Welcome to my Monday Morning Quarterback post for Super Divisional Weekend. Of course it's not really called "super", but I added the adjective because all four games were decided on the very last play. Four games that came down to the wire sure beat the hell out of all the blowouts we witnessed last week.
Wow, what a weekend for football! The NFL couldn't have asked for anything better. After going a perfect 6-0 with my picks on Wild Card Weekend, I dropped to 1-3 for the divisional round. That is why I make these picks here and not with sports books. I just couldn't see both #1 seeds going one and done. That is why they play the games.
Just remember I am a Dallas Cowboys fan and I'm extremely biased. Feel free to agree or disagree with anything mentioned here. All comments are welcome.
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Bengals 19 Titans 16
It was somewhat of a miraculous season for the Tennessee Titans. Despite setting an NFL record for the most number of players used on the roster for the season due to numerous injuries, the Titans persevered to claim the top seed in the AFC. Their reward was a home game against the upstart Cincinnati Bengals. The problem for the Titans was that the Bengals don’t fear anybody.
Tennessee received the game’s opening kickoff and Ryan Tannehill was picked off by Cincy on the Titan’s first play. An ominous start for sure. Despite good field position, the Bengals had to settle for a field goal and an early 3-0 lead.
The Bengals led 6-0 early in the 2nd quarter before Tennessee did anything on offense. Then Tannehill kickstarted a drive with a 41 yard pass to A.J. Brown. The Titans drove into the red zone and Derrick Henry finished the drive with a 3 yard TD run. The Bengals had 12 men on the field, so Tennessee used the penalty to try to convert a two-point play from the 1-yard line. Cincinnati stuffed Henry on the attempt and the score was knotted at 6-6.
The Bengals tacked on another field goal before the break and took a 9-6 lead into halftime. It was a weird half for Cincy’s offense. Burrow was hitting a lot of throws, but he was also taking a lot of sacks. His passes put them into position to score, but the sacks kept the Bengals out of the end zone.
The Bengals received the ball first in the second half and started running the ball, something they failed to do in the first half. The drive culminated in a Joe Mixon 16 yard TD run that put the Bengals up 13-6. Tennessee took possession and a 45 yard run by D’Onta Foreman set the Titans up on the Bengals 9-yard line. Yet the Titans failed to score when Ryan Tannehill was intercepted for the second time.
The Titans came back to kick a field goal with their next possession and then the defense made a big play by picking off Joe Burrow. Now with the ball in Cincinnati territory again, Tannehill hit A.J. Brown with a 33 yard TD pass. At the end of the 3rd quarter the game was tied once again at 13-13.
The defenses stepped up in the 4th quarter as both teams struggled to move the ball. With about 7 minutes left, Tennessee drove into Bengal’s territory and faced a 4th and 1 on Cincy’s 35 yard line. Instead of trying a 53 yard field goal attempt, the Titans went for it. The Bengals stonewalled Derrick Henry and took over on downs. The Bengals moved the ball to midfield, but another sack of Joe Burrow on 3rd down forced them to punt.
Tennessee got the ball back with 2 minutes to go to try to pull out the win. The Bengals had other ideas as they picked off Tannehill for the 3rd time:
Joe Burrow hit Ja’Marr Chase with a 19 yard pass to move the Bengals into field goal range and after bleeding the clock Evan McPherson hit a 52 yard game winning kick as time expired.
What a great game to kick off the weekend. Joe Burrow (28/37, 348 yards, 1 INT) threw for a lot of yards despite being under heavy pressure all afternoon. The Titans sacked him 9 times, which is why the Bengals had to settle for so many field goals. Ja’Marr Chase (5 receptions, 109 yards) and Tee Higgins (7 receptions, 96 yards) were open when Burrow had enough time to find them. Joe Mixon (14 rushes, 54 yards, 1 TD) came back to have a decent game after nearly being shut out in the first half.
The defense contained Derrick Henry and intercepted Tannehill three times. Those turnovers were crucial to the Bengals victory. Despite being around since 1968, this was the Bengals first ever playoff win on the road. They had been 0-7 previously. Wow. The Bengals will move on to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 1988.
Ryan Tannehill started the game with an interception and finished the game with an interception. Unfortunately for the Titans Tannehill (15/24, 220 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs) wasn’t that great in between those turnovers. The only time he had success throwing the ball was when he targeted A.J. Brown (5 receptions, 142 yards, 1 TD). Derrick Henry (20 rushes, 62 yards, 1 TD) looked rusty in his return.
The Titans defense played well, holding the high scoring Bengals to 19 points and sacking Burrow 9 times. The defense’s interception of Burrow set up a game-tying score. But in the end it wasn’t enough as the offense struggled most of the day. Crazy stat: This was the 3rd time in franchise history the Titans held the #1 seed in the AFC and they have gone one and done all three times.
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49ers 13 Packers 10
When it comes to the NFL offense and defense get all the attention. Nobody hardly talks about the third component of every franchise: special teams. The Green Bay Packers had been excellent on offense and defense for most of the year. Their special teams stunk. That fact came back to bite them hard in the ass in the Divisional round.
Green Bay received the opening kickoff and Aaron Rodgers went right to work. He drove the Packers right down the field with passes to Devante Adams and Aaron Jones. Once the Packers made it to the 49ers 11-yard line, all they needed was two rushes by A.J. Dillon to push the ball across the goal line. Green Bay took an early 7-0 lead. I hope you didn’t tune in late and miss it, it was the one and only TD scored by offense in the entire game.
From then on the defenses took over. The Packers could move the ball a little, the 49ers hardly at all. Late in the second quarter San Francisco finally put a drive together. They made it as far as the Packer’s 9-yard line before Jimmy Garoppolo was intercepted by Adrian Amos. Green Bay had barely a minute left in the half to try to squeeze in another score. Rodgers hit Aaron Jones with a 75 yard bomb to set the Packers up deep in San Francisco territory. After taking a sack, Rodgers spiked the ball with seconds left to stop the clock. Mason Crosby came onto the field to kick a 39-yard field goal, but his kick was blocked. It was the Packers first, but not last, huge mistake on special teams. Green Bay led 7-0 at halftime.
San Francisco got the ball first to begin the second half. With a few runs and pass receptions by Deebo Samuel they made it into the red zone for the second time of the game. However the drive stalled there and Robbie Gould kicked a field goal to finally get the 49ers on the board. The defenses took over again as that was the end of scoring in the 3rd quarter.
The Packers finally started to move the ball again on offense to start the 4th quarter. They made it as far as the San Francisco 5-yard line, but a penalty and a sack stopped their drive. Mason Crosby kicked a field goal and Green Bay increased their lead to 10-3 with 11 minutes left in the game.
The 49ers responded with a few nice runs and a 24 yard pass to George Kittle to move into Green Bay territory. They made it down to the 19-yard line, where they faced a 4th and one. Still down by a TD with 6 minutes left on the clock, San Francisco bypassed a field goal attempt and went for it. The Packers stuffed the run and took over possession. The Packers could have finished the game off with a score, but lost yardage instead with another sack of Aaron Rodgers. Facing a 4th and 19, the Packers had to punt from their own 12-yard line. It didn’t go well:
All of a sudden we had a tie game at 10-10. Crazy. Yet there was still plenty of time left for Green Bay to retake the lead. Except with their next possession, the Packers couldn’t even get a first down. They punted back to the Niners, who got the ball on their own 29-yard line with three minutes left to play. Garoppolo hit Kittle and Samuel with passes to move the ball to midfield. With Green Bay out of timeouts, the Niners used the run to push the ball into field goal range and chew up the clock. Robbie Gould hit a game winning 45 yard field goal as time expired to give the 49ers the upset victory.
What a wild finish to a mostly boring game. The Niners were able to pull off the upset despite the fact that their offense couldn’t score a single TD. That’s because their defense and special teams were stupendous. Holding the Packers to 10 points at home doesn’t happen very often. Yet after giving up that initial TD drive, the Niners clamped down and suffocated the Pack, sacking Rodgers 5 times.
Jimmy Garoppolo (11/19, 131 yards, 1 INT) wasn’t good, but did hit a couple of key throws during the game winning drive. George Kittle (4 receptions, 63 yards) and Deebo Samuel (3 receptions for 44 yards and 10 carries for 39 yards) gained most of the yards on offense. They were the last team in the NFC to qualify for the playoffs, but the 49ers are headed to the NFC title game.
The Packers were clearly the best overall team in the NFC this season. Yet they laid an egg and went one and done for the playoffs, wasting home field advantage. Brutal loss for Green Bay. The defense was good, but the offense was surprisingly quiet and the special teams were awful. A blocked field goal attempt and a blocked punt created a 10 point swing, making a 3 point loss especially stinging.
Aaron Rodgers (20/29, 225 yards) didn’t find much success after the Packers opening TD drive. Davante Adams (9 receptions, 90 yards) and Aaron Jones (9 receptions, 129 yards) were his top targets. Take away the 75 yard pass from Rodgers to Jones, which didn’t end up with the Packers scoring any points, and those numbers look rather bleak. It is going to be a long winter in Green Bay.
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Rams 30 Buccaneers 27
Both of these teams entered the 2021 season loaded for a deep playoff run. In some sort of salary cap magic, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to retain nearly their entire squad that won last year’s Super Bowl. The Rams mortgaged the team’s future by using draft capital to trade for Matthews Stafford and Von Miller while signing Odell Beckham during the season. It was Super Bowl or bust for both teams, but only one could move on to the NFC title game.
Early on it looked like the Rams would advance with ease. They scored on four of their first five possessions to take a 20-3 lead late in the 2nd quarter. Tampa tried to squeeze in another score before the half ended, but Tom Brady was intercepted and the Rams took over on the Bucs 31-yard line. The Rams had a golden opportunity to increase their lead, but Cam Akers fumbled the ball on the 1-yard line. The Rams led 20-3 at the break, but you just had a feeling that missed opportunity would come back to haunt them.
The second half began with a couple of punts before Matthew Stafford led another scoring drive that he finished off with a sneak into the end zone. With seven minutes left in the 3rd quarter Los Angeles led 27-3. Game over right? Well not quite. Tom Brady was still on the other side of the field and the Rams began to crack under pressure.
The Buccaneers kicked a field goal and then Cooper Kupp, who hadn’t fumbled all season, fumbled the ball back to Tampa Bay. The Bucs got possession on the Rams 30-yard line and took full advantage of the short field when Leonard Fournette crossed the goal line for a TD. By the end of the 3rd quarter Tampa had cut their deficit to 27-13.
The 4th quarter was insane. The Rams led off the period with a punt. On Tampa’s first offensive play Von Miller strip sacked Brady and the Rams took over on the Tampa 25-yard line. In position to put the game away for good, the Rams botched a snap and the Buccaneers recovered the ball near midfield. Despite the premium field position, the Bucs turned the ball over on downs.
With another chance to ice the game, the Rams drove into the Buc’s territory. The drive stalled on the 29-yard line and kicker Matt Gay missed a 47 yard field goal attempt. Still alive, Tampa drove the ball onto the Rams side of the field again but turned the ball over downs for the second straight possession.
With a little over four minutes left in regulation, the Rams had the ball and a two TD lead. They tried to bleed the clock, but couldn’t even get one first down. The Rams had to punt and Tom Brady found Mike Evans with a 55 yard TD bomb to cut the Rams lead to 27-20. The Rams got the ball back with three minutes left and a one TD lead. A few first downs would have killed the clock, but Cam Akers fumbled the ball again. The turnover gave Tampa the ball on the Rams 30-yard line.
The Bucs weren’t going to waste this opportunity. Facing a 4th and 1 on the 9-yard line, Leonard Fournette ran around the end and crossed the goal line. The extra-point was good and the Rams massive 24 point lead was officially blown as the game was tied 27-27.
The shell shocked Rams got the ball back on their 25-yard line with less than a minute left on the clock. Overtime was looming, but Mathew Stafford wasn’t having it. After taking a sack, he found Cooper Kupp with a 20 yard pass to get the ball to midfield. With time winding down this happened:
Oh man did Tampa Bay blow it. They called a blitz, but messed up the coverage. The defense left the #1 receiver in the league wide open. Matt Gay kicked the field goal to give the Rams a 30-27 win and a trip to the NFC title game.
Wow. Hard to believe that Tampa would practically give the game away after making such an epic comeback to tie the score. Matthew Stafford (28/38, 366 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rushing TD) had a great game and looks like he has successfully shed the stink of Detroit. Cooper Kupp (9 receptions, 183 yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble) redeemed his earlier fumble with late game heroics.
Cam Akers (24 rushes, 48 yards, 2 fumbles) could have been the goat with his two fumbles, but his teammates bailed him out. Defensively Los Angeles kept the heat on Tom Brady for most of the game, but they started to fall apart some in the 4th quarter. Los Angeles should have won this game with ease, but their four fumbles let the Bucs hang around.
Another amazing Tom Brady comeback was wasted by a defense that fell apart in the final 30 seconds. Brady (30/54, 329 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had to ball out after the Bucs fell behind big. He relied on Mike Evans (8 receptions, 119 yards, 1 TD) and Rob Gronkowski (4 receptions, 85 yards) to get the team back into the game. Leonard Fournette (13 rushes, 51 yards, 2 TDs) handled all of the ground duties.
Well my dream of a Tom Brady free Super Bowl was nearly shattered, but in the end it came true. Yay! Now the big question facing Tampa Bay this offseason is will Tom retire or will he come back to take another shot at glory.
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Chiefs 42 Bills 36 OT
Heading into the 2021 season I think it is safe to say most everyone thought that the AFC championship would be decided by a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. While both teams stumbled a little during the regular season, they both entered the playoffs playing at their best and a confrontation was inevitable.
As much as I often complain that quarterbacks get too much credit or blame, this game was truly a battle between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. It was like a classic Muhammad Ali/Joe Frazier heavyweight battle, each combatant landing blow after blow without stopping. Neither man was to be denied, only sudden death overtime rules could finish this game. It was truly a matter of who had the ball last.
This game was a back and forth affair all night. Jumping right to the 4th quarter, the Chiefs held a slim 23-21 lead. Kansas City returned a punt to the Bills 16-yard line and it looked like they might put the game away since a TD would give them a two score lead. However, for the final time of the night, the Buffalo defense stood strong and held the Chiefs to a field goal. KC led 26-21 with nine minutes left in regulation.
Buffalo took possession and Josh Allen took over. Using a mix of runs and passes, the Bills marched down the field while taking precious time of the clock. The drive ended with a 27 yard TD pass from Josh Allen to Gabriel Davis. The Bills went for two and converted. With exactly two minutes left on the clock the Bills led 29-26.
The Chiefs had that little time left to either tie the game or go ahead again. Turns out they didn’t even need a minute:
That TD pass to Tyreek Hill gave the Chiefs a 33-29 lead with 1:02 left in regulation. Buffalo got the ball back on their own 25-yard line needing a TD. Josh Allen was up to the challenge. He connected on four passes, with the final one being a 19 yard TD pass to Gabriel Davis. The extra point was good and the Bills led 36-33 with only 13 seconds left on the clock.
Surely the game was over, right? Nope. The Bills kicked off and the ball soared out of the end zone for a touchback. That was a mistake and everyone was calling Buffalo out for it after the game. The general thought is they should have squibbed the kick or instead kicked a high arching shot that landed before the end zone so the Chiefs would have to field the ball and use up some precious seconds. Instead the Chiefs got the ball on their own 25-yard line without losing a single second.
Mahomes found Tyreek Hill with a 19 yard pass to move the ball to midfield and then found Travis Kelce with a 25 yard pass to move into field goal range. Harrison Butker kicked a 49 yard field goal as time expired and this heavyweight bout was headed to overtime.
All the drama was now centered around the coin toss. A TD would end the game and with both defenses absolutely gassed there was little doubt whoever got possession first would win the game. The Chiefs won the toss and took the ball. Patrick Mahomes guided the Chiefs dwon the field and finished the game off with an 8-yard TD pass to Kelce. Kansas City won 42-36 in overtime without letting Josh Allen have another crack at the ball.
What a game! I love a good defensive battle, but watching Mahomes and Allen go back and forth landing haymaker after haymaker down to the end was exciting football for sure. Fans are complaining that Buffalo never had a chance in overtime and while that was disappointing, that is how the rules work. The same situation bit KC in the ass several years ago in the AFC championship game against the Patriots. This time the rule worked in their favor. Buffalo, who had the league’s #1 defense, had to make a stop in overtime, or at least hold KC to a field goal, and they couldn’t do it.
Patrick Mahomes was sensational in the air (33/44, 378 yards, 3 TDs) and on the ground (7 rushes, 69 yards, 1 TD). He led the Chiefs in rushing yards. Most of his damage was done with the aid of Tyreek Hill (11 receptions, 150 yards, 1 TD) and Travis Kelce (8 receptions, 96 yards, 1 TD). For the 4th straight season, the Kansas City Chiefs will be hosting the AFC championship game. That alone is quite an accomplishment. No other team in AFC history has hosted more than two in a row.
The Buffalo Bills put up a helluva fight and this loss was certainly a brutal finish to a fine season. Like Mahomes, Josh Allen was also spectacular in the air (27/37, 329 yards, 4 TDs) and on the ground (11 rushes, 68 yards). He also led his team in rushing yards. Allen threw all of his TD passes to Gabriel Davis (8 receptions, 201 yards, 4 TDs), who was phenomenal. The Bills will have to regroup in the offseason and prepare for that next inevitable show down with the Chiefs.
Now the conference championship games are set. We have the Bengals facing off against the Chiefs in Kansas City for the AFC and the 49ers facing off against the Rams in Los Angeles for the NFC. Not the final four I'm sure most people were expecting to see, but all four teams have earned their shot.
I'll be rooting hard for the Bengals since they are my brother's favorite team and that poor bastard has suffered long enough. Yet I can't see the Chiefs being denied a third straight Super Bowl appearance.
The 49ers have defeated the Rams seven straight times. Woof. Can the Rams finally get over San Francisco? I think they will and Mathews Stafford will finally make the big game.
So there is my Super Bowl prediction: Chiefs vs. Rams. Thanks for reading feel free to leave a Super Bowl prediction below. Or any other comment that strikes your fancy. I'm easy.
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