It's still unknown how the Russian public will react and what they can do if conditions get really dire. I was told some debit and credit cards have stopped working while other still work just fine. My brother-in-law is an automation engineer working for a German company. He was told his employment is not in danger. He's working remotely and got a raise not so long ago. If his employer pulls out of the country, he might find a job with a company some of his friends founded. Their projects are mostly domestic.
I'm guessing the sanctions will impact the economy in a gradual manner. The government has said it will step in and mitigate the effects on the banking sector. But who knows what will happen in a complex system like an entire national economy.
The mobilization rumor is just that, a rumor. I think Russia still has enough power to finish the job. The losses will be significant, of course.
It is a different generation than the past conflicts and, the infrastructure is different too. I think they are going to struggle in many ways and if they aren't appeased, they will revolt and fall into a fast, downward spiral of division.
Essentially, things are still being handled centrally and as a result, while Moscow might be okay, it will be the outlying points that see the worst localized hardship. Will they just sit and wait to be "saved" by their government? There is a big difference between Russian people and Russian state and I suspect that if given the opportunity, they would oust Putin. This might be that opportunity.
If Ukraine is posing such a problem, how are they expected to march across Europe? I don't think the argument stands up that Europe is next. Move onto EU soil and things change. Well, if they go nuclear - it is WWIII and we are all likely better off not surviving, if we could.
I wonder what would have happened if back when the EU track was open for Ukraine, they had taken it.
If history is any guide, Russians are good at tolerating hardship. Putin has built a pretty powerful police state. Of course, if he is perceived as being crazy or making blunders that are too serious, then it could get difficult.
For Russia to march across Europe, they'd have to mobilize their reserve. As we speak, the economic capacity needed for that is being dismantled and I don't think China would stand for that for a second, so no support from China.
Yeah in history they did tolerate hardship, but the last 30 years after the fall of the USSR has raised a different generation. How many under 30s really want to fight a war, let alone a war against countries they might have traveled to on holiday to go shopping? Countries where they have friends from the Internet in? Does a millennial want to fight for their country?
I think the culture of what those reservists might look like, needs to be considered.
Will head to bed and sleep on it :)