Happy new year! (+assessment of forecasts 2020 + new forecasts for 2021)

[zuerich]

Dear Hivers,

2020 has passed and, hell, what a year! I'd like to make a short recap of my forecasts for 2020 (made here: https://peakd.com/2020/@zuerich/15-forecasts-for-2020-15-prognosen-fuer-2020).

Politics

no. 1: Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic primary elections in the US.

• clearly wrong.

no. 2: Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November 2020.

• clearly wrong, too (though there are people who still can‘t believe it).

no. 3: Angela Merkel steps down as Chancellor - officially for reasons of personal health, unofficially due to internal party pressure (to give her successor time to present herself as "Chancellor Material").

• wrong. I think COVID-19 gave her a boost for her last year in office.

no. 4: The Brexit actually happens.

• rather true, the transition period ended on 31 December 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit).

no. 5: There will be no (relevant) trade deal between the US and China.

• Not sure about that, but rather true.

Economy

no. 6: The dollar continues to rise, from the current 96.80 to over 100 (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy?mod=watchlist_ticker).

• was partially true (high of 102.99 in late March), but dropped heavily afterwards. I still think the USD will rise far more. But I rate this forecast as wrong.

no. 7: The Dow Jones rises from the current $ 28,645 to over 33,000 (but could afterwards drop lower just as quickly).

• wrong, the ATH was at 30‘637 (Corona wasn't on the table in december 2019).

no. 8: A large European bank (e.g. HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Santander) becomes insolvent and must be bailed out.

• wrong

Crypto

no. 9: Bitcoin hits $ 30,000 during the year.

• wrong, but it was a photo finish, with a high of 29‘200 USD on the last day of 2020.

no. 10: Bitcoin's dominance continues to increase, from currently 68.2% to over 75%.

• wrong, but BTC‘s dominance increased from 68.2 to 70.5%.

no. 11: Steem rises from 78th place to the top 50 again (https://coinmarketcap.com/).

• wrong. Due to the hijacking of Steem, we now have Hive 😀. If I remember correctly Hive was temporarily in the top 50. Currently it's not, but I remain confident we will see Hive in the top 50.

no. 12: Steem reaches 2 million accounts in total (currently 1.35 million) - very daring, I know ...

• I am not sure about that, but I think there are still less than 2 million Hive accounts.

Others

no. 13: Croatia will win the European football championship.

• This event was cancelled.

no. 14: Protests / demonstrations continue to increase in number and violence (Hong Kong, Yellow Vest Movement, etc.)

• True, especially Black Lives Matter and anti-government protests in France.

no. 15: I will continue to accumulate bitcoins and Steems (stacking sats) and become an Orca.

• True (but a forecast I could enforce).

So, in summary out of 15 I have 10 wrong, 4 correct and 1 (no. 12) uncertain.

7 new forecasts for 2021:

1. Bitcoin will surpass 100‘000 USD before end of 2021.
2. The S&P500 will end 2021 lower than it is today (3‘756).
3. Hive will surpass 1 USD before end of 2021.
4. The winner of the 2021 German federal election (Bundestagswahl) and the new Chancellor will be Friedrich Merz.
5. The dollar (DXY https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY) will rise in 2021, from the current 90 to over 100.
6. A large European bank (e.g. HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Santander) becomes insolvent and must be bailed out.
7. A government debt/ currency crisis will arise, either in China or Turkey or Italy or Brazil.

My personal statistics on Hive for 2020 and goals for 2021:

• increased my stake from 41‘000 to 150‘000 (thanks to the stupid and criminal actions of Justin Sun and the resulting hard fork of Steem to Hive, I could dump my Steems and accumulate a lot more Hive 😍).
  

• wrote 56 posts (6 posts earning a payout of >10 USD, the highest-paid was this: https://peakd.com/hive/@zuerich/why-hive-is-a-great-name-for-our-community).

• 777 followers

• goals for 2021: 180‘000 Hive Power, at least 52 posts, 1‘000 followers

I wish you a great new year, with good health and a lot of success.
Hive on, zuerich

Comments

[xels]

Nice post, i will take part in your forecasts of this post:

1. Bitcoin will hit 70.000$ in 2021, but noch more
2. Not sure, but i agree ro you
3. i don‘t think so, i believe that Hive will hit 0,50$
4. The new Chancellor will be Markus Söder
5. I have no idea
6. I agree to you
7. I agree to you, i think Turkey first

[zuerich]

If not Merz, then Söder.
Laschet, Röttgen und Spahn halte ich für unwahrscheinlich 🤡

[xels]

Laschet ist nicht auszuschließen denke ich

[woelfchen]

sehr schön :)
frohes Neues und nochmal Danke! :)

[zuerich]

Hier noch eine Leseempfehlung, wenn Du Dich für Pilze 🍄 und Crypto interessierst:
https://medium.com/@BrandonQuittem/bitcoin-is-a-decentralized-organism-mycelium-part-1-3-6ec58cdcfaa6

[woelfchen]

kenn ich tatsächlich schon.. :)

[acesontop]

Good luck nailing your predictions and goals and happy new year.

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[der-prophet]

Ich gebe dir bei fast allen Punkten recht. Nur bei hive sehe ich das etwas skeptischer. Auf STEEMIT habe ich wegen appics gut 100 Follower mehr als auf hive.

Mal sehen wie sich das ganze noch entwickelt wenn Appics von STEEM zu telos migriert.

Ich wünsche dir weiterhin viel Erfolg und ein gesundes neues Jahr 2021!

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[zuerich]

Steem ist tot. Sorry für die schlechte Nachricht, aber ich bin nur der Übermittler.

Happy new year!

[der-prophet]

Naja der Kurs sagt etwas anderes aus. Wir werden sehen wie sich STEEM und HIVE dieses Jahr noch entwickeln.

Soll ja kein Grund sein sich zu streiten ;-)

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[yuriy4]

Good evening. Happy New Year to you and your family. I wish you great happiness, good health, and all the very best. I liked your goals for 2021 better, they are more realistic. Thanks a lot for the informative and interesting post. I wish you success.

[zuerich]

I wish you the same.

[break-out-trader]

Auch von mir ein frohes neues Jahr.

Meiner Einschätzung nach läuft 2021 der asiatische und der europäische Markt besser als in den USA. Facebook wird zerschlagen und lässt Plattformen wie Hive und Leo stark wachsen. Die CDU verliert weiter an Einfluss und muss einen grünen Kanzler akzeptieren.

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[zuerich]

Einen grünen Kanzler halte ich für unwahrscheinlich, und das würde mich noch bearisher gegenüber Deutschland machen 🤔.

[break-out-trader]

😂 😉

[agmoore]

we now have Hive 😀.

Hive will surpass 1 USD before end of 2021.

Yes! Happy New Year!

[thomasthewolf]

Na gut, wenigstens bei dem Follwer-Ziel kann ich Dich unterstützen. ;)

[zuerich]

Vielen Dank 🙏🏻

[bluemoon]

Happy New Year! I think this time you will have more predictions fulfilled at the end of the year. I hope we're all here together so we can check.

[patrickulrich]

I'm with you on your predictions for everything other than the price of Hive. There's still a whole lot of HBD in the DHF to keep the price low from what I've heard. I hope that's FUD but I haven't taken the time to look. I'll still just keep using Hive and hoping for the best! 😀

I like your goals for 2021! I need to take an inventory of what my 2020 was like as well and set future goals. I think that's a really valuable concept but still find myself always procrastinating away.

[lichtblick]

Happy new year and a clear rehive.

[zuerich]

Thanks a lot! Have a great new year!

[lichtblick]

Thank you.

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[pankajkabdwal]

Happy new year