There’ll be too much pandemonium enveloping for me to keep up with blogging about.
The Economic Path Forward May Lead Over A Cliff
The DJIA temporarily peaked on Armstrong’s epic January 18, 2020 Economic Confidence Model (ECM) turn date, along with being the approximate date the coronavirus (nCov) reached critical mass (although the first infection appears to have been December 8, 2019). The DJIA will probably form a slingshot correction possibly down to 27,000 now until probably May. Out of this correction the DJIA will likely slingshot up to the 35,000 to 38,000 level by the next significant ECM turn date on March 14, 2022.
The Dow & the Economic Confidence Model
The nCov pandemic has caused a final slingshot low in interest rates, with the Fed and other central banks prepared to goose the liquidity as necessary (Fed stating until at least April) to prevent financial contagion. Thus we have risk-off move into safe haven assets such as Treasury bonds, gold, and Bitcoin, while simultaneously a risk-on sentiment because the world is flooded with liquidity with no good place to park (nor invest) it.
Yet the DJIA will come roaring back when the spread of the pandemic slows because of increased containment (aka quarantine) efforts, the dollar short that the stress on the financial system being amplified by the various crises which will continue to send international capital flows into the dollar (and possibly UK pound) markets.
The Dow & the Economic Confidence Model
Armstrong blogged in Capital Flows & the Next ECM:
So far, it appears that the capital flows will continue pointing to the USA going into 2022. Thereafter, we should expect a change in that trend in the same position of the ECM, which created the 1987 Crash also due to a capital flight from the dollar.
Essentially the DJIA, gold, and Bitcoin bottomed at the end of 2018 on the ECM’s turn date, and have all been in bullish mode since:
But Bitcoin raced out of the gate from $3k up to $13.8k then corrected to $6.4k in what will be a slingshot move to probably ~$40+k before the May 14, 2020 mining reward halving event. Whereas the DJIA and gold have been rising more steadily with the DJIA recently making a bullish move toward 30,000 with the phase 1 trade deal with China, but it will now correct because of the fears about the financial system. I believe after May, the legacy Bitcoin will align with a phase transition blowoff peak above $1 million before 2022 as the DJIA heads towards 40,000 and gold to $2000+ (and possibly ultimately $5000 by 2024). Looks like the DJIA may crash after 2022 and remember there’s also some speculation about Trump not surviving in office beyond 2022.
Read also my latest comment post updates and especially my comment post update about altcoins.
See also How Long Does it Take to Accept the Revelations of the Economic Confidence Model?.
The Economic Confidence Model & the European Economy:
The economies of France and Italy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2019 […] The German auto manufacture, which is the backbone of the German export-economic model built upon the old mercantilist system […] is also in a bearish position. Production of cars, the largest export product in a German manufacturing sector dependent on exports, has fallen by about 16% over the past year […] In fact, German auto production has hit a 23 year low.
[…] With Britain exiting the EU, they will find a huge hole in their budget […] means that either the EU breaks up, or they are compelled to raise taxes on the remaining member states.
[…] headed into a Euro turning point 2021.73 […] 2021/2022 will be a critical turning point in world currencies.
nCov Updates; SARS combined with HIV
I don’t have enough time to compose a well articulated, organized prose. I will just copy and paste from my numerous frantic email updates (operating on basically no sleep for 3 days).
Cremate coronavirus dead nearby—Chinese authorities
Novel coronavirus may spread via digestive system—experts
Coronavirus: first human transmission in Thailand as death toll hits 258:
Suspected infection of taxi driver by traveller raises fears virus could reach tourist areas
A new analysis, published in The Lancet on Friday, estimated that as many as 75,800 people in Wuhan may have been infected as of 25 January and that several major Chinese cities might already have enough people infected to initiate local epidemics. “It is possible that epidemics could be already growing in multiple major Chinese cities, with a time lag of one to two weeks behind the Wuhan outbreak,” said the lead author, Prof Joseph Wu of the University of Hong Kong.
Quote from that Lancet paper:
Findings In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68
(95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of
Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline
scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805),
113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility
of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already
growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about
1–2 weeks.
The Virus & The Party - "We Are Now In Phase 3...":
The timeline is quite literally terribly obvious. In early December -and it could have been even earlier-, it was obvious to doctors and Communist Party (CCP) politicians in Wuhan that something was wrong. But their painfully predictable reaction was to hope this would pass. Never a bad word should be uttered about the Party, and nothing said that could embarrass it.
December passed, as news was getting worse and more obvious due to a large number of “pneumonia” patients. Chinese doctors published an article in the Lancet this week (this week, 6 weeks after the fact!) saying human-to-human transmission had been established by mid-December.
But the code of silence was not broken, even when a man died from the virus on January 9. It took until mid-January before word got out, a full week later. By then millions of people had left and/or entered Wuhan, a city of 11 million, potentially infecting millions of other Chinese and perhaps people abroad. 5 million later left the city for Lunar New Year.
On January 10, the virus was defined and the sequence was shared, but testing didn’t start for another week; patients were registered as pneumonia sufferers, including those that died (we have no idea how many there were).
Then, mid January, doctors starting testing for the virus. The first “exported” case was noted in Thailand on January 13, but it still took more time for the potential threat to be realized and reported. The Party boys were still hoping it would all pass. Can you blame them? They are civil servants, they don’t know anything about viruses, or their threat.
It’s good to note how fast the novel virus has spread. If only to show what those who are determined to keep such a thing silent are up against. Can’t be easy. 291 cases on Jan 20, 14,562 cases 13 days later. Those are exponential numbers, even if the number of fatalities “only” rose by 46 overnight.
It’s also good to keep in mind that the main threat in viruses is their ability to mutate and become deadlier. This virus now has at least those 14,562 hosts which they can use to mutate in. Hong Kong University doctor and epidemiologist Gabriel Leung and his team said in a Jan 31 report: _“In our baseline scenario, we estimated 75,185 infections as of Jan 25.” _. And they were reporting on Wuhan alone. In other words, well over 5 times as many hosts and chances for the virus to mutate in just one city. In a city of 11 million people, numbers like that are perhaps not that extreme.
Back to politics.
We have had two phases so far.
is first discovery followed by total silence.
is damage control, and deflecting all blame from the Party.
We are now in phase 3.
The WHO, which was caught napping as much as the Party in phase 2, lavishes great praise on that same Party now for its “extraordinary safety measures”. Locking down entire cities (increasingly people are not even allowed to leave their homes), speed-building hospitals, you name it. And the WHO is not the only entity praising the Party.
The reason why there is so much emphasis on this is that the CCP is desperate to show everyone, at home and abroad, that it is in control. That there is no reason to worry, at least not due to actions by the Party. If other countries have problems, that is not the Party’s fault.
If the Party is allowed to get away with this behavior aimed at self-preservation above anything else, including human lives of both Chinese and foreigners, something bad is sure to happen. Maybe not this time, maybe this one will fizzle out. But the next one, or the one after that, will not.
It is obvious how dangerous this is, putting the interests of the Party, or the economy, above the risk of spreading global pandemic. But is is also obvious why it happens. And it wouldn’t or couldn’t happen only in China. Though the country in its present state is a ideal breeding ground.
When viewing those two charts cited in the above quote, keep in mind Armstrong’s pivotal January 18 ECM turn date and what I blogged in McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price:
Dr. Albert Bartlett stated, “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Imagine a caretaker that comes to check on his lily pond once a month. It requires 36 visits (i.e. months) for the pond to be completely covered with lily pads. But on the 35th visit the pond is only half covered. If not thinking in terms of exponential math, the typical human caretaker’s linear extrapolating, visual mind will be fooled into thinking there’s 35 more visits after the 35th visit before the pond will be fully covered.
The One Number That Could Reveal A Chinese Coronavirus Cover-Up:
In addition, it appears as though the numbers coming out of Hubei province are accelerating, with the area reporting 1,921 new cases and 45 new deaths as of Saturday night.
Yes, I already saw the numbers and put them in a graph!! This is MUCH higher than any previous report from the Province of Hubei, the epicenter of #Wuhan #Coronavirus. Very alarming! Starting to get out of control now!
The skepticism around the Chinese government's data comes as no surprise to me. I have spent more than a half decade researching U.S. listed China based companies and working daily and directly with Chinese nationals to uncover fraud being perpetuated on American capital markets.
The research of our firm and the story of our firm's partner, Dan David, was featured in a documentary called The China Hustle that was produced by Academy Award winner Alex Gibney and backed by Mark Cuban's film company, Magnolia Pictures. While not an expert, I consider myself to have a better understanding of the ethos coming out of the country than most people.
And in my opinion, I believe people should harbor a skeptical opinion of anything that comes out of the Chinese government.
So, what data am I looking at to try and verify or contradict China's claims? I'm watching the fatality rate outside of China. As of right now, the fatality rate of about 2% (NY Times says "less than 3%"), according to China's numbers, is often cited as reason not to worry about the virus. Let us first remember that the normal flu has a fatality rate of about 0.4%, which makes the Wuhan coronavirus far more lethal. It also spreads quicker.
For these reasons, I am frightened by the amount of people writing this outbreak off with direct comparisons to the normal flu. I am also alarmed by the consistent travel in and out of China that has been occurring while the U.S. government has dragged its feet in suspending flights.
“China has about four times as many train and air passengers as it did during the SARS outbreak,” the New York Times commented. The number of people affected has already skyrocketed past the SARS outbreak.
Second Case Of Coronavirus Declared In California As NYT Suggests Pandemic:
Meanwhile, WBZ reports that two plans from Wuhan landed at Boston's Logan airport just hours before the nationwide travel ban on flights landing from China is set to begin.
In other news, according to an unconfirmed report citing TV Peru, a 72-year-old Peruvian woman died from coronavirus in Los Angeles, and his body was repatriated to Peru. According to the death certificate, the cause of his death is the deadly virus of Chinese origin that triggered pneumonia and other complications in his health.
According to the doctor Marco Almeri, the transfer of the body will not generate any type of epidemic. “When a body dies it changes the temperature and all the chemical conditions. Therefore, it is impossible for the virus to survive, ”he told TV Peru.
Update (1100ET): In a report that has since been deleted from the Chinese Internet, Chinese media company Caijing reported that many deaths and suspected cases of the virus haven't been counted due to intentional mislabeling, according to Bloomberg.
An unidentified doctor from a Wuhan hospital designated for coronavirus treatment said that they have admitted about 600 severe cases, but none of these patients were confirmed as having coronavirus due to a lack of tests.
[…]
And then holy shit! Look at this chart. SARS was initially only 3.5% death rate then it climbed to 10%. But the nCov virus is spreading exponentially faster! Oh this could be very, very bad if true:
'Burning Bodies In Secret' - New Accounts From Wuhan Detail Coronavirus Outbreak
[…]
In contrast, influenza while also very contagious and widespread, but only kills
~0.05%— nCov thus about 50X more deadly:
Coronavirus Death Toll Hits 257 As Confirmed Cases Top 10,000Projections after the SARS infections concluded that with even a moderate pandemic the US would have been short 40,000 ventilators to treat patients. If the quarantines prove ineffective and as medical supplies become stretched to breaking the mortality rate will soar above twenty percent. Hundreds of millions corpses burned in ditches?
The real story is that only China can build new hospitals in 7 days and health care systems of the rest of the world are unprepared to handle the onslaught. This is going to reveal how horrible and deadly socialized healthcare really is. And how inefficient democracy can be, because surely politics will interfere as it has been with WHO and nations slow to declare travel bans to contain the spread before it became too late.
[…]
See important information below about corona virus being more virulent in E. Asians and men, than females and Europeans.
Remember that the Black Death that decimated Europe in the Dark Ages originated out of East Asia. It come into Europe via Ukraine as the attackers at the gates of Eastern Roman Empire were catapulting diseased corpses over the walls protecting against invasion.
Gerald Celente and others such as Martin Armstrong are conflating hysteria with science:
Note infections might not be slowing down in China. Might be the ability to test and confirm with PCR that is overwhelmed:
Or it might be sigmoidal:
Nicholas Taleb (160 I.Q. author of Black Swan and Antifragility) weighs in basically (and more eloquently) making the points I have been making about fat-tailed risk:
https://necsi.edu/systemic-risk-of-pandemic-via-novel-pathogens-coronavirus-a-note
The authorities may have concluded that attempting to stop spread would cause more deaths than limited containment, because of the impacts on vital systems if they implemented a strict isolation plan:
But those impacts could come at the fat-tail:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/what-the-1918-spanish-flu-can-tell-us-about-the-coronavirus/
Twitter bans Zerohedge permanently:
Because they’re stoking the pandemonium of truth:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rewriting-history-world-war-ii-ominous-warning
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/state-democracy-around-world
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/can-bernie-and-tulsi-survive-hillarys-urge-save-dnc
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/supers-are-back-dnc-members-planning-move-block-sanders-again
There’s evidence that nCov (and SARS) bind via ACE2, which appears to be expressed 2X more in East Asians as compared to Europeans and 2X more in males than females. Blacks and South Asians are deferentially expressed. ACE2 is associated with testes and male fertility. So a European female has 4X less risk than an East Asian male:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
Also ACE2 seems to be expressed in hypertension and cardiovascular disease, so these individuals will be more risk of serious infection:
https://www.karger.com/Article/Abstract/324521
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/01.RES.0000169536.73576.66
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/path.2162#accessDenialLayout
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gene/59272
I concur with Catherine Austin Fitts’ speculation (myself positing this may be an engineered virus) that asymptomatic spread is a pretense for mandatory vaccinations and then probably also gun control, in violation of the U.S. Constitution:
I agree with her that the nanotechnology applied as a solution may be a risk. For example if it unlocks something in the immune which enables the spliced structures from HIV to activate in the body. Or possibly downregulation of ACE2 will make men infertile. Note one such treatment proposal coming from a non-Asian to permanently downregulate ACE2 with an immunological agent:
https://f1000research.com/articles/9-72
A doctor speculates about the HIV “homology” insertions into this new virus (and he talks about the involvement of ACE2):
⇪ the technical analysis, at 14:30 he expression opinion it was bioengineered
It may be that the HIV inserts only downregulate the immune system response temporarily to enable asymptomatic contagious transmission. IT MAY BE THAT ASYMPTOMATIC INDIVIDUALS EVENTUALLY BECOME SYMPTOMATIC OVER SOME LONG-TERM HORIZON. So then you need to force the entire population to be tested and/or receive some vaccination.
This seems to be both a population control and totalitarianism plan. Seems to be right out of the playbook of the Georgia Guidestones (which is believed to have been funded by Ted Turner):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones#Inscriptions
- Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
- Guide reproduction wisely […]
[…]
- Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
- Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
- Balance personal rights with social duties.
[…]
- Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.
[…]
Wonder why [some who work for] John Hopkins is now disingenuously saying it is too late to quarantine. And also Bill Gates was warning of a virus that would require a war-level response:
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/191017-press-release.html
We’re been played as the stupid cows/sheepeople that we are.
[…]
Armstrong continues his conflation while also not backing his claims with any citations in Coronavirus & HIV – The Truth?:
Before we jump to the next zombie apocalypse, I question why any reliable scientist would sport out such findings without peer-review.
Because we don’t have time Martin! Cripes man. There’s only a limited window of time to contain this with stricter quarantines. Do you always fail to comprehend the exponential function.
Everything is turning on this distrust of China. If the coronavirus was splice in a lab by them for military purposes, then surely they would not hand the evidence over to the rest of the world. Let’s be rational here.
China didn’t likely release an engineered virus on themselves. Why are you so resistant to idea of the existence of the globalist Zionist power? You continue to make assumptions and conflations.
Sources checking whether it was true that HIV and coronavirus have similarities found that while these sequences do pop up in HIV, they ALSO pop up in so many other viruses. There’s absolutely NO EVIDENCE that they are immediately suspect or that they were somehow genetically spliced in by the lab in China which is the implication. One out of four sequences is indeed found in both Wuhan coronavirus and HIV. The same sequence also appears in a virus that infects Streptococcus (spherical bacteria), which is of a rat virus in origin. They also appear in what is known as an “acute bee paralysis virus.”
Bullshit. The doctor I cited is pointing out the depressed white blood cell counts and depressed blood pressure as potential evidence.
And you offer no citations whatsoever. Only your word, yet then you complain about peer review (gatekeeper control of!) published papers which offer sources.
Are those other alleged instances exact copies of the instances spliced into nCov? These inserts weren’t in SARS and MERS.
The likelihood they would just suddenly pop in there in the wild is probably very low. It’s too coincidental and more likely a (intentional or accidental) release of a research lab experimental virus.
Sorry, perhaps the culprit may just be mother nature and not some mad scientist in a lab. We should wait for a peer-to-peer review, but this claim from India appears to be bogus on the surface. It is not pointing out that this sequence also appears in many other viruses.
It appears to be more complicated than that. There are 1273 of amino acids in one section and 6 amino acids in another small section, and you have provided no sources for us to check your claims. And the NIH-contributing research doctor I cited, claims part could have been inserted and part could have been achieved by selective breeding in the lab.
This claim comes from a questionable scientist based in India where he took the genome sequences of Wuhan coronavirus, without any peer review, and claimed that it had similarities to the genome of…HIV. Some have argued this is why it is even spreading so fast. Sorry, that is because of how it is transmitted which is like the seasonal flu whereas HIV was transmitted predominantly from sexual contact.
Again you are behind the curve. As now there are reports it can maybe transferred via feces.
Given that the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) appears to have four additions to its genome that similar viruses, like SARS and MERS, are lacking. This implies a lower death-rate, but perhaps a higher contagion rate being more similar to the seasonal flu.
You continue to report that erroneous claim that the death rate is lower then SARS. I have explained to you numerous times in email why this is incorrect to conclude at this juncture.
Are you a disinformation agent wanting to aid the progression of the pandemic by confusing people about whether stricter quarantines are necessary? I warned you many times to be careful and circumspect of what you publish, because you have perhaps a million readers and you could be blamed in the aftermath. I do not want you to end up in prison again.
[…]
Oh fucking shit! Why is nobody (or is anyone?) publishing the ramifications of crunching the numbers on this:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_home
In above case involving 6 total infections in Germany, symptoms appeared within 5 days and contagious transmission occurred in asymptomatic individuals 1 day after infection! Oh shit!
Combine that with an R0 of 4.0, then we can be looking at 3 or 4 orders-of-magnitude of growth of infections per month. Could go from say 100 infections to 100,000 or 1 million infections in a single month without some forms of quarantine. Then to 10 million or 1 billion in the succeeding month without containment. So let’s analyze containment...
We can potentially quarantine the symptomatic and arrivals from infectious zones, but eventually so widespread that asymptomatic infection will be unstoppable, albeit slower (somewhat contained but not abated) if people are quarantined after developing symptoms. But if the articles are true that shedding continues after recovery, then quarantines will need to be perhaps 30 days or even indefinitely for months. And that is not even mentioning the inexplicable HIV genetic code apparently in this corona (aka nCov) virus.
The R0 of 4.0 was for China during the period in which containment was not yet aggressive. The R0 might initially even be higher in countries with worse hygiene and congestion than China such as India and the Philippines, although these countries are already initiating some containment measures.
We just don’t know yet what the R0 will be with containment. Depends what percentage are asymptomatic and how infectious the asymptomatic are statistically and for how many days they remain asymptomatic and infectious.
My guess is the Philippines will not be proactive enough about containment even for symptomatic cases initially. So I am expecting an explosion of infections in the Philippines. Probably within 2 to 4 weeks we will have 1000 infections and a dozen+ deaths. And perhaps 10,000 infections and dozens of deaths within 4 to 6 weeks.
So I figure sometime within the next 2 to 6 weeks, bans and/or quarantines on travel from the Philippines (and probably also many other Asian nations such as Thailand) will be adopted by most nations.
Perhaps I am wrong and the Philippines health authorities will succeed in tracking down all contacts with those Chinese who have been in the country, but this seems implausible presuming even just touching an elevator knob and then touching your nose or mouth could lead to infection. We just do not know yet the vectors of infection to that level of detail.
What I am expecting is explosions of infections in nations which then force strict containment measures. Then spread slows down to the rate that can be sustained by asymptomatic infection.
Then quarantine in internment camps on military bases for those who have recovered from symptoms.
Now I understand why the USA had been building so many internment camps near railroads. The Zionists appear to have planned this out very well. This is how they will strengthen the controls over the population, “show me your papers” whenever you want to travel.
Actually this is exactly what I had predicted in 2010 when I used to research these sort of conspiracy theories. Now it is coming to fruition exactly as I had envisioned. I had even envisioned them splicing it with HIV.
When I get back settled in the USA, I will rest and then I will locate my old public writings that had these predictions. My old forum from 2010 is still available on the Internet. The writings are surely there. I am not lying.
Also we have the Olympics in Tokyo on 24 July to further spread this virus out into the world.
The asymptomatic spread is perfect for justifying draconian totalitarianism. This is not likely a coincidence.
Nobody believes the Zionist power exists. “Bat shit insane” I am. Yeah right. Idiots.
[…]
I am very aware the Martenson has been perpetually wrong about markets. Back in 2010 I was a subscriber of his paid services and posted on his forum and he banned me for disagreeing with him.
But medicine [pathology] is his PhD, so he has some credibility in that area.
I did not attempt to Google the authors of that paper (remember I had no sleep past days). Martenson claimed he did and showed the other papers that have been published. Also he analyzed the statistical model. Again I wrote that I had not yet the time (sleep) to study the math myself.
Be careful with conflating. Armstrong has been making many conflation errors lately also. Just because Martenson sucks at markets, does not mean he sucks in his PhD in pathology. Armstrong is conflating for example that just because a virus arrives on schedule with cycles, does not mean that it is not engineered. The cycles cover human nature. We humans have incentives which have cycles.
Also Armstrong has been conflating mass hysteria over man-made climate change nonsense with any attempts to raise extreme concerns about this nCov virus.
It is still possible that the virus is very tame and that it will end up not being a big problem. But I would place the odds of that at this point of less than 33%. The huge unknown in my mind now is how significantly will this virus spread outside of China, what will be the mortality, and most importantly what are the vectors of spread and are there any long-term health or infectious implications even for those who recovered from infection. I am trying to find the answers...
Hey what is your problem with a “Data Science Institute”? They analyzed the data and indicated their assumptions. They collaborated with those having specializations in the communicable disease field. It appears to have been a collaborative authorship of necessary sub-specialties.
Chris Martenson did not send out warnings about the previous pandemics since the turn of the century:
Also he debunks the math of the incorrect estimates of the mortality rank as I have also done several days ago.
Actually Chris is correct to short the markets, but he was just too soon. We are at peak prosperity, but the collapse he is shorting will not happen until at least after 2022.
Also Chris is incorrect about peak oil.
[…]
First confirmed death outside China due to nCov, and it is in the Philippines:
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1222995/coronavirus-what-we-know-about-first-death-outside-china
“Over the course of the patient’s admission, he developed severe pneumonia. In his last few days, the patient was stable and showed signs of improvement,” Duque said in a report from the Inquirer.net
“However, the condition of the patient deteriorated within the last 24 hours resulting in his demise. We are currently working with the Chinese Embassy to ensure the dignified management of the remains according to national and international standards to contain the disease,” he added.
We can see the victim likely spread the nCov all over the provinces already:
They stayed with the MCIA domestic departure for several hours for their flight to Dumaguete City on the same day.
They then travelled to Dauin town in Negros Oriental, the jump out point for the famous Apo Island dive and marine preserve. However, there was no indication that they travelled to the Island.
They were recorded to have boarded a flight from Dumaguete to Manila on January 24, where the 38-year-old woman was confirmed to have been afflicted by the Wuhan coronavirus.
I have been to Dauin and Dumaguete in the past, with the latter being a congested city but not as congested as Cebu and Manila. In fact, I first arrived in Dumaquete in 1990 when it was a sleepy town without even a single hotel nor car. And in 1990 there was no electricity outside the town center.
This nCov death is another sign pointing to the Philippines ending up being one of the most affected after China. The medical system in the Philippines and the culture of the filipinos are horrible.
That is probably one of the factors that pushed Philippines’ President Duterte to belatedly quarantine all incoming travel from China. But still he is behind the curve, as this quarantine should apply to Thailand as well. There were 1000s of Chinese in Thailand for the Chinese New Year. Btw, the timing on the release of this posited to be engineered virus is very suspicious.
[…] Duterte probably was thinking the patient would survive and that the virus is not that deadly so not worth the economic costs of angering China or feeding xenophobia (inherent distrust/dislike of Chinese by filipinos). He has committed a grave error that will perhaps destroy his legacy. Also there was a very critical editorial which I cited, which represented the political pressure that was building against Duterte:
https://opinion.inquirer.net/127093/irresponsible-dithering
Former health secretary Esperanza Cabral warned that more cases will likely emerge in the coming days with the end of the disease’s two-week incubation period, particularly because, as she said in Filipino in a CNN report, “we didn’t issue a travel ban for any visitors coming in from areas with confirmed cases of the coronavirus.”
President Duterte did declare a ban on flights from Wuhan on Friday — days after the area itself had been on lockdown, and some 24 hours after the World Health Organization had declared a global health emergency.
Previous to that, the President had refused to impose such a ban, saying “it would not be fair” to China. Echoing his boss, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III publicly fretted that prohibiting Chinese tourists from coming in might have “serious political and diplomatic repercussions.”
Instead, in continuing to welcome Chinese travelers — a Xiamen Air flight from Jinjiang landed in Davao on Wednesday and its more than 50 Chinese passengers allowed to leave the airport; on Tuesday, some 778 Chinese passengers of a cruise ship were also cleared to disembark in Manila — the Bureau of Quarantine has offered the assurance that thermal scanners at airports and other ports of entry are adequate to detect those who are sick.
But such scanners are, in fact, of limited use, because those infected may not immediately manifest fever, coughing and other symptoms. The diagnosed 38-year-old woman from Wuhan had been in the Philippines since Jan. 21 and had traveled to Cebu and Dumaguete before she was checked for cough at the hospital on Jan. 25.
“There’s no doubt that asymptomatic transmission is occurring,” said the US’ top infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci — meaning the disease can be unknowingly spread by infected but otherwise healthy-looking travelers that have passed through airport scanners.
Shouldn’t that game-changing fact have startled the government into more forceful action?
Duterte refuses to quarantine returning filipino citizens:
I think he fails to understand that the Philippines will be a fucking hell if the virus spreads like it did in China. The Philippines does not have the resources nor culture to deal with it. For example look at the contingencies they are preparing which are inadequate because the virus spreads from those who are asymptomatic:
They are just money hungry and the aristocracy which runs the country does not give a shit if many people die as long their profits continue (so they were in denial probably and not looking at how such selfishness could totally destroy their investments long-term):
Tangentially I need to apologize for my recent delusion about positive benefits of living in the Philippines after years of warning how bad it is over there. I was had an initial bout of relief due to improved conditions (and some exposure to American legacy culture) when I had transferred from Mindanao to Angeles City. Angeles City is indeed a significant improvement over Manila, Cebu or Mindanao, but still it’s a shithole. This becomes apparent once the initial blinders wear off. The Philippines is a shithole. Do not go here. Period. Some examples:
https://www.rappler.com/nation/250035-davao-based-journalist-arrested-interviewing-protesters
Also the spread of the virus is even reaching far flung provinces of China:
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1223002/new-chinese-city-locked-down-over-virus-first-foreign-death
The truth about Chinese hygiene and habits are again causing (justifiable) xenophobia to rise:
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1222986/fears-of-new-virus-trigger-anti-china-sentiment-worldwide
I am hoping that the Taal volcano doesn’t disrupt my [return] flight [this coming week back to USA]:
The [eruption] alert level has been dropped to 3 from 4 the past couple of weeks, so hopefully I will get out of this country on schedule.
Volcanic earthquake from Taal felt in parts of Batangas, Tagaytay:
Phivolcs says the volcanic earthquake was magnitude 3.2 and struck at 4:20 am on Monday, February 3. It is among the latest quakes which show magma is still moving beneath Taal Volcano's crater.
At the main crater, Phivolcs observed "moderate to voluminous emission of dirty-white to white steam-laden plumes rising 800 meters high" in the past 24 hours.
This is compared to only "weak emission of white steam-laden plumes 50 to 100 meters tall" in the previous 24-hour period.
Taal has been under Alert Level 3 since January 26. Before that, the restive volcano was under Alert Level 4 for two weeks, starting January 12.
The downgrade to Alert Level 3 had been prompted by an "overall decrease in the level of monitoring parameters," though Phivolcs warned then that the threat of a hazardous eruption remains.
80 persons being probed for novel coronavirus in PHILIPPINES:
Eight of the new cases being probed came in contact with the first two confirmed cases
This is up from the 36 reported on Sunday, February 2. Of the 80, 1 has died, 68 are admitted and isolated in hospitals, while 10 have been discharged but are still being monitored.
Of the 80 samples, 2 have tested positive, 30 have tested negative, and 48 results are still pending, according to data from the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine (RITM).
Epidemiology Bureau Director Ferchito Avelino said that 8 of the new cases being monitored are people who came in contact with the couple from Wuhan, China, who were the first positive cases of 2019-nCoV in the Philippines. The 8 people showed signs of coughs and colds, according to Avelino.
Avelino added that the Epidemiology Bureau has found a total of 74 contacts the couple interacted with in Cebu and Dumaguete. They have been advised to go on home quarantine and are discouraged from interacting with other people within 14 days.
300 Chinese stranded in PH due to coronavirus travel restrictions:
About 300 Chinese were left stranded at several terminals across the country, following the Philippine government's sweeping travel restrictions imposed […]
Most co-passengers of nCoV fatality asymptomatic, others being tracked, says airline:
So far, based on the latest update—because we called an emergency meeting yesterday—all passengers are not sick. They are okay. They did not exhibit flu-like symptoms.
Villaluna, however, added that PAL is having difficulty getting in touch with passengers who did not register their phone numbers before boarding the flight.
PAL earlier announced that the crew of the said flight is on self-quarantine for 14 days.
[…]
From first hand experience I know the following is a hilarious exaggeration: Philippines’ healthcare system not weak – Duque:
[…] Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said Monday that the Philippines is not a country with a weak healthcare system.
The countries that have weak healthcare systems are those that are really poor. They are referring to third world countries. We are in a middle-income country. We are not included there.
Oh maybe in Manila they have a few first world quality hospitals but this is just a drop in the bucket of beds they will need if there are 10,000 infections. And in the provinces, the healthcare system can be near to the level of Africa in some cases, especially it drops off very quickly after the first few hundred beds in every major locale.
[…]
I will comment more after reviewing more information. Finally caught up on a little bit of sleep (6 hours). Need to go eat dinner first.
Our hygiene is much better in the USA for example than in much of Asia. Also the rural areas of the USA are not congested. Americans don’t like to live packed in like sardines with their extended families, unlike for example Filipinos even on the farms who choose to build all their houses stacked on top of each so they will feel so close (as in sleeping all in the same room leg over next body).
My gut reaction is that the re-acceleration of spread will eventually take place in these squalid, overcrowded Asia nations outside of China sometime in 2020 perhaps. Eventually that makes it way into the West, because for example 1 million+ Filipnos live in the USA so there is a lot of travel between Asia for U.S. citizens. The USG can not ban U.S. citizens from returning. It can only quarantine them for 14 days perhaps, but now we have indications that the virus continues to shed long-term even after recovery.
Concentration camps coming?
This is too coincidental. The virus looks to be engineered.
[…]
This virus that is spreading now is much worse than the governments are telling us.
Some models have the R0 higher than 4.0 (higher than SARS) and they say comparable fatality rate ~7% as SARS:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1
The authors include many prestigious institutions. Chris Martenson has a PhD in pathology.
If this true, this virus is absolutely uncontainable. Total projected infections are 346 billion people (all people on the planet). Skip to the 6 min point in the video. The WHO and governments are trying to prevent a panic. They’re lying.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1
...
I wrote on Jim’s new blog:
https://blog.jim.com/war/warriors-merchants-war-markets-and-capitalism/#comment-2351808
And yet you still can’t distill to the generative essence which is
1 Samuel 8and15.If you want a King to lead into war, you will be eventually slaughtered. There’s only one King and he is very angry that the world has forsaken his Son.
And now the bowls of Revelation are being poured out as I predicted back in 2010 that HIV would be spliced with an airborne virus:
Jim you are way behind the curve. Satan and his Zionists have been working on this [and Bitcoin] for a long time. I even remember reading online many years ago about alleged attempts to splice HIV and a flu and introduce via bats.
These may be the signs mentioned in the Bible. Also the rise of the Red Dragon (China).
Again the irony of a self-claimed genius Eric S. Raymond who once wrote about me publicly on his blog, “you’re bat shit insane.”
He got the ‘bat’ part right though. Give him props for that inkblot luck.
Christians need to get their house in order. The time is approaching.
[…]
Someone replied:
The guy Chris Martenson in the Youtube clip citing the study might be questionable. The research comes from the site "medrxiv.org". I visited the site just now and right in the centre in red comes with a warning message.
Not saying it is false or cannot be trusted, which can be said the same of the official numbers coming out of China, but perhaps a more accurate estimate of the true severity is to watch the progression of infections and deaths outside of China such as USA and Europe. So far, no one has died which seems odd given it is lethal.
Dude, Chris has a PhD in pathology. Did you watch his video? He points out that the paper is not peer reviewed. He also points out the numerous prestigious institutions and individuals who authored the paper.
Chris has since pointed out that the recent bans on travel may contain and slowdown the rate of infections for a while:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-now-that-its-a-national-emergency-is-it-too-late/
Duterte in the Philippines finally (belated) quarantined all incoming travel from all of China as of 6 hours ago. He waited too late though. The cat is out the bag. They can slow this down initially but it will reaccelerate later after the seed infections smolder and spread in all nations on earth. At least the containment measures may give others who want to leave Asia some extra time.
And you are mischaracterizing what "medrxiv.org" is warning:
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
If you click that it says:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/what-unrefereed-preprint
What is an unrefereed preprint?
Before formal publication in a scholarly journal, scientific and medical articles are traditionally “peer reviewed.” In this process, the journal’s editors take advice from various experts—called “referees”—who have assessed the paper and may identify weaknesses in its assumptions, methods, and conclusions. Typically a journal will only publish an article once the editors are satisfied that the authors have addressed referees’ concerns and that the data presented support the conclusions drawn in the paper.
Because this process can be lengthy, authors use the medRxiv service to make their manuscripts available as “preprints” before peer review, allowing other scientists to see, discuss, and comment on the findings immediately. Readers should therefore be aware that articles on medRxiv have not been finalized by authors, might contain errors, and report information that has not yet been accepted or endorsed in any way by the scientific or medical community.
We also urge journalists and other individuals who report on medical research to the general public to consider this when discussing work that appears on medRxiv preprints and emphasize it has yet to be evaluated by the medical community and the information presented may be erroneous.
[…]
Someone emailed me:
Imagine what's going to happen when this thing hits India's urban centers. Bodies stacked on top of bodies, everyone shitting everywhere, nonexistent public health infrastructure, etc.
[…]
Meanwhile Armstrong is back to his former delusion of associating climate zealots with nCov realists:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/coronavirus-the-numbers/
Fucking amazing that Armstrong is so pissed about climate zealots and so sure that there’s no Zionist conspiracy, that he is going to end up having egg all over his face about both Bitcoin and this pandemic.
Armstrong is a good guy, but he does not realize that his sources are compartmentalized. He can not look over the forest to see the really BIG PICTURE of how the Zionists are reshaping the world.
He can not connect the dots, because he is a boomer and was brought up to believe that we should trust.
Sorry Marty. You are a very smart guy and you have done a great service to humankind, but sometimes you are as blind as a bat because of your confirmation biases.
[…]
Once again Martin Armstrong making mistakes because of his hubris:
Martin the flu is seasonal. Didn’t you listen to the head of the CDC speak today?
The huge threat is because the spread of nCov may never abate because the nCov is not likely only a seasonal spreading virus, but rather likely year round continuously spreading.
[…]
Armstrong is comparing 16.5 million annual flu infections in the USA to 1.3 billion population of China. Wft? The USA population is only 0.3 billion. Also the flu only spreads from people who have symptoms. This new nCov spreads from people who have no symptoms. And additionally the flu only spreads during winter outbreaks, not the entire year. This nCov may spread the entire year, because there is something very peculiar going on in that it can spread from people who have entirely no symptoms.
Excuse me I have only slept about 4 hours in the past 3 days, so I missed some of Martin’s egregious mistakes in my prior scolding of his nonsense.
How can a man who is smart enough to make the accomplishments he has, be so utterly idiotic with his posts about this virus?
The likely explanation is emotions. He is so invested in this not being what “conspiracy theorists” are citing, that he wants to group all doomsday people in the same stereotype. He groups us with the climate change lunatics and zealots.
We are looking at the possibility of 200,000 infections a day in China by April. That is not a winter flu season. And that would be 6 million infections a month and growing exponentially every month until 2022.
[…]
Furthermore the link Armstrong provided explains that the seasonal flu infects up to 49 million people in the USA annually. That is 1/6th of the population.
And this nCov is not seasonal. It is cumulative. And it is also perhaps incurable, being it may be spliced with HIV.
Armstrong is going to have egg all over his face because he believes the Zionists do not exist. Lol.
[…]
I will wait for more confirmation and catch up on sleep before blogging about this.
Armstrong predicted the rise of a pandemic to hit in 2019/2020 and that the peak could be 2022. But now he wants to stop using his brain and make numerous mental errors, all because he is conflating our “conspiracy theories” with the climate change idiots.
Instead he should look a the plague cycle again. Is it 13 years. So will 2035/2036 be when many of those who were infected by nCov in 202–2022 start dying from an AIDS-like infection?
If Martin would just stop putting blinders on and open his mind, he may discover important keys to the universe.
The bowls of plagues and ruin in Revelation are being poured out. I remember when I predicted circa 2010 that a virus would be created that would splice HIV and the flu, so that the all die of “open sores” mentioned in the Bible could be achieved by transmitting HIV through an airborne virus. Geore Carlin even joked about it in Save the Planet.
And now this new coronavirus appears to be it. Eventually we may discover that we are never cured even if we survive the initial onslaught. It could end up a long-term death sentence like HIV. Read this:
[…]
Armstrong now has egg all over his face.
There were lab experiments going on to create this sort of virus:
https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787
The new coronavirus can apparently be spread from stool and bodily fluid secretions of the dead (may explain why they are cremating the bodies in China):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53753240#msg53753240
And prolonged shedding of the virus even after recovery:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_coronavirus
[…]
Isolation is the only effective measure:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-01-31/be-prepared-what-how-exactly
[…]
What we do not know is if this virus is engineered to have a long-range health impact due to the apparently spliced in HIV components. If so, this needs to be a long-term isolation plan.
Virtual work on the Internet seems like the only plausible form of work going forward other than a local isolated village (of devout Christians) economy if such can materialize.
Let’s keep an eye on the developments so we an determine if these thoughts are an overreaction, but I doubt it.
It’s Just Time.
There eventually comes a time where bunker mentality is actually the correct stance.
[…]
I haven’t had enough sleep and free time to dig into the math.
But if the R0 is ~4, then of course the exponential explosion of new infections is outpacing the deaths so thus the estimates of < 3% fatality rate are probably too low, just as they were too low when SARS first spread.
It appears SARS has been spliced with HIV also.
Every person has their confirmation biases based on their erroneous worldview:
- Religion is bat shit insane
- Jesus is fiction
- Zionist puppet masters are fiction
- Data driven science is absolute truth
- All conspiracy theories are false, including any facts about Armstrong’s case and the Magnitsky Act.
- 9/11 was promulgated by 19 guys who knew how to fly camels but not airplanes.
[…]
Also I predicted this many years ago. I am not lying.
I remember I read something many years ago about alleged experiments to splice HIV with an influenza-like virus and spreading it initially by bats.
The Zionists have been working on this for a long time. Just as they were working on Bitcoin for a long time.
They are fulfilling Revelation. That is their role to play.
Of course most who read this will ignore and think it is “bat shit insane.” They will receive their education in the hard way unfortunately for them.
[…]
Exactly as predicted in Revelation.
God will not punish humanity for forsaking his Son.
All of you non-Christians will not only die, but you burn in Hell eternally. Repent while you still can. Seriously.
I remember how I felt when I was suffering from a perforated ulcer. The feeling was I wished I could die so I could get some relief from the pain (they refused morphine in the Philippines at that time).
You will wish you could die, but you will never die. You bet for a drop of water on the tip of your tongue but it will never come.
This is not a joke. You think your logic is absolute? Again dig into the theories of the universe and you will realize we can never explain existence universally. I have covered this many times in my blogs.
[…]
The authorities probably realize the truth. They are probably trying to prevent a panic.
Sell real estate immediately. Economic devastation and collapse is directly ahead once people realize how bad this virus is. Unless the early dire estimates and projections are wrong. But I doubt it.
[…]
I am getting ready to comment about that. Looks like the bowls of the plagues are being poured exactly as predicted in Revelation. This virus is likely to have hidden long-term ramifications to immunity eventually causing open sores on the body and long suffering miserable death. It will not kill everyone immediately. It will kill over decades perhaps as it slowly turns into an AIDS like infection. The long-term death rate will be near to 100%. This is the dream of the Zionists. They wanted to be able to spread HIV by air droplets instead of sex. Remember George Carlin also warned about this in the video Save the Planet (Earth Day), ”hmmm viruses, they seem to be vulnerable to viruses, now what if we made one that can be transmitted sexually so they become afraid to procreate…” I can visualize the entire video nearly word-by-word in my mind complete with imagery. This is the way my IQ used to work before I acquired liver disease.
[…]
Trump’s actions today to quarantine certain individuals Watch: White House Holds Coronavirus Public Briefing may temporarily slow down the advance of the virus into the USA, but the cat is already out of the bag. It will be impossible prevent the pandemic from eventually gaining a foothold in every nation on earth. Eventually the USA will end up with a full blown pandemic, because it only requires a few contagious to slip through to seed the pandemic. The USA by not quarantining all inbound international travelers will ultimately fail to contain the pandemic. Mark my word. Btw, this is the reason that Americans need to return home asap, before eventually all inbound international travel is quarantined due to increasing spread of the pandemic in other nations outside of China.
[…]
"They All Knew!" - Chinese Furious At Virus-Fighting Officials Who Lied About Human Transmission:
Instead of embracing transparency, Beijing back in December arrested several researchers for "spreading false rumors" about the severity of the outbreak. Of course, their warnings have since been realized.
CNN Is Angry That Too Many White People Are Trying To Stop The Coronavirus Spreading
Perhaps even more significant than the economic impact, will be the political and social order destabilization effects, assuming 60 million will be infected in the USA by 2022 with 1.5 to 6 million dead just in the USA alone. Not only could this cause hordes people to go berserk (and for example try to assassinate Trump as this lady who crashed a gate at Mar-A-Lago may have been attempting to do today), but if the dead are predominantly among the elderly then this will shift the political demographics of the USA to the youth who are more radicalized, especially as the stagflation and rising interests rates decimates them as they are up to their ears in (student, car, and credit card) debt.
The housing market prices could start declining precipitously as soon as next year, much sooner than I had originally expected. Homelessness and vagrancy could spread precipitously. Remember what begins in California spreads to the rest of the nation — it’s now legal to defecate in the middle of the road in San Francisco.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/185860/number-of-all-hospital-beds-in-the-us-since-2001/
Number of all hospital beds in the U.S. 1975-2017. Trends indicate that the overall number of hospital beds in the U.S. is decreasing. In 1975, there were about 1.5 million hospital beds in the U.S., but until 2017 the number dropped to just about 931 thousand.
Possibly we could end up with dying carcasses lying in the roads of the USA. And makeshift cremations along the side of the road by homeless. No, not the end of the world. But enough destabilization to really radicalize the politics of the nation. The revolutionary-social-justice minded youth will step in the power vacuum and seize control of the politics no later than 2033 if not much sooner.
[…]
And soon it will all come crashing down...this is going to be epic...
Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response:
As it improvises its way through a public health crisis, the United States has never been less prepared for a pandemic.