I’ve written about what we might reasonably infer, if it is ever confirmed that UAPs are intelligent extraterrestrial visitors. I’ve written about diplomatic considerations that would apply if that turns out to be the case. I would be remiss if I didn’t also write about why extraterrestrial visitors are unfortunately one of the least likely explanations for UAPs.
This will not be an article about the Fermi paradox because everybody and their grandmother already knows what that is. I also won’t be addressing the Drake Equation, either the original or the more recently revised version, again because everybody has heard of it and already understands habitable planets are rare.
One of the reasons I haven’t seen discussed often is that independently evolved biointelligence would likely be separated from us not only by vast gulfs of space, but also vast gulfs of time. The odds that there would exist an intelligent alien civilization not only close enough to find us but which evolved concurrently with humanity so that we’re at a sufficiently similar level of development is vanishingly small.
If you look at how long humanity has existed in a recognizable form, it’s a blip in terms of cosmological time. The narrow little sliver of our species history when we’ve had the ability to send radio signals into space (and listen for incoming signals) is even more brief.
The pace of technological progress has also been staggering. My late grandmother was born before automobiles were available to the public, and died after ISS construction had begun. She witnessed the genesis of electricity as a utility, heavier than air manned flight, computers, the internet, spaceflight and nearly every other technological feat we associate with the modern age…all within one woman’s lifespan.
It stands to reason then, that once a species attains the level of technological development necessary for radio communications (which begins the period during which they could contact us, or be contacted by us) they have mere generations left before they’re post-biological. At which point they will have such different priorities than us that diplomacy, trade, cross-immigration and so on wouldn’t be considerations. If they visited us it would be to study us at arm’s length, the way we study microbes or ants.
So that gives us a timeframe of perhaps three to five hundred years during which we’re both still biological but possess the technology necessary to contact one another. These incredibly brief developmental stages would need to align with one another (theirs with ours) very closely for that to occur, and we’d only have the means to physically meet one another if it happened one of us was at the tail end of the biological stage.
This brings us to the question of why we’ve not seen machine ETs yet. Possibly we have, possibly that’s what UAPs are and among ufologists it’s a popular hypothesis, but that isn’t what this article is about. As machines are in all respects better suited to survive in space, not requiring water, air, food, pressurized habitat space, etc. and with suspended animation as an inherent capability, they should be able to spread through the cosmos very quickly (on cosmological timescales).
That is to say, unless humans are the first technologically adept species to evolve in this galaxy, we should be up to our eyeballs in alien robots already. Even if they’re limited to a small fraction of light speed, a little napkin math reveals they would be able to fully saturate the galaxy in less than 100k years, although this assumes resources for self-replication are always readily available. Their speed of propagation may ultimately be more constrained by resources than by the speed of light.
Much has been written about Dark Forest theory, as an explanation for why we’ve not yet been visited by independently evolved biointelligence, nor detected any sign of its existence. Much less often have I seen anybody discuss aestivation as an explanation for why we’ve not yet seen any confirmation of alien machines.
Basically if you’re intelligent machines and your goal is self-preservation (having originated perhaps as biointelligence, retaining an evolved fear of death) then it doesn’t make sense to colonize the galaxy yet. The universe is still relatively hot. Not on a temperature scale humans can relate to but compared to how cool it will be towards the tail end.
If you wait until the average ambient temperature of the universe has significantly cooled, it becomes possible to extract much more work out of stars. Black holes are also an energy source that’s potentially much longer lasting, and they will become much more numerous as the universe ages.
These are the fantastical explanations. Some of the more mundane ones include the obvious political utility of spooking China at a time when the possibility of a Sino-American war looms large. The US Government doesn’t have a very solid track record when it comes to engaging honestly with American citizens, and there’s been an internally documented focus on perception management as a key pillar of the government’s PR strategy since the 1980s.
If UAPs were really something the government couldn’t figure out, why broadcast that fact? It only highlights the shortcomings of our intelligence community. What will disclosing it to the public accomplish? What can the public bring to the table that trained intelligence professionals can’t? Why would the government share potentially sensitive information like this, and why now?
On the other hand, if in fact UAPs are advanced drones, releasing video of them performing impressive maneuvers around aircraft carriers, evading fighter jets and shutting down nuclear power plants is a good way to demonstrate some of their capabilities to a hostile foreign power, with plausible deniability. You can just say whatever they are, they’re not yours and you’re as mystified about it as everyone else.
There have also been reports by the Iranian military of UAPs jamming radar on their bases. If the UAPs were revealed to be of US origin, that may constitute an act of war. By playing the “maybe they’re aliens” game, the US can simultaneously maintain plausible deniability when it uses these drones to violate the sovereignty of Iran, while also subtly warning hostile powers like China about its technological capabilities.
Bolstering this theory is the existence of the NEMESIS program which entails the use of high speed drones which spoof radar signals to create the appearance of fighter jets on enemy radar. However while this may explain some of the more recent Naval UAP footage it’s important to remember that military UAP sightings go back to WW2.
There may not be a single answer to what UAPs are. Different sightings may have different origins/explanations. But while it’s fruitful to explore every possibility, in the name of parsimony we ought to prefer mundane explanations to fantastical ones until the evidence reaches a level of quality and quantity which brokers no alternative. “Take care not to fool yourself”, Richard Feynman once said, “because you are the easiest one for you to fool.”