4 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Now Retesting November Lows — $6.4K Next?
The following charts are an update to charts I posted in my prior comment post of this comment thread.
Click here to zoom and read my extensive and very important commentary about the following charts:
(click to zoom to source & to read commentary)
As of December 16, @filbfilb remains poised to reload bullish above $6k as he explained in his recent article Is Bitcoin Now Bullish or Bearish at $7K? Here’s the Scorecard:
- The [RSI] trend appears to be weakening to the downside but is too early to call bullish — neutral
- Volume has been decreasing since June — in a downtrend, this is typically viewed as bullish
- OBV has flattened out, illustrating that cumulative volume to the downside is losing momentum but currently no bullish divergences or breaks to the upside — neutral
Weekly OBV and RSI declines are decelerating or bottomed analogous to the second retest of the bottom support line in January 2019. Also volume is declining likely indicating waning bearish selling. The weak hands have nearly completed their capitulation. Maybe one more small leg down to shake the trees of the few remaining retards who sell the bottom.
Weekly Conclusion -2: Bearish
Overall, Bitcoin is up a significant amount year-on-year and, as such, it is not a surprise that long view moving averages are crossed bullish. Nevertheless, the momentum indicators in the RSI and MACD, which look at more recent price action, illustrate that momentum remains to the downside although it is starting to show signs of weakness. This weakening bearish momentum is also reflected in the declining volume.Overall, the weekly chart is conclusively bearish until there is a breakout in volume and a shift in price direction.
Bullish divergence in daily and 4-hour OBV with declining volume indicates a steady level of accumulation with declining dumping by panicked bears. The momentum is still bearish but weakening thus no massive surge lower seems plausible. A shake or two more of the trees to see which stranglers aren’t hodling tight and then should have a lurch up in bullish which should put an end to this 6 month correction.
Update: Peter Brandt tweeted the following (and somehow my tweet response linking to this post was deleted by Twitter but then later reappeared at a different url):
Bitcoin $BTC has apparently held at important support
Also note that Bitcoin bounced up significantly on Dec. 18 as I had expected 14 days ago when I mentioned the usual Bitcoin Santa Claus rally. In private emails, I had mentioned either Dec. 16 or 18 as date for a whiplash low and significant bounce that would likely be the bottom.
On Peter’s second chart above, note the similarity in structure of the pattern to the 2013 correction and then rocket launch into the ~$1200 ATH in late 2013. In my more recent blog Bitcoin to $80,000 before May 2020 and $1 billion by December 2020? I explained that’s why I’m expecting that rocket launch to kickoff in January.
Update #2: a new article How a Whale Crashed Bitcoin to Sub-$7,000 Overnight highlights both the PlusToken scam dumping which I had noted in my prior post in this thread @filbfilb had cited as a reason for the selloff. Also this new article has identified the same pattern I see for targeting the bottom:
Another more article Bitcoin's Correction May Soon End has more detailed analysis of these points:
The mainstream media even picked up on this thesis in BusinessInsider’s article Bitcoin's slump may have been driven by a billion-dollar Ponzi scheme, miners cashing out, and a volume slump.
Bitcoin Price Weekly Candle Closed as a Pin Bar — So What Comes Next?
Click and read the above linked Cointelegraph follow-up from @filbfilb.
The following charts are an update to charts I posted in my prior comment post of this comment thread.
I have drawn some scenarios for the price action I expect between now and the entire year of 2020.
Click here to zoom and read my
important commentaryabout the following charts:(click to zoom to source & to read commentary)
Click here to zoom my update and read my
important commentaryabout the following charts:(click to zoom to source & to read commentary)
Click here to zoom my update:
(click to zoom to source)
Sold LTC for BTC. Looks like LTC/USD may rally to
$70and LTC/BTC to0.0071, thus BTC/USD to$9800within a week. Seems to be more or less following the projected price movements I had sketched weeks ago as annotated on the linked charts.GRS/BTC has underperformed and sliding into my worst case scenario. It lags and then when LTC peaks, then there may be some rotation of speculation into GRS. How low will GRS/BTC decline before it rockets up?
BTC/USD appears to have broken up out of the flag declining channel correction, which it had been in since the
$13.9kpeak is in since late June 2019. This is incredibly bullish if true as annotated on my chart, with an assault on$13.9klikely in February or March. Resistance could become support and a retest of confluence of support around$8kis possible, possibly after a lurch up to$9.8k. The highest overhead resistance line (which served as the$13.9kresistance) is now~$25kand rising to~32kin April.Another way of annotating as shown in one of my charts above is a bullish wedge still intact with the apex closing in first week of March. This scenario means a retest of support between
$7kand$8kis plausible in February. And the topmost overhead resistance will be~$40kby the end of April.UPDATE: I’m favoring the following interpretation of BTC/USD with a dip back below
$8kbefore breakout of wedge/flag:(click to zoom)
Also appears to me LTC/BTC will decline to
0.060–0.063range, then surge in February/March to~0.095. I still think there will be a surge of GRS/BTC to~0.00003–0.00004. Thus a 50 – 100% gain in BTC in these altcoins remaining on next surge. At that point, I would want to be entirely out of altcoins until after the May 14 halving at least, with the possible exception of BSV.Regarding the posited SegWit donations attack at the May 14 halving event, Craig Wright claims to have received access to the ~1 million BTC Tulip Trust funds:
https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-craig-wrights-courier/
I have seen you mention groestlcoin as a good coin before. But why is this coin good? I don't see what is so special about it? what separates it from other coins?
Based on the findings of a new blog Bitcoin Preparing to Rocket Launch? I just posted, I have become bearish on altcoins after February 10. We have a small window between now and perhaps end of this month, for altcoins to make their final rallies as priced in BTC.
Given the conclusion posited my said new blog that January 18, 2020 corresponded to April 2, 2019 in terms of a repeating fractal pattern, then GRS/BTC peaked before April 2, 2019 and so has already done so for this cycle also. I now only expect to make a similar relief rally as it did after April 2, 2019. Proportionally that would take it back up to 100 and 200 DMA which are currently standing at
~0.000024. I’m a seller there and won’t be coming back.The reasons I originally was interested in GRS is made some tremendous gains in BTC with it only the rallies before April 2, 2012.
UPDATE Jan 30, 2020: I did sell GRS at
0.000024as predicted, but now I am repurchasing below0.00002. I originally was uncertain whether altcoins were going to moon after the halving thus relative to the impostor Bitcoin Core declining to ~$0 price as the posited SegWit donations attack proceeds at that juncture. Now it appears the mooning will be right now in February. I wrote the following update in email yesterday: