A friend of mine, that does not invest in crypto, reached out to me because his dad became interested in investing in Bitcoin, since the halving day is next year.
I told him that the halving is irrelevant, it is designed to be irrelevant with time, it is designed to a logarithmic emission so each time it happens it lowers its impact.
Screenshot from halving countdown at https://coinmarketcap.com/
By logarithmic it means that the first halvings had a huge impact:
- There were few Bitcoins in circulation
- The emission was cut by dozens of Bitcoin
But as supply grows and more halvings happen:
- There are many more Bitcoin in circulation
- The halving barely cut emissions by a couple Bitcoins
Illustrative chart from https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/bitcoin-halving
So by design the more halvings we have the more irrelevant future halvings become.
However
The halving could have an impact in the price, but not because of a reduction of Bitcoin printing, but actually because people expect an impact on the price. A self-fulfilling prophecy.
The halving is the reason why my friend and his dad became interested in buying Bitcoin, so the marketing, the hype behind the halving, may generate demand, so it would not be because if the lower supply but actually the higher demand.
Personally
I think that the halving is priced in. I would advise to not buy into Bitcoin only because of the halving. If I were not into crypto I would rather miss out. But I am into crypto, so I like Bitcoin, but I don't recommend people to buy because of the halving. Either buy it because you like the coin or because you wanna store value, or transfer money internationally (although fees...) but don't buy because of the halving.
If Bitcoin goes up 10x, which I doubt, I would rather people be mad because I said "do not buy" than having people tell me "hey, I bought Bitcoin and the only thing that halved was the price, I lost money ****crying face emoji****"
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