After a very busy Christmas period in the Premier League, fans and FPL managers are now left with a mid-season lull in proceedings with a weekend of FA Cup ties and then an elongated GW21.
It means that depending on how the fixtures fall, some EPL sides will play just once in the league during January! It therefore felt like an opportune time to do some more general analysis and stats on the state of the 2 H2H leagues that Hive has this season.
The relegation battle and the push for promotion
One of the best things about the head to head league format with it's 2 divisions is that every game week now counts. Whether that's in an individual fixture where managers can win Hive for beating their opponent or with the incentive to stay in or be promoted to division 1 where those same prizes are bigger.
In Division 1 then the big question is how many points do you need to stay up? In the Premier League proper '40 points' is often quoted as the magical total that sides need to reach in order to avoid the drop (although I think it'll be much lower this season) but it's worth remembering that in the Hive FPL, the bottom 5 teams will be relegated.
It's therefore looking much more likely that 50 points or about 16 wins will be the minimum that sides will need to achieve to stay in the top flight.
No one has yet reached that mark but baring a very dramatic loss of form it seems unlikely that any of the current top half of the league will fail to get there. Instead, it looks more feasable to assume that the 9 lowest ranked teams are the ones who are still in a relegation battle.
No doubt over the next couple of months that number will be trimmed down as 1 or 2 teams pull away from danger or indeed 1 or 2 sides get cut adrift at the bottom.
Challenging to take their places in Division 1 are a whole host of teams whose form in the 2nd half of the season will define whether they are successful in achieving their goal.
90 points would almost certainly guarantee a place in Division 1 but given the competitive nature of the league at the moment anything around the 80 point mark (26/27 wins) might ultimately be enough.
With so few draws (only 16 all season across both divisions) it also means that total score which is the initial tie breaker for teams on the same number of points in the league, will be incredibly important come the final reckoning. As you can see in the table below, the 4 teams currently challenging for the final promotion spot are all locked on 39 points.
Bearing in mind that Division 2 has 46 teams competing in it, it looks likely that anyone in the current top 20 could still make a play for promotion. In fact, the league is so tight at the moment that only 3 points separate 5th and 15th so it really is all to play for!
Consistency is King (at least for most)
The stats below show which sides are consistently beating the game week average and the win % achieved by each side when scoring above and below the average.
It won't come as any great surprise to see the sides challenging towards the top of the table are the ones who are consistently hitting above average scores.
The stats for Division 1 show that you're 3 times more likely to win a head to head fixture if you make an above average score in a GW than either a par or below par score.
| Team | Hive account | Above Average GWs | Above Ave Wins | Win % when above average | Below Ave Wins | Win % when below average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungry Lions | @GvKanten | 18 | 11 | 61.1111111111111 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamzy FC | @shamzy | 18 | 13 | 72.2222222222222 | 1 | 50 |
| Espada Numero Uno | @elmose | 15 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
| Likodra FC | @teofilex11 | 14 | 8 | 57.1428571428571 | 3 | 50 |
| thoth442FC | @thoth442 | 14 | 8 | 57.1428571428571 | 3 | 50 |
| YAGMAN FC | @yagman01 | 13 | 8 | 61.5384615384615 | 1 | 14.2857142857143 |
| Creekside FC | @pappyelblanco | 13 | 10 | 76.9230769230769 | 3 | 42.8571428571429 |
| FC McKane | @McKane | 13 | 10 | 76.9230769230769 | 1 | 14.2857142857143 |
| Nonz FC | @nonsowrites | 12 | 9 | 75 | 2 | 25 |
| WhyteFC | @Ipalibo | 12 | 10 | 83.3333333333333 | 2 | 25 |
| Lazz | @Martinlazizi | 12 | 10 | 83.3333333333333 | 3 | 37.5 |
| Hiveheadz | @borran | 12 | 9 | 75 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Augment Fc | @vickoly | 11 | 9 | 81.8181818181818 | 2 | 22.2222222222222 |
| Legion Fc | @b0s | 11 | 6 | 54.5454545454545 | 2 | 22.2222222222222 |
| I Feel Qatari | @deniskj | 11 | 5 | 45.4545454545455 | 2 | 22.2222222222222 |
| Izanagi FC | @belemo | 11 | 6 | 54.5454545454545 | 2 | 22.2222222222222 |
| @BlockchainFPL | @blockchainFPL | 9 | 4 | 44.4444444444444 | 3 | 27.2727272727273 |
| The Amirians | @amirtheawesome1 | 9 | 5 | 55.5555555555556 | 0 | 0 |
| Suffragette City | @talesfrmthecrypt | 9 | 6 | 66.6666666666667 | 1 | 9.09090909090909 |
| Content Creators | @Pvmihalache | 7 | 4 | 57.1428571428571 | 3 | 23.0769230769231 |
| Total | 244 | 160 | 65.5737704918033 | 35 | 22.4358974358974 |
There are however a couple of statistical anomalies worth considering. Espada Numero Uno for example have until recently found themselves firmly in the relegation zone (they only moved out of it following their win in GW20) but they've achieved an above average score in 75% of their game weeks this season, a record only bettered by 2 teams including Shamzy FC who are the run away leaders.
By contrast, 2nd placed Creekside FC have failed to get an above average score in 7 out the 20 GWs completed (35%) but have managed to maintain a good win % when they do get an above average score (77%) as well as a good win % when they don't (43%).
It's a similar story in Division 2 albeit that here sides are more likely to win if they do get an above average score probably due to the fact that fewer teams in the 2nd flight are achieving that mark on a weekly basis. At the same time, the number of wins from below average scores is greater than in Division 1 suggesting that the split between Division 1 and Division 2 does show a difference in the quality of teams.
| Team | Hive account | Above Average GWs | Above Ave Wins | Win % when above average | Below Ave Wins | Win % when below average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahuzah | @yahuzah | 16 | 12 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| Formidable Milano | @Damolexy | 15 | 12 | 80 | 3 | 60 |
| The inferno Squad | @jimah1k | 15 | 12 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| Skander TN | @skanderh | 15 | 15 | 100 | 3 | 60 |
| racibo | @racibo | 14 | 12 | 85.7142857142857 | 0 | 0 |
| HighWay2Anfield | @kenechukwu97 | 13 | 12 | 92.3076923076923 | 1 | 14.2857142857143 |
| Smiley Team | @carita-feliz | 13 | 11 | 84.6153846153846 | 2 | 28.5714285714286 |
| HappyBoys FC | @Happyboy1 | 13 | 11 | 84.6153846153846 | 2 | 28.5714285714286 |
| Stevelight (Herbae) | @Herbae | 13 | 6 | 46.1538461538462 | 4 | 57.1428571428571 |
| Samostically | @samostically | 12 | 10 | 83.3333333333333 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Unbothered | @Dapomolaaaa | 12 | 8 | 66.6666666666667 | 2 | 25 |
| Tequeños United | @aaalviarez | 12 | 9 | 75 | 4 | 50 |
| Testing FC | @sperosamuel15 | 12 | 9 | 75 | 5 | 62.5 |
| George Of D Jungle | @George-dee | 12 | 8 | 66.6666666666667 | 1 | 12.5 |
| SOLAT | @reservedsingle | 12 | 8 | 66.6666666666667 | 4 | 50 |
| Stom FC | @stomade | 11 | 5 | 45.4545454545455 | 3 | 33.3333333333333 |
| rubilu | @rubilu | 11 | 9 | 81.8181818181818 | 1 | 11.1111111111111 |
| Praiz Empire | @praizking | 11 | 9 | 81.8181818181818 | 3 | 33.3333333333333 |
| Hivetastic | @acidyo | 11 | 7 | 63.6363636363636 | 5 | 55.5555555555556 |
| RHYDA1 | @rhyda1 | 10 | 6 | 60 | 2 | 20 |
| Folox fc | @thelonegreywolf | 10 | 8 | 80 | 1 | 10 |
| The Beast | @iamchuks | 10 | 10 | 100 | 4 | 40 |
| Diistroyers | @diikaan | 10 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
| valchiz fc | @valchiz | 10 | 7 | 70 | 1 | 10 |
| Mount Everest | @khaleesii | 10 | 8 | 80 | 2 | 20 |
| Uwabbs Fc | @uwabbs001 | 10 | 7 | 70 | 5 | 50 |
| Apples and Pears | @stuartcturnbull | 9 | 7 | 77.7777777777778 | 0 | 0 |
| Beyond Horizon | @beyondhorizonmm | 9 | 9 | 100 | 1 | 9.09090909090909 |
| Simcard fpl | @akomoajong | 9 | 7 | 77.7777777777778 | 4 | 36.3636363636364 |
| Lens world fc | @Lensworld | 9 | 7 | 77.7777777777778 | 0 | 0 |
| Tengo Rangers FC | @tengolotodo | 9 | 8 | 88.8888888888889 | 1 | 9.09090909090909 |
| MUFC | @tiyumtaba | 9 | 6 | 66.6666666666667 | 4 | 36.3636363636364 |
| Roboski | @Gentleshaid | 8 | 6 | 75 | 3 | 25 |
| Rosh FC | @officialrosh1 | 8 | 6 | 75 | 3 | 25 |
| EVIAN CF | @nasfyneboy92 | 8 | 5 | 62.5 | 2 | 16.6666666666667 |
| Twycejoy | @twicejoy | 7 | 4 | 57.1428571428571 | 2 | 15.3846153846154 |
| BLAngechys Matildas | @blanchy | 7 | 5 | 71.4285714285714 | 5 | 38.4615384615385 |
| abu78 | @abu78 | 7 | 4 | 57.1428571428571 | 3 | 23.0769230769231 |
| legaliza | @legalizabrazil | 6 | 3 | 50 | 4 | 28.5714285714286 |
| adedayoolumide | @adedayoolumide | 5 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 6.66666666666667 |
| Emeka4 | @Emeka4 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 20 |
| Stevenson FC | @stevenson7 | 5 | 5 | 100 | 2 | 13.3333333333333 |
| Satoshi99 | @kraken99 | 4 | 3 | 75 | 4 | 25 |
| Happy Fc | @Happy411 | 3 | 3 | 100 | 3 | 17.6470588235294 |
| Michupa Brasil F.C. | @michupa | 2 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 22.2222222222222 |
| Total | 442 | 330 | 74.6606334841629 | 108 | 25.8373205741627 |
Luck of the draw
Many of the head to head fixtures that take place every week are determined by the performance of just 1 or 2 differentials across each squad. While there is an element of luck to success in FPL more generally, that is only increased in a head to head league because your chances of winning in any given week are directly impacted by which team you are drawn against!
The final table then attempts to show which teams have been luckier with the opposition they are drawn against by considering a team's relative rank in every game week. For example, if your points total for a single game week was ranked 5th in Division 1, it means that you would have beaten 15 out of the 19 other teams had you have been drawn against them but perhaps you were unlucky enough to be drawn against one of the four sides that did out perform you!
Key
Ranking points - Points awarded for being ranked highest in your division for a GW. In Division 1 being the top ranked team in a GW you will be awarded 20 points, decreasing 1 point per rank. Division 2 being the top ranked team in a GW you will be awarded 46 points, decreasing 1 point per rank.
Rank v League position - The difference between your league position in the H2H and your total ranking points. A minus figure here suggests you've been 'unlucky' with the teams you've been drawn against during the season.
Top quarter rankings - The number of GWs your team has been ranked in the top quarter of points scorers within the Division. For Division 1 that means being in the top 5 while for Division 2 I've taken it to be the top 11.
| Team | Hive account | Total ranking points | League position | Rank v League position | Top quarter rankings | Failed to win when ranked in top quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamzy FC | @shamzy | 287 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 |
| Hungry Lions | @GvKanten | 270 | 6 | -4 | 11 | 1 |
| Creekside FC | @pappyelblanco | 262 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Likodra FC | @teofilex11 | 228 | 8 | -2 | 7 | 0 |
| YAGMAN FC | @yagman01 | 224 | 12 | -5 | 7 | 1 |
| FC McKane | @McKane | 232 | 7 | -3 | 6 | 0 |
| Suffragette City | @talesfrmthecrypt | 188 | 17 | -2 | 6 | 2 |
| thoth442FC | @thoth442 | 222 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 0 |
| WhyteFC | @Ipalibo | 220 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Nonz FC | @nonsowrites | 207 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Lazz | @Martinlazizi | 205 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| I Feel Qatari | @deniskj | 195 | 16 | -2 | 4 | 1 |
| Augment Fc | @vickoly | 186 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Legion Fc | @b0s | 184 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Espada Numero Uno | @elmose | 231 | 13 | -8 | 3 | 0 |
| Hiveheadz | @borran | 209 | 11 | -1 | 3 | 0 |
| The Amirians | @amirtheawesome1 | 165 | 20 | -2 | 3 | 1 |
| @BlockchainFPL | @blockchainFPL | 144 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Izanagi FC | @belemo | 203 | 14 | -1 | 2 | 0 |
| Content Creators | @Pvmihalache | 138 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
.
Observers will notice that I've gone to extraordinary lengths to find a stat that proves my own team, Suffragette City, is the unluckiest in Division 1 being the only side to fail to win more than once when ranked in the top 5.
| Team | Hive account | Total ranking points | League position | Rank v League position | Top quarter rankings | Failed to win when ranked in top quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skander TN | @skanderh | 693 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| The inferno Squad | @jimah1k | 602 | 10 | -8 | 10 | 1 |
| HighWay2Anfield | @kenechukwu97 | 575 | 6 | -3 | 9 | 1 |
| Formidable Milano | @Damolexy | 598 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| racibo | @racibo | 586 | 11 | -6 | 8 | 0 |
| Uwabbs Fc | @uwabbs001 | 552 | 12 | -6 | 8 | 2 |
| Hivetastic | @acidyo | 591 | 9 | -2 | 7 | 1 |
| Testing FC | @sperosamuel15 | 576 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Smiley Team | @carita-feliz | 534 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| rubilu | @rubilu | 534 | 21 | -11 | 7 | 0 |
| valchiz fc | @valchiz | 506 | 32 | -21 | 7 | 0 |
| HappyBoys FC | @Happyboy1 | 584 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| Stevelight (Herbae) | @Herbae | 561 | 19 | -6 | 6 | 2 |
| Mount Everest | @khaleesii | 550 | 22 | -8 | 6 | 0 |
| Unbothered | @Dapomolaaaa | 484 | 23 | -8 | 6 | 0 |
| Samostically | @samostically | 472 | 17 | -1 | 6 | 0 |
| Apples and Pears | @stuartcturnbull | 460 | 35 | -18 | 6 | 2 |
| George Of D Jungle | @George-dee | 533 | 27 | -9 | 5 | 1 |
| SOLAT | @reservedsingle | 520 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| The Beast | @iamchuks | 493 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 0 |
| Praiz Empire | @praizking | 492 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| Tengo Rangers FC | @tengolotodo | 470 | 26 | -4 | 5 | 0 |
| Folox fc | @thelonegreywolf | 454 | 29 | -6 | 5 | 0 |
| BLAngechys Matildas | @blanchy | 452 | 25 | -1 | 5 | 1 |
| Yahuzah | @yahuzah | 553 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 0 |
| Tequeños United | @aaalviarez | 503 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 0 |
| Beyond Horizon | @beyondhorizonmm | 457 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| RHYDA1 | @rhyda1 | 446 | 31 | -3 | 4 | 0 |
| Lens world fc | @Lensworld | 441 | 36 | -7 | 4 | 0 |
| EVIAN CF | @nasfyneboy92 | 430 | 34 | -4 | 4 | 1 |
| Rosh FC | @officialrosh1 | 394 | 30 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Stevenson FC | @stevenson7 | 361 | 38 | -6 | 4 | 0 |
| Simcard fpl | @akomoajong | 495 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| Roboski | @Gentleshaid | 474 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| MUFC | @tiyumtaba | 452 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0 |
| abu78 | @abu78 | 410 | 37 | -1 | 3 | 2 |
| Happy Fc | @Happy411 | 254 | 43 | -6 | 3 | 0 |
| Stom FC | @stomade | 479 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Diistroyers | @diikaan | 384 | 42 | -3 | 2 | 1 |
| legaliza | @legalizabrazil | 325 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| adedayoolumide | @adedayoolumide | 312 | 46 | -5 | 2 | 1 |
| Michupa Brasil F.C. | @michupa | 211 | 45 | -3 | 2 | 1 |
| Twycejoy | @twicejoy | 367 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Emeka4 | @Emeka4 | 291 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Satoshi99 | @kraken99 | 256 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Average | average | 453 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
It's a similar story in Division 2 where several sides can count themselves unfortunate not to have won more head to head matches based on their rankings within a game week and the number of times they've finished in the top 11 during a GW.
However, it also shows that several of the teams currently chasing promotion, including The Beast and Tequeños United are performing well above expectations. The former currently lie 4th in the league with 14 wins despite having only been one of the top performers in 5 out the 20 GWs so far completed.
We wait to see whether the luck of these teams will hold out for the remainder of the season or whether the stats will eventually catch-up with them!
Day by Day, it gets harder to get to the top
The point differences are getting bigger and minor mistakes are punished severely 😂
I nearly cried last GW when I took a hit and went for Sterling ahead of Palmer only to see the lineup and he wasn't there😂😂
I guess those are the things that makes FPL fun... You regret over your mistakes and you look for remedy struggling like a real manager, hehe
Ouch! That's got to hurt
Yeah we've all been there and those little things make a big difference in the head to head fixtures
!BEER
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BEER.That's interesting... I have the lowest win percentage in the league when achieving an above average score... I'm not sure what to make of that.
If you look at that stat in combination with the other table, it means your above average scores aren't usually much above average (I’ve got the raw data if you really want specifics)
You’ve had 3 really good GWs where you’d expect to win
A further 6 decent GWs where you’ve got a chance of winning
And 11 GWs where you’ve underperformed and would be lucky to win
!BEER
It's not my underperformance - it's all the player's fault. Predominantly my Man Utd players which I've finally managed to remove. I think I've held Fernandes in the region of 11 Gameweeks this season.
You want to be careful blaming everything on the United players, they’ll be lining you up as their next manager with that kind of attitude
I'd take a hard line on any ill discipline. Jim Ratcliffe is a God. I'm the perfect man. Ratface OUT. Maguire Captain.
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