.gif)
‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.’ - George Santayana (1863 – 1952)
It’s been a pretty brutal week again, with bitcoin threatening to retest that recent low, just beneath $6,000. In the event, the low was $6,427, and we have seen a sharp bounce of $1,000 in recent hours. The Death Cross occurred, as expected, but doesn’t seem to have dented the market much (as we warned, it’s not a great indicator for bitcoin).
We wanted to come back to the analysis we first posted three weeks ago, because – so far, anyway – it continues to play out like clockwork. We’ve updated the chart that superimposes the aftermath of 2013’s bitcoin bubble with the aftermath of 2017’s bubble, below:
So let’s take a closer look and draw attention to a few points.
The correlation is close – freakishly close. We don’t have a good explanation for this, other than that human psychology remains the same. However, the degree to which specific bounces and brief rallies match within the overall downtrend is staggering.
The timeline remains the same: the pace of decline this time is around three times as fast as last time. What took well over a year from the 2013 high will take less than 6 months in 2018. Assuming that everything continues to play out on this timescale, we’ll be done in another month.
If that happens, then the beginning of May will offer some exceptional bargains for bitcoin.
Before that, we might well get a brief rally back above $8,000 before the falls continue.
However, we need to sound a note of caution: whilst the main part of the downtrend matches extraordinarily well, the beginning does not. The run-up in price was faster in 2013. It’s fair to expect the model to come unstuck at the end as well. The past is not a bad predictor for the future, but it’s not perfect!
The ‘capitulation’ candle on 6 February raises a question about where the Double Bubble model will cease to be useful. That day saw unprecedented trading volumes and a very convincing floor put in. $6,000 will be a tough nut to crack. It’s possible that was the bottom – and that yesterday’s fall to $6,400 confirmed that. Unfortunately, we will only know for sure in hindsight.
If the model holds to the end (and that’s a big ‘if’ for the reasons above), we can expect a brief low around $4,000, a return to $6,000 and a period of stability before the next move upwards.
The immediate picture for bitcoin will become a lot clearer over the next month or so. We believe that patience and cool thinking will pay extremely well at this point.
Red hot news, scorching wit and searing opinion pieces from Crypto Inferno.
Join us on
Telegram: https://t.me/crypto_inferno
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoInferno/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CryptoInferno_
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CryptoInferno/
In the first place, it don't matter actually , if you're a long term investor it's always a good news to you, and if you're a short term investor it's a bad news for you.
Long term investors have nothing to worry about, obviously. This, just like in 2014 is the time to be buying. Soaking up from the impatient ones. Bitcoin will be going sideways again before bubble number 5.
I agree short term investors are going to have to wait...multiple months, unless you are shorting bounces ;)
Cryptos may have bottomed out in the short term and are getting slightly bullish. Bitcoin needs to cross back up above $7.8k through $8k and Ethereum back up to $500. It is very interesting how when the market was at it's peak, people would have begged for these prices. Interestingly, that brings us to another point, which is how to profit during a sideways market.
i posted out lists of undervalued cryptos. So many were oversold and down from their highs. Litecoin (LTC) was around $115. Right now, it is at about $134 for a 16% gain and it is up 12% day over day. Steem (STEEM) is up about 30% in the last few days and up 25% day over day at about $2.17 right now. It was at about $1.58 when we mentioned it last week. It was even up to $2.45 for a bit yesterday. When the market bottomed out, every single crypto we mentioned is up right now since that time.
So, you can do the math for how much you could profit depending on how much you put into the trade. Also, you could sell today or see if the market continues rebounding this week, sell later, and rebuy in on another low. The goal is to build your funds and allocate some funds to longer term holds. Right now is not the time to be married to every crypto in your portfolio unless you are fine to sit back and hold for the longer term. If you have the liquidity for that, then, great. As we've said before we have a mix of long term and mid term holds as well as trading in and out of the highs and lows of the market bouncing around.
just signup get $10 http://teensmakecash.com/?ref=akankah
instant withdraw to paypal
I am signing up, how much do you earn and is it legit ?
It's fake for sure
until now i get $85
If you get paid into paypal than it's good enough, else just a useless site. Let me know if you do get paid via paypal and atleast upvote my post. I registered using your referral .
ok bro. i need 2 signup more to get withdraw,
bro join me in sphere there much people earn dollar https://www.sphere.social/hello/users/view/33842
"Purchase the plunge and HODL," said Bitcoin bull Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisor, on CNBC's post-showcase demonstrate "Quick Money" on Wednesday.
"The state of mind in crypto is ghastly right now," the regarded Wall Street examiner said. "Long-lasting holders are stressed in light of the fact that they have huge picks up and they're stressed over falling costs. Yet, Bitcoin is an incredible store of significant worth. It works extremely well. It's sort of exhausting, in light of the fact that it's not the most recent and most energizing venture. Be that as it may, it additionally is a standout amongst the most fluid approaches to get introduction to crypto."
In a Wednesday note, Lee expounded on the 10 greatest days for Bitcoin every year, contrasting them with the conventional market: "Market timing is by and large demoralized in customary value contributing. In the event that a speculator passed up a major opportunity for the 10 greatest days (for S&P 500 [an American securities exchange index]) every year, the annualized return drops to 5.4% (ex-10 best), from 9.2%. As such, the case for purchase and hold in values is the open door cost of passing up a major opportunity for the 10 greatest days."
So if a financial specialist was to pass up a great opportunity for the 10 greatest days for Bitcoin, the annualized return drops 25% yearly, Lee composes. By and large, Bitcoin was during each time with the avoidance of the main 10 day increases, as indicated by Fundstrat information. 2017, for example, had an aggregate of 12 days speaking to the entire year return of BTC.
In any case, the investigation for the S&P 500's execution backpedals to 1954, while the nine-day normal for the entire year increases of Bitcoin just backpedals to 2013. This implies it is indistinct whether authentic examination on the decades-old securities exchange is suitable for the much more unstable digital money that is just 9 years of age.
Bitcoin is exchanging at the breakeven cost of mining, at about USD 8,000, in light of a model by Fundstrat, Bloomberg included. "We see positive impetuses for Bitcoin later in 2018, including the illumination of administrative obstacles," Fundstrat investigators wrote in the note.
Likewise, Bitcoin's present low offering value, gives speculators who aren't comfortable with cryptographic money an opportunity to think about the business, as opposed to bouncing in feet in the first place, CNBC revealed refering to Lee. "As terrible as it feels at this moment, Bitcoin has significantly more upside," he said..
come back is always real.
Nice post good work big thumbs up and a resteem from my side.
Hey @crypto.inferno I am Neil the chief of the @steemit-helpers group. Today I create a post on my blog is about e-commerce
You may can visit me and you can grow your business by following this post contain video here:
https://steemit.com/e-commerce/@steemit-helpers/e-commerce-content-marketing-5-ways-to-get-started-asap
Cheers,
Neil
I think your model is pretty decent. But the recent crash down to 4,000 came, likely, as a result of the binance FUD that was circulating around today about a hack. Further, we are in completely new territory when it comes to adoption and mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin and crypto. There's really no telling what will happen in the future. I'd like to believe it will eventually reach a bottom and then rise back to new highs. But noone knows.
I will say that your current model and prediction that the low will be about 4k is sort of inline with an academic article that was released about a week ago. It theorized that Bitcoin was 4x overvalued and could drop to around 1,000 to 2,000 dollars. While your estimate was higher it's not all that much higher.
Nice work.
summary of the academic article claiming Bitcoin was overvalued at 8k. https://steemit.com/life/@cryptodivision/research-paper-suggests-bitcoin-is-nearly-4x-overvalued
Nice post, thanks for the TA. But to be honest; I've seen technical annalists predict almost every foreseeable or imaginable future for differing timescales. And they sometimes get it right, sometimes not. I do see the value of TA and I do heed their words, yours also, but in the end nobody can really know what will happen even 5 minutes from now in this ultra volatile marketplace.
I wrote a little article myself, nothing technical because I'm not an analist like you, but just some general thoughts on the news lately and where I see prices going and why. I'd love to hear your opinion on it, if you have a few spare minutes: Market Manipulation or Price Suppression? ... Or none of the above?
Again, thanks for your work!
Very informative article, thanks for sharing. I've smashed the upvote button for you!
If you are looking to get hold of some crypto without investing or mining, look into https://www.crowdholding.com. They are a co-creation platform were you get rewarded for giving feedback to crypto startups on the platform. You can earn Crowdholding's token as well as DeepOnion, ITT, Smartcash and many other ERC-20 tokens.
So we plan on seeing $4000?
Pretty much on point. I also came to the similar conclusion. If you like to read it, I had written about it here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pqbd/fractals-death-cross-and-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-2018
price bubble is only way to save cryptocurrency from dying
Bitcoin stabilizing is something everyone speculates from Morgan Stanley to writing sites. We may never know. The only thing that I would like to see is how much Steem is going to skyrocket to. Especially, people like us writing out there chances are much. :)
Wow i know about bitcoin but now i know very clearly about it thanks
The correlation is definitely there, but the market has changed. I believe that the recivery will be significantly swifter, especially with the introduction of greatly increased institutional funds. A the moment crypto is fighting against its natural upward trend. I have spoken about this at length in my own posts over the last three days.
The fact is that it is oversold and trying to make a bear market out of a bull one, it will fail. This dip is temporary and the recovery will be swift and powerful. Very good times are ahead, stock up on the right coins while they are so ridiculously cheap!
thanks for the info... good reading
nice pic just locking follow my id i will back you
I agree with patience and strategic planning guide. Anyway, even if its way down below at one time, it does give the opportunity for the other abandons to grow potentially before it goes back up again. But to fail is not an option !
The comparison with other asset bubbles is freakish. I have put my views here https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@maxxxks/bitcoin-volatility-and-market-cycles
No matter, what happens, 2018 looks to be a defining year for bitcoin!
Yeah crypto currency is doing weird things rn
5 followers, no one following, 5 posts and only 22 comments on this posts and your upvotes rises to $250? Whats the secret?
a 4k bitcoin! crazy times
Informative and entertaining post for sure. I agree that those that look at investing in anything, unless they have endless time and efforts to spend...should look at the long-term of their investments. I never called my stockbroker after a couple days to see if my AT&T stock went up and would afford me a Lambo...so why do we all hope that there will be some big movement with crypto that will make us millionaires? I mean, the chances are slim that you will become an overnight millionaire after you find a crypto that increases in value by thousands of percent! Long term HODL...have fun watching the drama in between the highs and lows! Thanks for the info! -Respect
You are excellent! Your post is very helpful for our stay on the steemit platform
Very simple, governments/banks shut down asia+china, the price went down again, banks will invest cheaper, to win win win later, the price will go up again when banks are ready
Enjoy btc
Purchase the plunge and HODL," said Bitcoin bull Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisor, on CNBC's post-showcase demonstrate "Quick Money" on Wednesday.
"The state of mind in crypto is ghastly right now," the regarded Wall Street examiner said. "Long-lasting holders are stressed in light of the fact that they have huge picks up and they're stressed over falling costs. Yet, Bitcoin is an incredible store of significant worth. It works extremely well. It's sort of exhausting, in light of the fact that it's not the most recent and most energizing venture. Be that as it may, it additionally is a standout amongst the most fluid approaches to get introduction to crypto."
In a Wednesday note, Lee expounded on the 10 greatest days for Bitcoin every year, contrasting them with the conventional market: "Market timing is by and large demoralized in customary value contributing. In the event that a speculator passed up a major opportunity for the 10 greatest days (for S&P 500 [an American securities exchange index]) every year, the annualized return drops to 5.4% (ex-10 best), from 9.2%. As such, the case for purchase and hold in values is the open door cost of passing up a major opportunity for the 10 greatest days."
So if a financial specialist was to pass up a great opportunity for the 10 greatest days for Bitcoin, the annualized return drops 25% yearly, Lee composes. By and large, Bitcoin was during each time with the avoidance of the main 10 day increases, as indicated by Fundstrat information. 2017, for example, had an aggregate of 12 days speaking to the entire year return of BTC.
In any case, the investigation for the S&P 500's execution backpedals to 1954, while the nine-day normal for the entire year increases of Bitcoin just backpedals to 2013. This implies it is indistinct whether authentic examination on the decades-old securities exchange is suitable for the much more unstable digital money that is just 9 years of age.
Bitcoin is exchanging at the breakeven cost of mining, at about USD 8,000, in light of a model by Fundstrat, Bloomberg included. "We see positive impetuses for Bitcoin later in 2018, including the illumination of administrative obstacles," Fundstrat investigators wrote in the note.
Likewise, Bitcoin's present low offering value, gives speculators who aren't comfortable with cryptographic money an opportunity to think about the business, as opposed to bouncing in feet in the first place, CNBC revealed refering to Lee. "As terrible as it feels at this moment, Bitcoin has significantly more upside," he said..
Great stuff. while you at it get your hands on free cryptos woohoo
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@banditqueen/alt-coins-2018-free-faucets-update
Nice interpretation and insight on what's poppin' in the land of crypto. i agree with others who have posted that (for me) being a long term holder is the best approach. Perhaps if I had more time and funds to play with I would be one of those people who buy and sell as a 'day-trader,' but for now I try to use spare fiat to buy Bitcoin and Litecoin with a little bit of crypto trading on Binance. I'm hoping that we see some nice bubbling for a little bit with some true gains in volume and value in the summer and end of the fall. Either way I have high hopes for the adoption and growth of cryptocurrency and the use of blockchain. -Respect
the article is use in your post it is great..amazing post with good article..I like this post.. that is important for us.thanks.
This make me know more clearly... Tq
You got a 19.23% upvote from @upmewhale courtesy of @crypto.inferno!
Earn 100% earning payout by delegating SP to @upmewhale. Visit http://www.upmewhale.com for details!
You got a 17.95% upvote from @postpromoter courtesy of @crypto.inferno!
Want to promote your posts too? Check out the Steem Bot Tracker website for more info. If you would like to support the development of @postpromoter and the bot tracker please vote for @yabapmatt for witness!