Dear Hiveans,
today a short post on the coming end of Russia.
Putin dug his and Russia's own grave, by starting one war after the other: 2008 Georgia, 2014 Crimea/Ukraine, 2022 Ukraine. Currently it looks like the war is tipping very slowly in Russia's favor. But this will prove to be transitory. (In 1942 most people thought Europe would be lost to the Nazis for decades.) The Battle of Kharkiv (2022, wiki) and the 2022 Kherson counteroffensive showed how quickly the fortunes of war can change.
As written before (here or here or here or here), Russia is done, demographically, financially, economically, morally and politically. An empire that expands too far wastes resources, cannot cope with the opposing forces demographically and economically, and ultimately implodes. Her final collapse after many decades of decay may take some years, but most of us will see it. The support of Ukraine by western governments is not sufficient currently, but over time western weapons industry will outproduce Russia by far and adequately equip Ukraine.
Though this collapse will be accompanied by a lot of death and misery, politically this is necessary, as it was with the German empire or the Ottoman Empire or the Spanish Empire. Countries that repeatedly invade their neighbors and other states eventually end up on the trash heap of history.
The main questions I have for the time after Russia's collapse:
- What new countries will emerge? A new baltic republic around Kaliningrad? Tatarstan? Bashkortostan? Dagestan? Chechnya? Siberia?
- What form of government will these entities have?
- Who will store Russia's nukes?
- Who will exploit the resources that (today) lie within Russia? Probably competent international companies. And let's hope that a certain percentage of their profits will flow to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Have a great day,
zuerich
Liebe Hiver,
heute ein kurzer Post über das kommende Ende Russlands.
Putin hat sein eigenes und Russlands Grab geschaufelt, indem er einen Krieg nach dem anderen begann: 2008 Georgien, 2014 Krim/Ukraine, 2022 Ukraine. Derzeit sieht es so aus, als würde sich der Krieg ganz langsam zu Russlands Gunsten wenden. Aber das wird sich als vorübergehend erweisen. (1942 dachten die meisten Menschen, Europa wäre für Jahrzehnte an die Nazis verloren.) Die Schlacht von Charkiw (2022, wiki) und die Gegenoffensive von Cherson 2022 haben gezeigt, wie schnell sich das Kriegsgeschick ändern kann.
Wie bereits geschrieben (hier oder hier oder hier oder hier), ist Russland erledigt, demographisch, finanziell, wirtschaftlich, moralisch und politisch. Ein Imperium, das sich zu weit ausdehnt, verschwendet Ressourcen, kann mit den gegnerischen Kräften demografisch und wirtschaftlich nicht mithalten und implodiert schließlich. Sein endgültiger Zusammenbruch nach vielen Jahrzehnten des Verfalls mag noch einige Jahre dauern, aber die meisten von uns werden ihn erleben. Die Unterstützung der Ukraine durch westliche Regierungen ist derzeit nicht ausreichend, aber mit der Zeit wird ihre Waffenproduktion die Russlands weit übertreffen und sie werden die Ukraine angemessen ausrüsten.
Dieser Zusammenbruch wird zwar mit viel Tod und Elend einhergehen, ist aber politisch notwendig, so wie es beim Deutschen Reich oder dem Osmanischen Reich oder dem Spanischen Reich der Fall war. Länder, die immer wieder ihre Nachbarn und andere Staaten überfallen, landen irgendwann auf dem Müllhaufen der Geschichte.
Die wichtigsten Fragen, die ich mir für die Zeit nach dem Zusammenbruch Russlands stelle:
- Welche neuen Länder werden entstehen? Eine neue baltische Republik um Kaliningrad? Tatarstan? Baschkortostan? Dagestan? Tschetschenien? Sibirien?
- Welche Regierungsform werden diese Entitäten haben?
- Wer wird über Russlands Atomwaffen verfügen?
- Wer wird die Ressourcen ausbeuten, die (heute) in Russland liegen? Wahrscheinlich kompetente internationale Unternehmen. Und hoffen wir, dass ein gewisser Prozentsatz ihrer Gewinne in den Wiederaufbau der Ukraine fließen wird.
Have a great day,
zuerich
Queridos Hiveanos,
hoy un breve post sobre el próximo fin de Rusia.
Putin cavó su propia tumba y la de Rusia, iniciando una guerra tras otra: 2008 Georgia, 2014 Crimea / Ucrania, 2022 Ucrania. Actualmente parece que la guerra se está inclinando muy lentamente a favor de Rusia. Pero esto resultará ser transitorio. (La batalla de Kharkiv (2022, wiki y la contraofensiva de Kherson en 2022 demostraron lo rápido que puede cambiar la suerte de la guerra.
Como se ha escrito antes (aquí o aquí o aquí o aquí), Rusia está acabada, demográfica, financiera, económica, moral y políticamente. Un imperio que se expande demasiado malgasta recursos, no puede hacer frente a las fuerzas contrarias demográfica y económicamente, y acaba implosionando. Su colapso final tras muchas décadas de decadencia puede tardar algunos años, pero la mayoría de nosotros lo veremos. El apoyo a Ucrania por parte de los gobiernos occidentales no es suficiente en la actualidad, pero con el tiempo superarán con creces a Rusia y equiparán adecuadamente a Ucrania.
Aunque este colapso irá acompañado de mucha muerte y miseria, políticamente esto es necesario, como lo fue con el imperio alemán o el imperio otomano o el imperio español. Los países que invaden repetidamente a sus vecinos y a otros estados acaban finalmente en el basurero de la historia.
Las principales preguntas que me hago para después del colapso de Rusia son:
- ¿Qué nuevos países surgirán? ¿Una nueva república báltica alrededor de Kaliningrado? ¿Tatarstán? ¿Bashkortostán? ¿Daguestán? ¿Chechenia? ¿Siberia?
- ¿Qué forma de gobierno tendrán estas entidades?
- ¿Quién almacenará las armas nucleares de Rusia?
- ¿Quién explotará los recursos que (hoy) yacen en Rusia? Probablemente empresas internacionales competentes. Y esperemos que un cierto porcentaje de sus beneficios se destine a la reconstrucción de Ucrania.
Have a great day,
zuerich
Guten tag! Dear @zuerich !
Do you think Putin will fall and Russia will collapse? Your argument is interesting!
By the way, East Asians like me generally think a little differently than you do.
I think there is a good chance that China will start a war on the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan before Russia collapses!
Currently, China and Japan are competing for hegemony in East Asia. They are watching the war in Europe and looking for an opportunity to expand their power and territory.
They perceive Russia's expansion or collapse as an opportunity for new profits for them.
So, East Asians like me are worried that World War III will break out!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War
Danke!
Interesting. I thought of China when I read this.
Dear @agmoore !
Are you european?
Nice meet to you!
I am not chinese but, eastasian!
I have study about china!
Thank you!
Hi @goldgrifin007,
I live in the U.S.
I respectfully disagree with almost everything you've said above and have written a long detailed post in response.
https://peakd.com/russia/@apshamilton/can-ukraine-still-win-can-nato-survive-not-if-it-pisses-of-israel
Thanks for the inspiration.
he doesnt care and give a single fuck lol
hypocrist getting on other's nerves with his double standard like his code of conduct
(just like the whole in line west)
The Russians have been slow to realize what kind of leaders they have, some may argue that bringing the worst in society (prisoners to the front as cannon fodder) is a way to purge the system, but sooner or later it will take valuable lives!
"What new countries will emerge?"
Don't underestimate the fear of esp. European politicians of instability (& nuclear weapons in rogue hands). Scholz et al. are already doing their best to dampen Russia's fall. It's quite likely that they will also support the Russian regime (no matter how genocidal) if Russia appears to be falling apart.
Yes. When Russia is really shaking or wavering, it may be too late for European countries to stop a collapse. In any case what a time to be alive.
This is such an interesting take and although the lines seemed to point to the fact that this can never happen, the points you've raised has made me rethink. God willing, we'll be there to see it.
!LUV the memes. 🌺
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Russia's Greed would soon topple over itself...
As you've said, we've seen it happen numerous times before.
As always, love the memes 😂😂
Muy buena la frase de Churchill
Yes, indeed, he was a fine diplomat, speaker, and politician! A political genius indeed, all the more compared to some of the political figures nowadays. All the best!
Big one!
I have always knew this will not play out seeing Putin coming in again as Russia president. Well let's see how it comes
!LOL
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Very interesting post, dear Zuerich! Very well written and with some very valuable conclusions, as always, of course! We need to continue to stand with Ukraine, those of us who previously supported their beautiful and noble cause for peace here on the blockchain and beyond. I know for certain I will continue to do so and I would like to thank you so much for all your constant support! It meant (and still means a lot to me).
I will continue to bring my remaining resources from Steemit to Hive and purchase charity badges. I am still not 100% withdrawn (you most likely if not certainly know the reasons why I decided to mostly withdraw from Hive, not of my own will but rather because of external causes). I am also very, very sad to have known that you have been wrongly downvoted on the grounds of alleged spam. That was absolutely ridiculous at best (actually tremendously erroneous and illogical). Keep up the good work, take care, and all the best! Best regards from Romania! Thank you so much for your great economic advices! 🙂
yeah check it out
lol