Today was another cryptocurrency market bloodbath, as (last time I checked) Coinmarketcap reported 99 of the top 100 tokens down; most of them by double digits.
Red poppies in the sun
We're all losing our shirts, here! Waaaaah!
Bitcoin recently had a mini rally that gave people a tiny bit of hope that a turnaround was in the making... and has now given back all of its gains. And maybe there's more to come.
Meanwhile, Steem is flirting with the $1.00 level, and my account value is now lower than it has been since the first part of December 2017... and I have added a lot of SP since then!
WTF, over?
Let's just cancel Christmas, pack it all in, and go back to flipping burgers...
But I Thought this Was Going to be the Wave of the Future?!?!
Market cycles are a pretty inevitable part of the investing landscape. Cryptocurrencies are out on the new frontier of "alt investments," so it's natural that we're going to be dealing with volatile markets, here.
Kramer the cat says: "Everything seems upside down!"
I have a sneaking suspicion that today's market activity might signify that we've entered a new phase of the market cycle, known in the greater investment world as "capitulation."
It's what happens when people give up hope that "a market turnaround" is going to ever happen, and the last of the "gamblers and speculators" sell off their holdings at firesale prices, resigned to the reality that they are never going to have their investment "go up 10 TIMES."
So they bail out, and go do something else... like play roulette, or bet on the ponies.
Certain elements are in place to support that idea, including the recent "mini rally" in Bitcoin which gave people a little bit of cautious "false" hope. But with every $100 BTC gained, there was a crowd of people waiting to bail out of their investments, so there was no sustainability there.
So What Now, Kemosabe?
The capitulation stage of an investment market cycle is kind of cool because a lot happens, quite a bit of it psychological.
Maybe we should all just find a place to chill out...
Now I could toss up a bunch of technical charts here and point out that the Jackson-Smith Oscillator curve is doing a backwards Half-Nelson with the Systemic FLIP Indicator... but that would be a load of bullshit.
What we're looking at here is a change of psychology, and that doesn't work well with technical charts.
Instead, I'm going to call on something totally intangible called experience and intuition, as it applies to the underlying sentiment of a crowd.
It might be hard to believe, but "capitulation" is actually a positive signal. Why? Because it's a stage of the cycle where the "gamblers and speculators" tend to leave the market, having been burned once too often in their short term strategies. On the upside, this is where "value investors" start entering the market.
Salmonberry blossoms
Value Investors come in and buy depressed assets with long term appreciation prospects. Solid projects. And they tend to be picky.
As Warren Buffett once observed: "When the tide goes out, you discover who's been swimming naked."
So something like Steem looks pretty good: Super fast blockchain, no or low fee, loads of excess capacity. Very different from "Shitcoin Number 1042" which had an ICO simply because the word "blockchain" appeared 42 times in the White Paper.
The good thing about Value Investors is that they tend to have a "buy-and-hold" approach. They generally don't care what the price of Steem or Bitcoin is doing tomorrow, or next week, or next month. Their time horizon tends to be years.
That can be a positive because it tends to add market stability. Granted, cryptocurrencies is "new territory," but so were "Dot-com stocks," in the years 2001-02.
But it's not a positive if you're a "gambler," only if you're an actual "investor."
Have the Fundamentals Changed?
As the markets try to find the real bottom, and we start scouting for value investors... let's look at whether the fundamentals for Steem (not Steemit) are still valid.
The sun will still set, tomorrow!
Sound technology, super fast blockchain, highly rated by Weiss ratings, lots of excess capacity, functional economy of various apps being added... CHECK.
That already puts us way ahead of the crowd.
And we have a potential "ace in the hole," at least a possible first one... in the form of the @steemmonsters craze.
How so?
SteemMonsters is an external initiative that — if it goes viral on a web level — could bring hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of users in touch with Steem/Steemit. And it is — to my knowledge — one of the very few ways you can get from your fiat debit card directly to Steem without massive fees or going through BTC or an exchange. That's a potential game changer, if people understand how that can work!
Anyway, the fundamentals haven't changed, meaning that Steem would be pretty high up on a Value Investor's shopping list. Just something to think about...
So no, I am NOT giving up, or heading for the hills. But I think that sentiment is thicker now than it has been before.
And that may be a GOOD thing!
How About YOU? What are your thoughts on the current market situation? Are you bailing out? Or settling in for the long haul? DO you believe the fundamentals of the Steem blockchain are still valid, or has something changed? Leave a comment-- share your experiences-- be part of the conversation!
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Created at 180808 23:01 PDT
Great article. Should be upvoted well beyond the current payout. Sad that low quality refuse is sitting above your thoughtful, well-articulated, and insightful piece here.
I am happy if this is true capitulation. Ready for the true believers to take over.
Cheers, @denmarkguy.
Thanks Graham... I guess it's going to earn what it's gonna earn. Which is probably not very much. Because I'm not going to throw $200 at bidbots, so I can pretend I created something hugely worthwhile. But who knows? Never say never... someone with influence might think it's cool and re-steem it.
Whatever. Not attached. I haven't had anything "organically" in Trending since about when HF.19 kicked in.
But appreciate the encouraging words!
Good read. Not having a lot of influence, but I did resteem it :)
Thank you @scandinavianlife, I appreciate the support... as the old saying goes "It all counts."
Great article. We're on one of the few blockchains that is being used by non-technical end-users for its intended purpose. In a world of shitcoins, that's rare. It's far less risk than most early stage coins and represents a massive opportunity. There's still risk, but yeah, good time to dump the shitcoins and rebalance the portfolio for value.
My SP's a bit low, so I tipped you a @steembasic income share. It's a gift that keeps on giving.
Thanks @eturnerx! And I appreciate the SBI share — big fan of the @steembasicincome initiative; good for everyone, but particularly encouraging for newcomers who are struggling to get traction here. That, and @dustsweeper are great things for "everyday" Steemians.
Whether we are truly in the "capitulation" stage, or not, we definitely seem to be in a re-evaluation stage. I think the days where you can just say the word "Blockchain" and people throw $100 bills at you are numbered. Projects need to have more substance than just empty air... and the markets will reorganize and rebound, with a new paradigm of worthless shitcoins becoming worth about... nothing... and solid projects gaining in value.
Steem is an interesting market leader in being not only accessible by non-technical users as you pointed out, but it's also increasingly becoming a "utility coin." There's SteemMonsters; there are more and more economic initiatives working at the retail level ( @steembay, @steemshop ) which means "real people" at street level using the Steem blockchain in some capacity.
Those are things that help create real demand for Steem, not just "speculative" demand. Which creates upwards price pressure. But for that to actually happen, I believe we do need to experience a cycling through the investor class holding Steem... out with the daily gamblers, in with the longer term "holders" who aren't watching daily prices, but ask the question "can I 10x my money in 3 years?" and then otherwise leave it alone.
I have nothing of value to add right now, but I wanted to point out that this was an enjoyable read. And I'm human, not a bot. :)
I appreciate you being a real human, and not a bot. I think we "organics" need to stick together and support each other. So you get a "real human" upvote...
I love the "organics" term. I need to start using that!
Please do! I just invented it because we have so much talk of "bots" around here, and automated voting... so those of us who actually read and type comments as HUMANS? Yeah, we're "Organics."
Let me first start with saying that it is a great post.
I don't have an economical background, so I can't give a technical explanation. I am in doubt. One part of my brain tells me that I can write off the crypto investments as a loss. The other part tells me that we will some great ATH once, maybe not this year or the year after but pretty sure after that!
I was thinking this morning in the car if we can compare the current situation with the dot.com bubble which bursted. If you would have invested in the right companies back then, you are probably not working now anymore.
So, it could go both sides. And probably I will keep on strengthening my position in some coins like Steem, Neblio, Neo, Ehtrereum, Bitcoin, EOS and Stratis.
Time will tell if that was foolish or brilliant!
Cheers,
Peter
Thanks Peter!
As you know, the people who hung onto their shares in things like Yahoo, Amazon, Dell and other large solid "dot com" businesses indeed did very well for themselves.
Although I don't have a crystal ball, it seems to me we may be in a similar phase at the moment... and a lot of the so-called "shitcoins" will go down... and never come back, while solid projects like you listed will bounce back up.
I agree with you about the capitulation. I was reading it elsewhere in a couple of other places, too. @louisthomas I think did a video about analyzing samples of comments on his YouTube videos on crypto. During the ATH there were a lot of pie in the sky people convinced the price would magically never fall again, and any talk of correction was crazy talk! Then during the lows before the recent blip upward, it was full of doom and gloom. It's so very much psychological. I wish I could hodl more and didn't need to sell for rent money, but I'm at least building my Steem Power, which I think is a good investment in my future sustainability!
It is, indeed, a good investment in future sustainability. I very much hope to be able to weather our current downturn in business outside anything to do with cryptos without having to power down any. Had to last year, and that was during the pretty slow times with fairly low Steem... went from over 7000SP to about 2000 before I could afford to stop... it has been tough building it back up.
Ouch, I believe it!
...I just posted a more 'tongue in cheek' perspective of the same topic!
(you nearly made it on the 'interview' list, btw! lol)
https://steemit.com/blog/@lucylin/steemit-crypt-special-oops-steemit-crypto-special-comedyopenmic-25-2nd
hodl! hodl! hodl!
That was a good read... some wet fish slapping on Jerry is definitely a sign of... of... of... wanting to slap Jerry with a wet fish.
Speaking of "making it on the interview list," any idea what happened to Everitt? He suddenly stopped posting... I know he was trying to buy a house, so I'm going to go with the reality that he's been in the throes of moving, rather than something more serious, like a medical event.
I don't know about Everitt matey, - I was thinking the same things...
I hope everything is ok with him.
(Hopefully he is in his new residence, and busy melting any local snowflakes ! lol)
I've actualy been buying the last coupld of days @denmarkguy. Having missed the last two dips I finally took a deep breath and decided not to miss this one.
I had bitcoin sitting there because I'd got that far but I kept waiting for Steem to go down just a bit more. 😂
Keeping blogging is a bit harder when I catch sight of my earnings though. I have a couple of posts worth as low as 0.06c. 😱 That's like when I first joined. So I'm trying not to look!
I had forgotten this so that's a bit of good news at least.
Wishing you a peaceful and prosperous day! 😊
Yeah, it's hard to stay motivated when your posts are barely earning anything. But remember that when the price of Steem is low, even a lower dollar amount on your rewards mean you get more SP. So you'll have more in your account when the prices go back up. Kudo's to you for buying into the weak market... that's generally a wise strategy.
I just hope the diversity of buys and holders is increasing not decreasing. Having just a couple holding the mass of wealth will always become problematic when they want to sell off their holdings.
Myself I’m just holding what little I have everywhere. Can’t afford to risk what I don’t have so I’m not buying either. So many seem to have invested and are now panicking because they can’t afford to have such low prices.
All those daily casher outers are just not thinking in long terms. Granted I can understand some of them can’t afford to but that points to there being other issues going on then just the price of a cryptocurrency.
The thing about low prices in a market like this is that as the prices slide down, more and more risk averse small investors look at this and say "well, I can afford to put $100 at risk on the crypto thing." They probably avoided the rollercoaster ride last year, but now they are more open and looking for an entry point.
Bigger investors are more likely to be gunshy at this point... worried that they might get in and lose even more. They'll more likely get back in when things are already going UP again... and then help everyone else as the catalysts that suddenly drive the price up on really high volume.
That's just speculation, on my behalf, but it "feels" right.
now i am sleeping and again i will awake up soon ..
Maybe I am crazy but I just bought another $50 bucks worth of crypt because the price was so cheap. I'm poor. I can't really afford it but my brain keeps telling me BUY! every time I see a new lower value.
Sure my overall portfolio looks like it got placed in a dehydrater and has shrank to a pee, but I'm holding on, hoping for fertile soil and a nice rain. Soon (a year or two) this will all turn around and then we can jump in the deep water naked.
The thing I remind myself of is that blockchain technology is still highly valid and relevant... that hasn't changed. And here there are lots of great apps being built on the Steem blockchain, which is fast and no fee and nowhere near capacity. Lots of things in its favor. So when things DO turn around, those who hung on during the downturn are going to be really glad that they did so... but the timeframe is longer now; as you say, maybe a couple of years to multiply the investment.
I told myself when I signed up here that I would not put any of my own money into this. With prices sinking this low, though, it sure is tempting for the value trade!
Love Kramer the cat. If reincarnation is real, I hope Jim Kramer comes back as a lazy quiet house cat 😂
Hah! Jim Cramer reincarnated as a housecat... there's an image for you! That would be one of those house cats that just yowls and meows like crazy when you go near the can opener.
Being able to "build stake" without actually having to fork over your own dollars is one of the beauties of this system. But yes, it's tempting to try to make a buy-in as we bump along what I think will soon be a bottom, here.
Very nicely put, I think the market is rife with manipulation and greed and it's no surprise what's happening now but you are right the fundamentals haven't changed.
I would say forget about the money and just consider for a second all the people working on Blockchain and Steem projects. All that has been built in the last few years. This is real added value and something the right type of investor will still be interested in investing in.
Yes, are are a lot of good things happening already! I know STINC wants us all to believe that SMTs are going to be some kind of "magic pill" but I prefer looking at what's already here and being applied. Promises are great, but they don't amount to a hill of beans unless they are actually executed.
I really like Steem Monsters too, because it's an "outside-Steemit" gig as well as an "internal" thing that runs on the Steem Blockchain.
I imagine part of the reason Steem tends to be ranked very highly by Weiss Ratings is also that we have a lot of functional utility, already... most project are long on plans and very short on execution.
I believe that this successive fall in the crypto market only shows that the evil of this market is the centralized exchanges and the model where the one with the most Bitcoin has the power of decision and this takes the character of freedom that is the philosophy behind the crypto crurrencies.
About the price of Steem ... well, I and you know that Steem two years ago was worth $ 0.10. I know it's not a parameter and I think Steem needs some other attraction for people to invest in it.
Big hug!🇧🇷
I know you've been here a long time, too, @jsantana... and I well remember blogging everyday through 10-cent and 7-cent Steem!
As for the value of Steem, there are a lot of projects already developed and running on the Steem blockchain... and I'm particularly excited about Steem Monsters because the gaming industry is HUGE, and this project is designed to be functional outside Steemit.
The centralization issue is a tough nut to crack. Decentralized exchanges seem slow to develop... and they seem held back by lack of money, lack of coordination and a failure to ever secure enough trading volume that it makes sense to trade there.
I hope you're right about steemmonsters @denmarkguy. I just got into it a day before yesterday and it's not easy collecting them especially the golden ones.
I really hope this takes off.
Well capitualtion is really strong word and i cant agree with you on calendar is 9.8. Middle of summer, many people love summer and love go to sea in other countyes etc. Croatia is nice place and when you came here with cryptocurrency you stock because we are about 20 years later then world, then you sell crypto for euros and go on beach :D my point is there is no capitulation just many peoples sell his crypto and go on beach :D now will come new peoples and crypto will be again high until we change our mentalitet that crypto is money and we start accept it for goods
Sorry for bad english and have a nice day :)
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I see what you're saying @savagelion (your English is actually quite good, I think!), and that certainly may have something to do with it, as well.
Just the other day, I was having a dialogue with @scaredycatguide and we touched on this summer thing sometimes called the "Hippie Dip" in investing circles:
Wow yea and can you image time when you can go on that kind of festival with 0.4 BTC or any other cryptocurrency that will be fenomenal :D i bilive that time will come sooner or later depends only on us :D
Thanks for answering :D
PS. Just don't give up we must belive :D
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Oh, I'm not giving up... part of the purpose of my writing this was to suggest to people to not panic so much, and realize this is just part of the normal cycles we experience in investment markets.
Yea i noticed too many people losing motivation and fall in depresia when steem is low and thats a main tema when market is red :/
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I feel like Fonzie from Happy Days when he was selling ice cream from one of those peddle carts....he said I just get up to ninety and have to slow down for a kid waving a dime. Every time I think I am finally going to make my first hundred the balance starts going back down. lol. I guess there's always the bright side....I came here with a IOU in my pocket....at least I managed to get out of delegation.
Yup. I can relate to that... and last year I ended up having to power down and cash out in the middle of a strong dip, as well... looking at that possibility this year, too, as other things we've been involved (not related to cryptos) have been seriously tanking, for some months...
But yeah, we can usually find silver linings. My Facebook "wallet" is STILL at zero!
Well even I can find a silver lining in that....if you end up cashing out I won't feel so bad about giving a 1/10th of a meaningless penny up vote knowing that's all you will be giving me back....lol. I know, I know....someone already told me it's the thought that counts.
Just for shits and grins, have a more meaningful upvote... you know, because it's the thought that counts, and you might as well "smoke 'em if you got 'em!"
That was my goal too! Haha, it took WAY longer than I thought it would. Now my goal is to have an upvote worth a full penny. That way I can say dad stuff like “a penny for your thoughts” 😅
If you like penny cliche's then you will enjoy reading my introductory post:
https://steemit.com/introductory/@sunlit7/introducing-sunlit7-i-will-gladly-pay-you-tuesday-for-a-penny-today
Great article and I agree that we need to remove speculators and gamblers from the space and bring stability with value investors!
Things have been so very volatile for a while, and quite a bit of that can be attributed to people who are sitting in front of their computers, trying to "time" the market with every up and down move. Their "nervous trigger fingers" just make the swings bigger.
@roguemoney launched thecryptoschool.io. those guys really know their charts, they called the e t c rise, and by following them we were able to get out before the dip. Crypto cowboy called the BTC dip, and we were able to get out before the market crashed. They are completely against pump and dumps , they're just really good at reading charts and market analysis. I got tired of losing my hodl bag. It's been a bumpy ride but these guys are good. And they have really big hearts.
Thank you @dreamingirwin, and appreciate the "tip," as well... I will check them out. I'm not really into "trading," I'm more about buying solid assets and letting them appreciate over time... but being well-informed is always a good thing!
Let's put some cool & nice music to your great post my dear friend!! };)
Nice musical choice @por500bolos; it's definitely a good day to jut chill out for a while... I prefer to sit still and just watch, when people start running around in circles.
Right on, man. Let's hope the con artists, speculators, gamblers, and get-rich schemers are out—and if they aren't, that Steem falls even more. Those of us who remain can pick more up for great prices. Great writing!
I'm sure there will always be some scammers and schemers, but if a lot of them get burned hard enough, odds are they will head off to something that's easier. After all, their M.O. is "money for nothing." And that has become harder and harder around here.
Great content!
Hoping the capitulation is true and let's see how it'll turn around.
I hope it's true, too... although it's not something that happens in a single day, usually. We'll just have to keep watching. The first indication I'd be looking for would be to see each time there's a sudden "sell spike" the markets would right themselves back to where they were before within a couple of hours... or a day. But we'll have to be patient.
This post has received a 0.78 % upvote from @drotto thanks to: @dreamingirwin.
Thank you @dreamingirwin, appreciate the support.
I saw some crazy photos. Very good
Hi, @denmarkguy,
I just came looking for you, and discovered this fine article past its expiration date... <sigh>...
However, if you'll be kind enough to reply to my comment, I'll upvote the heck out of it. ;)
- @creatr
😄😇😄
