I feel you analysis has great merit.
However, there is one piece that is very different.
Gold futures had the advantage over gold of not needing storage.
Bitcoins by themselves, do not need storage and so it comes down to how easily you can move in and out of bitcoin vs moving in and out of futures.
Now, futures and banks are all set up. They are in bed with each other, and until death do they part.
The bitcoin - bank thing is spotty at best.
If it was solid, the futures market would be in trouble. One slip up by the futures market, like a price freeze as bitcoin gapped up, would have people thinking, why don't i just buy bitcoin.