What was accomplished by the US-Iran war?
It has been about four months since the US (probably at the behest of Israel) declared war on Iran, with the ultimate objective of regime change, nuclear capabilities destroyed (weren't they destroyed last year in unsanctioned attacks?), and the cessation of state-sponsored terror by Iran - but it appears that with the latest yet to be formally signed deal, the Iranian regime is in a stronger position than before. So what was achieved?
The three possibilities to choose from:
- Gain
- Nothing
- Cost
And of course it is going to depend on which perspective is taken.
Iran for instance, whilst being bombed, losing infrastructure and facilities there was a high cost, they also gained a lot in power and influence by resisting the onslaught with a far less equipped military, and were able to effectively close of the strait of Hormuz, to exact economic pressure through oil flow. As far as the Iranian regime is concerned, the gains justify the costs, especially since they weren't the instigator of the conflict. At least, not directly.
Israel on the other hand has been further exposed and will likely pay the price of reduced support in the future from the US, as it kept on with its campaign actions despite the risk to peace deals. This means that they were hoping that the conflict would actually escalate further, with Iranian retaliatory actions bringing more states into the conflict. But, as the US also found, the rest of the world is growing tired of being pulled into conflict unnecessarily, likely because of all of the other economic turmoil that has been caused by the US over the year previous.
And then the US, well that has to be considered an egg-on-the-face defeat at the hands of a less superior military force, where they were outplayed due to strategic decisions Iran made over the flow of oil through Hormuz. Once they were able to hold that position, it was just a matter of time that the US would have to cave to the pressure it was causing, given that the massive expense of deployment and missiles were having very little effect on changing the state of play.
But while these were the major players, the real costs paid are to ordinary people who have been forced to not only finance this at every step of the way regardless of appetite for the conflict, but have been gouged financially again through inflation increases, and the increasing debts accrued by governments that use it as an excuse to spend more.
And the costs are going to keep adding up, because a new normal has been set by the US saying that state-sponsored enrichment activities are acceptable. It is okay to "take control of Venezuelan oil" by kidnapping the leader, and it is okay to threaten to do the same to Cuba. That means it justifies the actions of Russia in Ukraine, and paves the road for China in Taiwan and anywhere else it has its sights set.
It is an interesting juxtaposition, as in a couple weeks the US will celebrate 250 years of "freedom" since signing the declaration of independence, with a military defeat that was not sanctioned by the government and is an illegal war by US law. Let that sink in for a moment, because what it means is the "freedom" the people of the US have, where they are able to affect the determination of their country through a voting system, has been completely nulled and voided. It is proof that the average US citizen is utterly powerless to affect the decisions made by those who have effectively authoritarian control over the direction.
Perhaps that is a win?
Maybe now, rather than the thin veneer that was previously covering this lack of determination shaped into a mask of freedom, people can clearly see that they are indeed, powerless. Slaves of a system that is designed to continually use them as a resource to take from, over and over, crushing more and more people into suffering, to enrich those at the top. It might take varying forms, but the end goal is little different from any of the other regimes - more power and control over people and resources.
More in the hands of the few.
In an idyllic world, we wouldn't have any of these problems because human value and wellbeing would be the focus of activity. Unfortunately, we don't live in that world, because the reality is that human wellbeing is meaningless to those in control, and the only value people have is their capabilities to be used to maximise wealth and control for the tiny fraction of the population.
The goal is always to put more power in fewer hands.
Objective accomplished.
Taraz
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Although the signing is yet to be officially seen, but it seems closer than ever. This signing of MoU is the result of exhaustion and nothing else. Everyone - especially Gulf States - has been effected severly, mostly economically. Iran, as you have mentioned, has gained way more strength than before. Mr. Khamenei used his death to unite the Iranian people, and it did result in betterment. Thanks to the USrael Strait of Hormuz is the new weapon for Iran to be used even in the future.
Moreover, the greatest cost is the human loss, however thanks to the capitalist system, no one gives a damn about it. Ironically, this system guarantees the value and rights of each and every individual.
The most amazing thing for me is that Mr. Trump has always criticized president Mr. Obama's - JCPOA - signing of deal with Iran. Now, here he is, begging for the bare minimum.
The only gain I see is: world is going to change. The old world has, indeed, died; the new one is yet to begin. And, in this new world, middle-powers are going to take over some stage.
Till then: "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must".
And suffer we will. The inevitability of the entire economic system is that the majority are going to increasingly suffer so the minority can increase their wealth.
Israel totally started it. We just got sucked into it. I'm sure we weren't kicking and screaming though.
For sure. It didn't take much though. I also don't think it is the end of the conflicts this term.
You are probably right.
Everyone can see for themselves that Trump lost this pointless war but he and his sycophants will simply deny reality and call it a resounding victory.
And what’s really in the MoU? Lots of folks are posting what they think it is but the White House has not actually released the text. So there’s a chance that it’s even worse than we think. And what are the odds that it will be signed (in Geneva? virtually?) in the coming days, or that Trump will find some excuse to violate its terms?
Elect a clown, expect a circus.
This is exactly why I wrote "yet to be signed" because it is even odds it won't be.
The war accomplished the following:
Did it strengthen the lobby you think? I think it might have done the opposite abd created note anti-israel sentiment.
Price of oil going up isn't quite enough to turn them. The price is still too low compared to the rest of the world.
I think it did... Just watch what will happen after the war... I am betting that weaponry and dollars is going to flow like a river to Israel...
We don't know yet.. (not the true story).. but probably... 'Iranian sanctions have been lifted' - a win for Iran?
I think a win for Iran.
Abd perhaps at the end of the day, it doesn't matter... Same people get richer regardless.
No doubt Mr Orange face will try and cover up his embarrassing retreat.
Well wht did the folks in states expect when they chose such leaders. It's cautionary tale tht over generations will be retold on how not to choose incomptent leaders and the perils tht cause. This entire chirade was a self inflicted campaign to prove tht one tribe is superior, and tht fell flat as the rest of the world did not chime in with chorus. Now they're just engaging in face saving games to salve their over bloated egoes...
Face saving games that are likely too little, too late. I think abd hope the damage is severe enough that at least the EU forges a path away from the US.
This war was intended for regime change (if you believe), but ended up strengthening that very regime instead.
Now they can be really oppressive.
And ofcourse the commoners as usual pay the price for all the ruckus caused on both sides. It's truly sad state of affairs and I say once again I see this as a beginning of downfall of nations as a social construct and beginning of a new kind of boderless polity where ecosystems such as Hive will play a major role in shaping public opinion..
Or corporations will own it all.
This is how an illegal war between the US and Iran only brought heavy costs to regular people while making the leaders at the top more powerful. Even though the US had a much bigger military they still faced an embarrassing defeat because Iran successfully blocked the oil flows and outplayed them strategically. Now the average American (not just the American btw) citizen is left paying for this conflict through higher inflation and deeper government debt. This whole situation proves that regular people have no real say or freedom in the decisions that governments make.
In the end the only thing truly accomplished was putting more control and wealth into the hands of a very small group of people.
A good summary ! The big winner, of course, will be the military-industrial complex. The US didn't lose very many people, but they lost a huge quantity of ground-based assets (billion-dollar radars etc). Satellite imagery and photos taken locally also suggests they lost a significant number of aircraft on the ground to drone and missile hits, including several Reaper drones, quite a few KC-135's, and one or possibly two E-3 AWACS. Not to mention spaffing away most of their Patriot interceptor and Tomahawk missiles. Companies like Lockheed and Raytheon will make a fortune in replacement contracts, paid for with borrowings that will have to be covered by taxpayers for the next couple of generations.
But the real loss is going to be geo-political, on two fronts.
By using missiles on civilian ships rather than boarding them as a way to enforce their unilateral blockade, the US has shown the world that piracy is okay. In the process, they killed several Indian sailors plus another who died when he was taken ill and the US Navy ignored the distress calls (a clear breach of International Law). The Indian government has notably cooled towards the US and shown evidence of drawing far closer to Russia and even China.
Even more importantly, the lessons of Libya, Iraq, North Korea, Pakistan and now Iran are clear. If you want to avoid being bombed by the United States, get nuclear weapons, and enough of them to survive a first strike.
Rumour is that some of the Pakistani ones are already hosted in Saudi Arabia, and I expect that in the next few years we'll see Saudi Arabia and Turkey becoming openly nuclear states, with Brazil, Japan, Poland, Egypt, Algeria and South Korea as possible other candidates. Iran itself I'm not sure; the US cleverly assassinated the Supreme Leader, so it's a question of whether his fatwa died with him or if they really do mean what they say about not getting the bomb.
Cheers