Headline economics news today was that the UK has seen the fastest rate of GDP growth in two years, measured over a three month period, Jan-March 2024.
The GDP growth rate was 0.6% for those three months, meaning that the UK is now officially out of the recession it was in at the end of 2023...
I can't help but thinking this might trigger Rishi to call a General Election. Maybe not immediately but it's probably going to get him thinking about it.
This is literally the only good news the Tories have had this year, and they might reasonably expect growth to continue, even if it is weak, it's better than 0 or negative. And we're probably going to see immigrants being deported en-masse to Rwanda over the coming weeks, another sure vote-winner as the Tories perceive it.
Of course all this is strictly in the heads of Tories... weak economic growth and kicking out would-be asylum seekers are seen as a double header of positive news stories, something of an antidote to the recent drubbing in the mayoral and local elections. A week is a long time in the space of public opinion, after all.
GDP growth as good news = gaslighting the public...?
The only problem with the above is that it's going to be a hard-sell to convince the public that we've turned a corner economically, because the average person won't be feeling the benefits anytime soon.
This is because inflation is still high, so the cost of living is still killing any benefits of GPD growth, that along with population growth meaning it's spread across more people.
In fact the Tories have failed on two out their three economic pledges - they've failed on inflation, they've failed on bringing national debt down, and this GDP growth is the only one where they have succeeded. And in the long-term scheme of things 0.6% is WEAK AF.
For these reasons Angela Rayner goes as far as saying the Tories would be gaslighting the general public if they try and sell a narrative of Britain having turned a corner, because that isn't what people are going to be feeling in their own lived experiences of their economic realities....
Slim chance of things feeling better within the next sixth months...?
I think sometime soon might be the Tories best chance in a GE... People might be more forgiving in summer, when times are easier and bills are lower, and we have these two pieces of good news, albeit flawed if you subject them to any sensible analysis.
There's just so much more that could go wrong in the meantime... interest rates probably aren't gonna come down, more Tories might defect, the Rwanda plan could go pear shaped.
Or maybe they're just hoping for a global crisis so MASSIVE we need martial law, that's probably their best hope, and more realistic than them winning a regular GE!
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Who came up with that asinine idea? Can I presume it’s survived legal challenges only because the UK is no longer part of the EU? Likely abandoned after a Labour win?
You know I'm not sure where it came from, somewhere out of desperation!
It is one of the many many 'advantages' of leaving the EU, along with the toxic ring of sewage around the island.
I can't see Labour getting rid of it, immigration is more of an issue in their areas.
It's a real shit show.
Jonathan Powell proposed it under Labour and Blaire back in 2003, but to Kenya and South Africa. They also proposed leaving the ECHR!
The Rwanda plan isn't actually original to the UK either. Denmark and Israel both used Rwanda for the same purposes, Australia did their equivalent (with great success, it seems), and even the EU had attempted it to Niger.
There were elections here in our country during February and there was so much double-digit voting that the party that won was defeated.