candy49 (59)in #uk • 14 hours agoWhat really caused the Tory drubbing in 1997?There's been a lot of re-writing of history about the 1997 general election, mainly by people who were small children at the time, or who were born afterwards. They look at the…candy49 (59)in #uk • 6 days agoWill there be an election in May?Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party has been working really hard to move the opinion polling dial. Since November 2023, National Insurance has been cut by 4% (at a total cost of…candy49 (59)in #ireland • 9 days agoAre opinion polls reliable?The Republic of Ireland has just had a referendum to amend their constitution. There were two amendments proposed. One was to change references to "marriage" and replace it with…candy49 (59)in #uk • 18 days agoThe surprising results of the Rochdale by-electionI don't mean the winner George Galloway, I mean the man who came second, independent candidate Dave Tully. Tully owns a car repair business in Rochdale, and only decided to…candy49 (59)in #uk • 24 days agoWill the Speaker survive?So - we had shenanigans in Parliament last Wednesday. The SNP had an "Opposition Day". What does that mean? Well, the elected government controls the parliamentary schedule…candy49 (59)in #uk • last monthThe Rochdale by-election is hotting upRochdale's Member of Parliament, the Labour MP Sir Tony Lloyd recently passed away and a by-election to replace him will be held on 29th Feb. The whole thing has turned into a…candy49 (59)in #uk • 2 months agoWill Sunak's breakthrough on Northern Ireland change his political fortunes?Rishi Sunak has made the EU climb down further; they've agreed that Northern Ireland can freely participate in all trade deals the UK does with the rest of the world. I suspect…candy49 (59)in #uk • 2 months agoConservative fortunes have been declining since mid 2021Here is the polling graph: source Obviously there are ups and downs due to events - you can clearly see the dips due to partygate and Truss in the graph. But the…candy49 (59)in #uk • 2 months agoCould the Tories experience a Canadian style wipeout?In the 1993 Canadian Federal Election, the ruling Canadian Conservative party went from 156 seats to just 2 seats. With opinion polls looking dire for UK Tories, some pundits…candy49 (59)in #uk • 2 months agoDo election campaigns make a difference?The Conservatives, with the help of their Australian advisor Issac Levido, believe campaigns do make a difference. They're taking inspiration from Scott Morrison's unexpected…candy49 (59)in #uk • 2 months agoLabour start the year with a 16% leadHere is a chart of the average polls so far (the average is used so that the sampling errors of different pollsters cancel out): source At this point in the 1992 - 1997…candy49 (59)in #uk • 3 months agoDonations to the Tories surge in the third quarterHere is what the Electoral Commission reported UK political parties received in Q32023: source The Tories reported that they'd received a bequest of £10 million from John…candy49 (59)in #uk • 3 months agoVoting intention by housing tenureYouGov has done some interesting polling where they ask their polling panel their housing status (own outright, own with a mortgage, private renting or social renting). Here is…candy49 (59)in #uk • 3 months agoIs this chart the reason the Red Wall is so grumpy?It's a chart of house prices (what else?!), from 2007 to 2021, adjusted for inflation (i.e. "in real terms"). It's worth pointing out that in nominal terms all house prices have…candy49 (59)in #uk • 3 months agoA breakdown of the UK migration figuresLast week the net migration figures for the year ending June 2023 were released. (Net migration is people entering the UK to stay for at least a year, less people leaving). It…candy49 (59)in #us • 4 months agoMy thoughts on Henry Kissinger dyingAs a Brit, I'm really glad Harold Wilson kept the UK out of the Vietnam war (and the wars in Cambodia and Laos). It meant my dad didn't have his twenties ruined like the…candy49 (59)in #uk • 4 months agoIs Rishi Sunak aiming for a Spring election?The Autumn mini budget contained a number of surprises. The Chancellor cut National Insurance contributions by 2%. He also made some important changes to business expensing…candy49 (59)in #uk • 4 months agoThe UK public financesThe budget is next week, and there have been hints that there is some room for tax cuts. The Inland Revenue reports that Total HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) receipts for…candy49 (59)in #uk • 4 months agoDavid Cameron is back!So: Rishi Sunak sacked Suella Braverman as expected. But the sacking was completely overshadowed by the return of former Prime Minister David Cameron to serve as Foreign…candy49 (59)in #uk • 4 months agoConservative election hopes rest on persuading "Don't knows" to voteHere is the profile of the "don't know" voters: source The "don't knows" are remarkably similar to existing Conservative voters (and those who say they'll vote Reform).…