Bitcoin hit $69k USD in 2021, fell to $15k in 2022, then gradually climbed to $40k again recently. But during February 2024 the price has surged to well over $60k, putting it within striking distance of the all-time high. Now in just the last couple days, the price has been ranging between $61k and $63k, refusing to correct in any meaningful way. As it edges closer toward breaking out, the crypto world is watching with eager anticipation to find out... is Bitcoin about to test the all-time high?
Short answer: Yes.
Yes, it does seem that's what will happen next.
I'm a bit surprised. I've accurately predicted the macro price action almost perfectly, though I've always seen a test of $69k coming in late 2024. But maybe it's coming NOW? Have a look at the hourly chart:
Classic bullish pattern (triangle, flag, etc) which appears to be coming toward a decision point. Break out, or correct?
Bias is to the upside, considering the runup over the past weeks and months, using the daily chart:
So it looks like there could be a breakout toward $69k coming in the next few days. How would that look on the weekly chart?
Oh my, it really looks as though that's coming to another decision point. And the bias is still to the upside, the pattern having been in play since 2010.
Reminder: The 4 year cycle
Driven by the halving events every 4 years, Bitcoin's price has had a predictable course since it was created in 2009.
Year A: Surge up to a new all-time high.
Year B: Correct about 50% and find support.
Year C: Sideways consolidation.
Year D: Increase to retest previous high.
We're early in "Year D" right now. So what I could definitely see happening is some kind of correction. Either here, or after a rejection around $69k. That would set up another run at it, later in 2024, followed by a spike to a new high in 2025 ("Year A"). It could look something like this:
There could instead be a deeper pullback, to 50k or even 40k, with the long-term trend remaining intact.
Conclusion
BTC is due to test (and break) the old high sometime this year, if the pattern continues. We're only $5k from there right now, and could easily close the gap in a couple days, but a proper correction first would make sense, setting up a stronger test of $69k sometime in the next several months.
Happy crypto dreaming : ))
DRutter
One of the big mistakes everyone is making is comparing the current run to 2021.
2021 was relatively a very poor performing bull market on 4-year cycle standards.
In order to be on pair with 2017 or 2013 we should have peaked around $250k.
So now we have a lot of catching up to do.
I'm starting to think that $250k level is where we will be at the end of this year.
And that's before the real bull market even starts.
Many will be calling for an end to the bull market early at this level.
As this is the top target many are espousing.
They gonna get wrecked.