A lot of my foreign friends (and a disconcerting number of those in the United States) believe that the US election is over and that Biden won. They (at my guess, correctly) believe that Trump's lawsuits will fail -- but aren't familiar enough with the nitty-gritty details of the electoral college to realize that Trump still has a potential path to victory.
It is a very unfortunate fact that the Electoral College system relies on social norms and assumptions, not established codified law. And, of course, Trump loves to smash social norms and has been doing so his entire presidency. The scary reality is that there are no laws in the vast majority of states that prevent the state legislature from ignoring the vote in their state. They can legally send the electors that they choose who can then vote as they choose with no or minimal penalties. I wouldn't think that this is even a possibility -- except for the politics of the last five+ years.
The are a number of combinations of majority-Republican state legislatures that could reverse the election -- Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada are just the most obvious since their count lasted the longest. Michigan and Wisconsin also have majority-Republican legislatures with 16 electoral votes each. And this is a play that Trump and company are very aware of.
If you wish more details, read The Nation's The Election That Could Break America and/or Umair Haque's America Has a New President. Can It Keep Him?
Personally, I can't imagine California, the entirety of New England and a number of other states accepting this. The Republicans have already won two presidential contests (Bush vs. Gore and Trump vs. Clinton) in this century despite losing the majority of the vote. The Senate, where Republicans represent FAR fewer people than the Democrats, have had a majority that have made a mockery of both the impeachment and Supreme Court confirmation processes. There are substantial majorities of US citizens who support access to abortion, identical treatment for sexual minorities, less punishment for (if not outright legalization of) street drugs and a number of other issues who are ignored in favor of the opinions of a strident minority.
Legally, their only option is secession from the United States. I don't see a civil war happening because there is just no way in which the red states can beat the blue states (assuming that they even want to) and there will be enough people in the blue states who feel that they will be better off without the red states. The sad thing is . . . I really do wonder if this might not be the best thing for the United States . . . .
I'm also scared about the lawfare that Trump can use, a lot of people seems relieved thinking that is all over and the election is clear, but considering how Trump is I wouldn't subestimate his posibilities.
You are quite right to acknowledge that this election is far from over and the GOP has Constitutional options available to it that would re-elect Trump.
You've also inspired me to write a lengthy reply that I have turned into a full post. Thanks
https://peakd.com/election/@apshamilton/this-election-is-far-from-over
The State Legislatures have not only the Constitutional right, but the obligation, to make their own decision on the true will of the people when the vote count is either undecided or irrevocably tainted by fraud or illegality.
Yeah. I read your post. Picking random people and pretending that they are important. Claiming that there is voter fraud where even Republican judges disagree. Not recognizing the blatant voter suppression that manipulating the USPS caused. Claiming that no one can claim the election when Trump started early the morning after the election.
Your own words explain why the state legislatures shouldn't this. They should "make their own decision on the true will of the people when the vote count is either undecided or irrevocably tainted by fraud or illegality" -- but NONE of this has happened on the winning side (just the losing side).
I upvoted your post 100% and thanked you for inspiring my post.
Why are you downvoting my post?
One of the nice things about Hive is that one can have civil debate with people one disagrees with.
There is no other place I can find a rational Democrat to debate this with.
Talking about social norms, disagreement alone is not an acceptable reason for a downvote.
You are correct. Since this is a non-science debate -- I am willing to go against my oft-stated normal policy of down-voting cherry-picking, strawmen, and other rhetorical tactics (as pointed out at the beginning of both my replies). I have now up-voted. You have indeed been very reasonable in a most-often heated debate and I am more than willing to recognize that (however, I am not changing my policy of down-voting science-denying articles -- those are NOT "disagreement" when they employ rhetorical tactics and statistical games rather than honest debate). Humans are very susceptible to confirmation bias and group-think and need to check constantly to ensure that they haven't fallen prey to it.
Thank you. Agreed.
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