Hodl your horses on ETF and halvening hopium

The expected bitcoin ETF and for-sure halvening are bullish for bitcoin for sure. And, count me in on the excitement here.

I wrote about the ETF recently, here saying it's coming.
I wrote here that the ETF will "open bitcoin" to tons of legacy many held by many, many people who will easily be able to put their money into BTC via legacy financial tools.
I wrote about the 2020 halving back then, here saying to temper enthusiasm.

Despite reason for enthusiasm nowadays, let's keep it real and sober things a bit.

First, regarding the halving or halvening, my thoughts are twofold: (1) any price adjustment will be baked in already because this is such a known, predictable event. The last halving was May of 2020 and the price did not skyrocket then (see chart below). Expecting an overnight, rocket launch green candle seems unrealistic to me again now. (2) however, long term, this will be bullish for bitcoin. How can it not? Lower bitcoin emission is simple "tight money" monetary policy...deflation (i.e., increased value).

_{The last halving was May 11, 2020}

Secondly, regarding the ETF, this seems trickier to flesh out as to what might happen. (Because, well, nothing like it has ever happened before.) My best guess...the day of or after the expected ETF approval announcement, there will be a price spike due to exuberance, then a correction. Like New Years Eve jubilation and New Years Day hangover. But, then, I feel there will be growth going forward.

Summary

The ETF and halvening are both bitcoin bullish. But, don't be discouraged if we're not on the moon the next day. Patience.

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