I think you are right except for one problem: If you hold your assets out of Bitcoin in any other altcoin (not dollars) you'll lose value like you said (altcoins are losing value). I'm just going to keep my dry powder in Bitcoin because the dollar transactions on the exchanges are sooo slow. That way all my bases are covered. I'll capture any Bitcoin upside but I'll be able to move fast into altcoins after the fork.
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