You may have heard the expression "Sell in May and go away" recently at least once or twice. Its origins are not from the crypto space but have proved quite accurate in this space as well since we are closely correlated to stocks, particularly the tech ones.
I tend to believe it will hold true from the price standpoint this summer too. That doesn't exclude short bursts of volatility during the summer, but mainly I believe we will move in range or slightly in a downtrend. Basically, boring and maybe even exasperating, for anyone wanting prices to pump and keep pumping. Note that there may be tokens that will likely pump during the summer before the market moves a muscle (HIVE was a small example this weekend and will likely be again). If you hunt and catch them, good for you! I'd rather walk the paths I'm familiar with.
This period of calm is very important in the bull market. We can't all and the entire bull market run around aimlessly like headless chickens. That's left for the end of the bull market, when, trust me, very few will be able to stay cool and have a clear mind.
This is another period that can be used for building (without much pressure), accumulating, and positioning. Don't hate it, embrace it! Be happy for it! Learn to use it!
On the accumulation side, I'd like to offer a tip for a boring market...
There are multiple ways to approach it, but one is quite easy and mostly passive.
What I am talking about is being a liquidity provider and earning fees (and maybe rewards too). Now, not all pools are made equal. I wrote a post with tips and tricks about diesel pools in the past, so I won't go into that again.
If you expect the market to go mostly sideways or maybe in a slow downtrend during the summer, as I do, then a more defensive pool could be a good choice. It protects to some degree from a potential downtrend, and, if you are not expecting a serious uptrend, you are not expecting to lose that momentum.
Here I would consider pools that have at least on one side a stablecoin or a token that acts like a stablecoin (maybe surprisingly, LEO, for long periods, and more loosely, DEC). I wouldn't disconsider Bitcoin either separately or in a pool, during this summer.
Of course, HIVE has the advantage you can earn curation rewards which add up even when the price doesn't go up. And there's also HBD in savings, but 3 days may be too long for some people (and too short for others).
If you want to profit from potential future P&Ds on HIVE during this summer without actually participating actively in trading them, having liquidity in the SWAP.HIVE-SWAP.HBD diesel pool is a way to do it because you capitalize on the increased trading fees between SWAP.HIVE and SWAP.HBD during these events.
When you choose your liquidity pools outside the Hive ecosystem, be sure you understand the conditions under which you offer liquidity. Is your stake locked for a certain period? Are you taxed for early withdrawal? What are the fees you pay? Does it autocompound or do you need to manually compound? Is there a farm token? Etc.
Also outside of Hive, you would find the so-called concentrated liquidity (EVMs - Uniswap, Osmosis - called supercharged liquidity). That's a way to define in what range would you make your liquidity available, instead of making it available at any price point, in which case, only a smaller portion of your position is likely to collect fees for swaps. With concentrated liquidity, you practically earn much higher fees if you set the range well.
Want to check out my collection of posts?
It's a good way to pick what interests you.
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You're mostly right about something and that's sticking what what one knows. I don't have a lot of money to play around the market with and the truth is that even if I did, I'll rather buy hive and more SPS. The market is truly boring and except for the pump done by Hive days ago, it's pretty much drab everywhere
Not everyone thinks like that. And while I do like to explore stuff, I also prefer to focus on the things that are most familiar to me.
Like you, I see the value in both, even when others don't.
Well, seems like the market wants to contradict me today (as if I matter, lol), and we have some fireworks. But it's a looong summer.
In this space, it appears that vacation doesn't enter the mind of crypto enthusiasts. In the stock market, May is taken as the vacation of big buyers.
I wouldn't be so sure. Historical data shows pretty unimpressive results between April and September for crypto too. But that doesn't exclude days like we have today or even more sustained trends, but not throughout the summer, a longer period. I still believe that.
I'll also rather stick with what I'm familiar with, especially during this phase of the season. Too much moving around can prevent the compounding effect on one's investment to take place. Always good to have liquid funds around for unexpected pumps(or dumps).
I love that. If more people would think like that...
Indeed! I've been caught all in way too many times, so now I prefer to have some liquid or semi-liquid funds around.
Perhaps, that's I should be working on in the next few months, getting more liquid or semi-liquid funds. Having some form of balance between liquid and illiquid funds is a great thing to aim for.
It makes sense, of course, especially as we approach the end of the bull market, but even before, when some opportunities may arise.
These are good advice. I remember your pools post, so I just enter those that I am fine with getting either of if one goes badly. I do hope that this is just the calm before the storm like in previous halving.
That's what I generally do. I avoid pools where one side or both are tokens I wouldn't want to hold separately, regardless of the APR.
It is... Only "storm" sounds like a bad thing, and it won't be, lol.
Haha, I guess it can be taken as a bad thing, my bad. I do agree that it isn't.
We might have a few fireworks already. But I still think it's a looong summer, and it's unlikely to have a sustained trend starting now...
From your experience when do you think Hive will pump again, this same month of May?
You're right, we really are closely related to stocks trade so perhaps we might see something special this month...
And I can't say I've heard the saying before but if it's a saying then I guess this month is very special
Wouldn't I like to know that? 😀 They don't let me know in advance, unfortunately.
I can see what everyone on Hive can see. But maybe I pay more attention to the signs, occasionally.
I don't expect anything special this month. It's more like a period, that starts in April and ends in September.
😂😂😂😂😂 smart answers.... I guess I'll have to learn how to spot the signs
But would definitely like to be friends with people that can spot signs 😂😂😂💯💯👌
Great choices, both of them, lol!
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I am fine with it being boring. It means that you won't get pushed around by FUD/FOMO. It will eventually pass and I wonder if it's the ETF effect on crypto. Maybe we won't see too much happen until summer is over.
Nope, this happened before ETFs too, and some of the people investing in ETFs are also aware of the saying and act accordingly. I still expect those who want to accumulate (and there are enough who can't enter or exit at once) will do it, but will do it quietly, without making waves in the market.
Boring is good. Not for traders but for us who have lots of passive tokens.
After the period when everything goes up, I love those times when things are boring the most. They often make a difference too.
In this calm period, it is better to invest in tokens like Hive where you can earn curation rewards just as you have said
Thanks!
Yep, it's important to remember curation rewards (or other types of rewards from HIVE inflation) when people talk about the price of HIVE not going up.