Good point I wasn't thinking about the inflow from other assets into HBD. However that means all that value is being locked up into HBD where it doesn't really benefit the system. In fact I almost see it as a new risk if someone had a wealthy amount of HBD that could take that 20% APR and keep buying up hive at a very lower price and have a massive value of powered up hive to vote witnesses. Would it not present a passive risk factor over time?
Also I'm sure little to no fees that would contribute back into the value of Hive where captured in those transactions. Being that it's a feeless blockchain hive was converted to HBD with zero fee or profit to the value of hive. Perhaps a conversion fee is in order and being that we are paying out 20% APR then paying a 0.25% fee or lower shouldn't be an issue at all and would provide value to the hive token if done correctly.
It always comes down however to the root issue. You can talk about all of this stuff but when it comes down to it hive is looked at as an exit flow of money. You interact and do things on hive to get paid and cash out is the mindset of many and it makes sense the way it's structured and promoted as an article marketing site you get paid to post content on. But there's NOTHING to bring that value or sustain that exit flow of money which is why hive always falls back down in value. Fix that mindset or address that constant exit of value and you fix the issue of hive always being worth so little.
You pay a 5% fee to convert HIVE to HBD. (If you are not buying it from the market.)
HBD doesn't contribute much to Hive's inflation it is only around 2-3% while other sources create an 8% inflation for Hive.
The biggest issue I am seeing is that a ton of hive is getting powered down and those powered down hive is leaving the platform. (They are not getting powered down to get into HBD. At least most of it isn't.)
Last 3 months seen at least -1m stake every month. (Source: Arcange's HIVE Financial Stats)
And one important metric would be who is selling HBD and HIVE. Is it people who are putting HBD into savings, or people who are getting paid in HBD through proposals and writing content.
It is important to determine where this money outflow in the platform is coming from.
It comes from accounts voting rewards to accounts that dump.
This is the only source of hive that isn't first bought.
yeah, it is a big complex structure
we need to work more out and involve game-theory
self-reinforcing circles
(but not circle jerks^^)
I've also often addressed the value out -> Hive value down and people voting out-cashers issue..
while it's been quite hard for myself to reach/ earn my stake..
and also only having cashed out once (I already have been dolphin once) when I became homeless and still had big cramps additional to my permanent pain
about the attack vector/ risk you mentioned, I am unsure..
I think the ecosystem is big enough already to level out/ self-regulate
and we also want outsiders to gain influence
(or is Hive already rigged? and those in power just try to keep it?)
government can and will change
(not always the programmers are the best managers..)