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If you are a long-term investor, you must look at several macro-factors including evolution of decentralized technologies that would determine the price of BTC in the mid to long term. This paper might enlighten you on this issue: https://steemit.com/cryptoassets/@orch/intergalactic-money-the-deep-impact-of-a-self-evolving-infinitely-scalable-general-purpose-realtime-unforkable-public-blockchain

You're preaching to the converted, but thanks anyway, my research never ends. I'll give your paper a read.