This is all about Bitcoin right now. BTC will trade sideways for a bit, some will panic sell BTC and Alts and whales will accumulate both cheap. I have been trading since the first exchanges and these patterns always repeat, all the older traders and holders should know this by now. The good news is that this is a technical update so we even have dates for what will be happening so this is all fairly easy to predict, as I see it.
- Before this date (July 21) all the weak hands are basically out, those that do not understand the tech or are afraid because of some random twitter personality, and the like.
July 21 — Segwit2x is due to be released and presumably all participants to the New York Agreement will run it.
- This happens and BTC should start an uptrend, look at LTC signaling and even the software releases. I suspect much will be priced in by this time as it is not some surprise.
July 26 — BIP91 should activate. At this point, all blocks are required to signal for Segwit (BIP141) or they will be orphaned off the network.
- Once it activates this should be more bullish for BTC. By this time it might even be somewhat stable as weak hands are out and other people have picked up cheap coins.
August 23 — This is around when we can expect block 481824, which is when Segwit should activate. From this block on, Segwit transactions will be legal on the network. This also sets the activation date for BIP102 on Segwit2x to block 494784 (exactly 144*90 blocks later)
This I think will be the peak (for the moment) of BTC around this time, should break ATH I would venture, then a drop. Again, opinion, but based on price movements for even the chance of this happening I see no reason why it would not happen when it actually does. Look at LTC charts around May 10 to compare.
BTC after the ATH will stop rising at whatever price it reaches, and then Alts take off again and we should have the biggest rally we have ever seen. Sure, anything is possible, but this is my opinion and prediction.
Note: August 1st is meaningless, that date is being shared around and is related to UASF that does not have miners support, don't worry about it, Segwit is already happening and that was the key reason for UASF, although I believe that did help Segwit 2x gain support.
Source for specific dates: https://medium.com/@jimmysong/segwit2x-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2mb-hard-fork-27749e1544ce
Resteemed this wisdom ;)
Weak hands are the devil's playthings, or something like that.
Solid analysis as always. Thanks!
We like the weak hands. They create further discounts and ultimately help to progress the market to new highs. Now, if we could just get them to do it precisely when we want them to, that would be great. ;-)
Great post
Thank you for the informative post. I'd be curious for @crypto-investor 's view of this, too.
bitcoin is looking forward to upgrade for effective handling of transaction. So we should wait for that. As the difficulties come to bitcoin, some bug or fault might found sometimes then bitcoin always take a positive action toward these bugs and fault. So keep calm it will reduce the time of waiting for confirmations as well tx fees then you can happily use bitcoin fast transactions.
Yes, there is always some risk, but I think the risks are greatly over stated. Segwit is Segwit, they just changed how it activates and increasing block size has been done in countless alts, so this is not something radical. That would also not happen till November, if it happens. Segwit has been the sticking point and that looks like it is going through. 2-2.6x more capacity, so a lot more users can use BTC at once.
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Great artcle ! Thank you for clearing up the air ! 🙂 👍
Thanks! Do you recommend to hold alts or completely change to BTC?
Great post. I've always valued your insight on Facebook. I'm glad to find you on Steemit too.
Thank you for everything. Learning a lot from you the past month
Just saw your link on Facebook CCC. Glad to be following you here too!
Thanks for sharing :)