Great analysis. My take is that BTC will indeed dump after halving and I believe that will happen thanks to small mining pools and amateur miners that will not find mining it profitable anymore. One-two months after that the party will begin. Interesting but, as you said, unpredictable times ahead.
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Long term very bullish without a doubt. It's just that I'm skeptical to see a 'big dump'. It already happened.
My perspective here is that I see more risky being 'out' rather than 'in'.
Regards and thanks for the comment :)
It's definitely risky being out because nobody knows for sure what will happen. Considering that some have had the chance to buy it at $6,000 you're perfectly right.