I'm seeing a lot of completely deluded commentary and dangerous response from clueless western leaders to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
I am not pro-Russia nor am I pro-Ukraine (though I have sympathy for the individual people there).
I am a militarily trained (Australia) neutral observer who has been aware for many years of the possibility of these events after reading Israeli Professor David Passig's brilliant book "2048" (published in 2008) where he predicts:
Russia will re-conquer large parts of the former Eastern Europe, including Poland and the Baltic States, as well as countries north of Turkey.
A couple of years ago I also read British General Sir Richard Shirreff's excellent fictionalised account of a Russian invasion of the Baltics which has been amazingly prescient about Russian military capabilities and tactics.
We are dealing with high intensity warfare of the likes not seen in Europe since WWII and this is a time for clear thinking.
Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
Because Ukraine has been under Russian control for most of the last 1000 years and is the historic birthplace of Russians.
The very word “Russia” comes from the Kievian Rus ethnicity.
Because Russia needs buffer zones to feel secure. With good justification as it has been invaded many times and has no natural obstacles to protect it.
To quote Prof Passig (at page 201):
It took a small group of Slavs centered around Kiev 1000 years to become and empire (since Kievan Rus was founded in 884 until World War Two), and another 56 years to lose that status in 1991.
No civilization can easily renounce an acheivement attained with the blood of its people and centuries of hard-won efforts.
Because stupid Western leaders poked the Bear one time too many.
The Current Military Situation
It is deluded Hopium to suggest that Russia is bungling the job or is bogged down.
People saying these things have no idea how warfare actually works.
As I write this Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian border defensive lines in multiple locations, invaded much of the country from North, South and East and have surrounded major cities such as Kiev and Kharkov.
The Russians seem to have destroyed hundreds of Ukrainian military facilities and command and control structures. They have achieved complete air superiority.
They have done so at extraordinary speed and impressive accuracy.
A better performance so far than the US's invasions of Iraq (which took 3 weeks and many more troops to reach Iraq's capital in a country half the size of Ukraine).
Ukraine is a very big country which had (on paper at least) 400,000 troops and 2000+ tanks. It has a proud military tradition and is no pushover. But the Russian military seems to have overcome this quite easily.
Now Ukraine is arming untrained citizens with basic weapons to fight the forces that its large force of trained professionals with heavy weapons could not. This is suicidal and completely irresponsible.
A country needs to be defended at its borders - that is the whole point of having a country with borders and a military to defend it in the first place.
The Ukrainian front line and second line defences at its borders have clearly failed.
If your border defences fail you need an orderly tactical withdrawal to third and fourth lines of defences that maintain contact and communication between your forces.
These have also clearly failed for Ukraine.
For any military force defending a nation to be effective it must maintain internal lines of manoeuvre and communication to be able to move forces around to confront the enemy force concentrations.
Once this is lost and your cities are surrounded you have lost and should surrender quickly to save lives.
The only reason for holding out in a city (as Warsaw did in 1939 at enormous cost) is if there is a real possibility of other countries will come to your aid militarily in a serious and major way. There is no possibility of this.
Is Putin a madman?
He may be bad, but he is not mad!
He has a clear plan and good reasons from a Russian perspective.
He is doing his job and acting in Russia's national interest.
This is obviously against Ukrainian national interest.
The question is whether it is really against anyone else's true national interests (other than the Baltics and Poland).
That's why no one else is doing anything to really help Ukraine.
People who thought large scale warfare, invasions and tank armies bliztkrieging across open plains were ancient history have been proved VERY wrong.
Dangerous, Stupid behaviour by Europe
There is a very big difference between supplying arms in peacetime and supplying arms to one side in wartime.
The latter can be considered an act of war!
Germany and the Netherlands have announced that they will be supplying Ukraine with various lightweight anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems.
Not only is this completely pointless - How will they get this equipment into Ukraine now that the airspace is closed and the borders controlled by Russian troops?
It is also very dangerous because it gives Russia cassus belli against Germany & the Netherlands.
Europe is very poorly defended - Putin may be tempted to go further.
At the height of the Cold War the US had 6000 tanks in Europe, today it only has around 100!
Have a look at this table of tank numbers in geographical order from East to West.
Russia: 12,270
Ukraine: 2105
Poland: 868
Germany: 328
Netherlands: 18
The geography of northern Europe is one great big long plain from Moscow to Amsterdam via Minsk, Warsaw and Berlin. It is perfect tank country.
Even during the Cold War when the US had massive forces in Europe and the Europeans also had large military forces it was uncertain whether NATO would have been able to resist a Warsaw Pact invasion of Europe.
Today while Russian forces are perhaps only 40% of the strength of Soviet forces, NATO forces are less than 10% of their Cold War strength.
The operational readiness of Germany's military is extremely poor Less than 20% of its combat aircraft and helicopters are actually available for combat and less than 100 of its tanks are operational according to numerous reports over the past 5 years.
What should NATO do?
What needs to be done if NATO is serious about stopping Putin is:
- the replacement of Biden by Trump;
- Immediately move 2 US carrier battlegroups to the Baltic, and 2 more to the Eastern Med (where they can threaten Putin's Syrian position).
- Relocate many squadrons of the US airforce to Germany and Poland.
- massively reinforce Poland with 1000s of tanks & 100,000+ troops (this will take many months to be implemented and effective);
- Immediate raising defence spending of all NATO states to 6% of GDP and re-institute universal conscription in Europe (there is no point in giving arms to untrained civilians as Ukraine is doing - it will just get them killed.)
- EU turn back on all its coal fired and nuclear fired power stations to cut reliance on Russian gas.
Until Europe returns its defence capabilities to Cold War levels (US had 6000 tanks in Europe) it faces the real risk that a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine will be followed by similar campaigns against the progressively militarily weaker countries of Poland then Germany and the Netherlands.
Once Putin controls major EU nations like Germany, Poland and the Netherlands he can control the whole EU via existing legal mechanisms.
Details regarding Tank active protection systems used by Russia and Israel
Because of the effectiveness of anti-tank weapons, since the end of the Cold War many militaries have drastically reduced their tanks forces and considered the age of tank warfare to be over. Putin has clearly proved them wrong.
Only two countries in the world have invested heavily in Active Protection Systems that protect tanks (and helicopters) from rockets and missile: Russia and Israel.
I have written about this extensively in these posts.
https://peakd.com/israel/@apshamilton/return-of-the-tank-to-battlefield-supremacy-wyiqlpvn
https://peakd.com/tanks/@apshamilton/tank-active-protection-systems-compared-trophy-vs-afghanit
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Really appreciate the different perspective here! I'm always skeptical of the sensationalism that's everywhere. This seems logical and well thought-out. I don't know enough about where I stand on either side but I can find hundreds of sensational clips or write-ups but few that break things down logically.
Reading through all the comments, it's quite interesting and I'm curious to see if your predictions are correct.
Thanks.
God forbid that it should come to such a great war. I myself can hardly believe the statements my (German) government is making. It would be important, after the dramatic history between Germans and Russians, to continue to conduct relations, which have hardly healed, in a friendly manner.
With all naivety, it should be clear that if Russia continues to be serious and attacks, the only ones who could intervene would be the USA plus maybe other allies. That would be a total catastrophe for the peoples here in Europe (which you have already mentioned here). I hope that reason will prevail.
I have a hard time to see the stupid opinion-mongering here in the media.
Incredibly accurate and bleaklook at this horrible situaation!
However, no one should act "shocked", as we move forward, i feel the Baltics might get targetet with dire costs!
Eythorphoto!
Yes the Baltics are at risk but if Poland is sufficiently reinforced it will deter Putin from attacking them because of the risk of counterattack on Kalingrad.
You can't risk putting substantial forces in the Baltics themselves because they could easily be trapped by Russia closing the gap between Kalingrad and Belarus.
But why are they holding out, do you think? That's what I keep asking myself, having reached much the same conclusion as you did above. I keep seeing my peers praise the "heroism" of the Ukrainian people right now, and while obviously we can talk of individual heroism here, on a larger scale, it's just senseless waste of human life at this point. As you said, it's not like they're coming to save them, nor like they can successfully defend themselves a la long. So why? That's what I don't get.
I think what you said here is largely also what you answered on my post (no? I read it earlier, but couldn't reply), so I'm just going to reply here.
Why? Honest question here, because while I've heard this argument a lot in the past couple of days, it largely seemed to be an emotional one made by right-leaning Americans. I don't think your pushing for this is emotional, though, hence my question.
Great (and truly unbiased, which is commendable) view of the situation! Thank you for that!
Because Trump is unpredictable which means Putin will be more cautious.
He also projects strength which American needs desperately right now.
And because he's the only President of the last 4 who did not have Russia invade another country on his watch.
Are you serious ???? Trump is another lunatic.
Maybe, but it takes one strongman / "lunatic" to deal with another.
In my view the "crazy man" Trump is a carefully constructed facade to but his enemies off balance.
Trump is Putin’s puppet. He’s a clown. Putin laughs at him.
"He is doing his job and acting in Russia's national interest."
"Not only is this completely pointless - How will they get this equipment into Ukraine now that the airspace is closed and the borders controlled by Russian troops?"
"It is also very dangerous because it gives Russia cassus belli against Germany & the Netherlands."
By any objective assessment Ukraine is a huge strategic asset to Russia (as it has been for centuries) and recapturing it in a short and highly effective campaign will be seen by Russians as a huge victory. From a military perspective it has been one of the most impressive lightning campaigns in history. The US took 3 weeks to capture Baghdad and Iraq is half the size and had a weaker military.
All this stuff regarding the Ukrainians causing large Russian losses is completely unsubstantiated BS. I've checked it out and there is a complete lack of video evidence of large losses. The occasional tank or jeep burning is insignificant.
The facts are that Russian forces have breached border defences in multiple places, penetrated far into the country including the most protected areas and surrounded the 3 biggest cities as well as encircling and enveloping 100,000 Ukranian troops and Azov Battalion in the East.
This is how you win wars. Armoured manoeuvre to trap and destroy the enemy. It is how Russian destroyed the Nazis.
Yelinski is negotiating which means he knows he has lost. The US offered to evacuate him which means they know how bad it is.
The Ukranian Army is finished and will be allowed to surrender and go home. The Azov Battallions will be wiped out.
Ukraine will effectively surrender before the rewards period for this post is over.
Any cost of the campaign is more than offset by the increase in oil and gas revenues.
He is also causing Europe to destroy the SWIFT system that is a foundation of the US dollar
reserve currency status.
Re getting in weapons.
Russia controls all the roads from Western Ukraine.
Russia controls the Black Sea and will soon control Odessa (which is majority Russian speaking).
There is no chance of these weapons reaching their intended destination. They will be destroyed or end up in Russian hands.
The whole point of my tank numbers table and details about the weakness of key NATO members is that NATO is a paper tiger. The US has very small forces in Europe. Turkey is no longer reliable and will not go to war with Russia (which has it surrounded because Syria). The rest of NATO is weak and no match for Russia given its performance in Ukraine.
This is why Europe is freaking out.
Where do you get your information?
"Ukraine will effectively surrender before the rewards period for this post is over."
The German Chancellor seems to have got my memo. Massive (50%+) increase in German defence spending (from 1.4% of GPD to over 2%).
If they had done this when Trump told them to (4 years ago) Putin would not be in Ukraine.
#truestory
Any truth to the rumor that the khazarian hydra is losing its head?
Thanks for this extremely interesting perspective.
Putin tries to get under his control all post soviet countries.
He had the same invasion in Georgia a few years ago.
But anyways, I find all these actions meaningless and anti-mainkind
Thbaks for this quite un-biased view!
Poland, Finland, Sweden are next. Then it’s on to Germany, France and England. Finally he will destroy Israel. His arch enemy. There is no way to stop Putin now. It’s over. You better learn to speak Russian.
:)
I would expect a nuclear first strike from nato if the fear comes peak.
besides this,
Russia doesn't have the infrastructure and the workforce to overtake Ukraine. How would say overtake another country?
His ultimate goal is the total destruction of Israel. You better buy some supplies.
Its utterly ridiculous to suggest that Israel is Putin's arch enemy.
And attacking Ukraine is on a logical path to destroying Israel?!!
Why not just attack us directly via Syria?
This is even more ludicrous than the western mainstream narrative.
Why can't people just accept the very logical and clearly stated reason that Putin wants to restore Russia's historical empire.
Putin is an anti semite. He is moving to “decapitate” the Global Elite / Rothschilds … his code word for Jews. He is worse than Hitler.
Ha Ha. You are obviously trolling me. :-)
No… this is what I see people saying about Putin. That he cleansed Russia of the Rothschilds and plans to do the same in Ukraine. This is what Trump supporters are saying in comments.
Well they are quite wrong. There were never any actual Rothschilds in Russia in the first place.
If this is code for Jews then it is even more wrong.
I was in Moscow a couple of years ago and the Jewish community is doing well and is treated far better by Putin than by ANY Russian leader ever.
I know its a low bar, but Putin is the most pro-Jewish leader Russia has ever had.
There is a lot of trade and business between Israel and Russia and Ukraine because of close ties resulting from 25% of Israeli population being from the former Soviet Union.
Looks like what I've gathered is correct.
80 years ago this is where the Nazis ended up heading to Stalingrad.
And surface to air? Correct.
Let's see. Logistics is becoming a Russian issue.
I'm floored... Suspected Russian transports have been dropped full of airborne troops.
Dang. Wow.
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I also support your opinion and think that everyone is guilty. Not like they are telling people everywhere that only one side is guilty. There are too many interests in Ukraine. From so many parts.
Hi! I do respect your opinion on the matter. However I live near the front. Odessa region/Black Sea. I have relatives in many other front cities too. And I know what is going on not from the massmedia. No doubt the Russian army is bigger than Ukrainian. But Putin made ONE Big Mistake - Even those citisens who was neutral to Russia before Febr.25 2022 now hate him and fight. Russian army may win some battles but not the war. Putin has no chance. With regards