Bitcoin dominance is a matter of perception rather than reality, so who knows what happens with it. I'm sticking with my initial idea that it recovers to 50%, but this crash and lack of recovery in dominance came as a surprise to me. I've mentioned previously that Lightning could one of the catalysts that sends dominance back up.
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I might have not been listening carefully enough... It just always seemed to me that anyone who mentioned Lightning didn't really take the possibility of it actually working seriously. Now I realize it's not a question of it working or not, it's the question of people trusting it or not: as it is with everything else within this weird market.