Don't read into their emotions per se but their actual FACTS. Get them to answer the hard questions that YOU are facing in your mind, and then ask yourself, if they believe, why don't I?
Splinterlands is Still the Way
Splinterlands is still the answer and I'm a very authentic person who will tell you if I feel it's not. I'm waiting to see what they do with land, and then I'll let you know if I feel Splinterlands has failed. I'm a positive person but I'm no fool. I know when I need to walk away from negative; trust me, I've learned my breaking point the hard way.
How to Break the Chains of Peer Pressure Psychology in Crypto
Just like for myself, you want to step away from the negative and examine what's really happening. Take that personality test I posted above, because it will let you know what easily influences you, and that is very helpful for you to understand. It allows you to be more objective and to trust yourself more. Ultimately, I want to end this post on the most positive thought I say quite often: YOU ARE ENOUGH! You have the answers, and YOU WILL KNOW what is best FOR YOU! If nothing has changed in Splinterlands but you're doubting it, then you have to ask yourself what HAS changed, and what I can see is that a lot of negativity has come out to chat now. There are different reasons for that, and that will be another post someday.
For now, just know: Trust YOUR GUT, because YOU ARE ENOUGH!
If you enjoyed my post and want to try Splinterlands, please use my referral link: https://splinterlands.com?ref=rosiew
Please remember my post is not meant to be financial advice and is just my opinion.
Follow These Folks:
Splinterlands: https://peakd.com/@splinterlands/
PeakMonsters: https://peakd.com/@peakmonsters/
Monster-Curator: https://peakd.com/@monster-curator/
1Up (#OneUp): https://www.1up.zone/
Here are some great links to join as well!
Splinterlands Discord: https://discord.gg/Tw7KjNsQGs
Monster Market Discord (Monster Curator): https://discord.gg/DR3J9rfRFV
PeakD Discord (PeakMonsters as well): https://discord.gg/7mQmzZeugE
NFT Studios Discord (aka 1UP Discord #OneUp): https://discord.gg/4VYBcNuVQd
You make some good points. Crypto has bull runs and bear markets. Bitcoin has been declared dead countless times. However, Splinterlands and Hive have the advantage that they are still fun regardless of the prices of the underlying assets!
I think the price of the tokens and cards in Splinterlands are down right now because a lot of money is being spent on Chaos Legion packs which takes that capital out of the ecosystem. However, those millions of dollars are what will support the further development of Splinterlands into an even more advanced game.
Hi Jordan! Thank you so much for stopping by and commenting! Yes, definitely people are getting ready to buy those packs! :) I just felt like this post was something important to write to remind people that if nothing has changed in a negative way in Splinterlands, it doesn't really mean it's time to get out of Splinterlands. ;) There might be some crazy other behind the scenes psychology going on here!! HEE HEE.
I'm hoping to get some packs for the sale. What about you?
I got kind of impatient so I decided to buy vouchers so that I could buy packs during the Phase 2 presale that just ended. Then I opened them and sold the gold foils and other cards I didn't need and repeated that cycle a few times.
Now at least I have enough airdrop points to receive the two cards that just dropped and hopefully the future ones, I satisfied that urge to open packs, and I have upgraded my Chaos Legion splinters and many of the monsters to the max level allowed in the Silver leagues.
When the general sale starts, I'm planning to buy another 100 packs to hold onto longterm and not open yet. Are you going to be opening yours? It's probably one of the most excting parts of this game!
I love the opening effect for the new packs. I will probably do as you have mentioned, open some, keep some if I go that route. Mainly I've invested in the land but I know I'll need cards for working the land so it's a bit of a catch and I'm limited so I will see how quickly these sell and that will let me know what to do (like how fast I need to come up with the funds for what I'm hoping to do). :)
Oh cool! I don't own any land yet, but I've been watching the price on the plots and considering whether to get one now or wait until after more of the details are released or after the rarity and type of the plots are revealed. I'd hate to only have one plot and then it turns out to be one that isn't very productive or useful. By that time the price of the plots could be much higher though. There's opportunity and risk to every decision!
Yes I know what you mean, Jordan! There's so much to wonder ... what will land be for Splniterlands? I'm so excited about it, and I think it's going to really be great, but it's true that everything's a risk for sure!
_
Thank you so very much, Master Splinter! YIPPEE! I appreciate it!!! :) Have a wonderful day!
I heard that all the time from my boss. All the way up until I told him I was giving my 2 weeks' notice and was going to be playing Splinterlands full time from now on (Since he wouldn't have understood "Splinterlands", I just said I was retiring on Bitcoin.).
Good answer! HAHAHA! :) People really don't know what can happen here in Splinterlands, even if you start from basically nothing. Now is such a great time to invest in it with the market being so low. ;) I cannot wait to see what this next year brings!! :) Thank you for commenting, Gregory!! :) You have a great day!
Slowly buying cards to fill out my lvl 2 deck. Looking forward to the general sale in a few days. It looks like supply and demand to me. Not quite sure what the ranked battle payout formula is so disapointed it keeps going down. That makes us take a look at our rentals and determine what we can afford to continue renting. End of season rentals have been holding up decently compared to overall prices. Love reading your stuff.
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Thank you so much, Steve! I'm glad you're enjoying my writing. I am excited to see what the general sale brings. Spring will be here soon and we will all remember these times as a blip on the map. Splinterlands has every reason to skyrocket, so we just wait and get ourselves ready, don't you think? :) Slowly buying cards is a GREAT plan. :)
Those who been in crypto longer than a year or two are use to dips. For those just starting Splinterlands they would say DEC is down a significant amount. I would say DEC is still up 4X its intended value.
YESSS!!! :) Completely agree! :)
Yay! 🤗
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