Ok, so I used some finacial modeling for the previous cycle 2020-2024, looking backwards and with some help of gpt, what is the safe leverage you can use and survive the whole cycle.
For BTC it is in the range of 15% to 20% ... for ETH bellow 10% ... that is a leverage of x1.15 for BTC, and for ETH x1.1 .... for any other crypto basicly if you use any amount of leverage you will be liquidated .... and on exchanges the default is like x5, and x2 is considered low :) ...
Hm yeah but leverage isn't for long-term moves either.
The APR on these loans isn't exactly great.
Unless of course you are providing liquidity to the shorts and earning yield through the funding rate with a hedged position.
But yeah of course if Bitcoin has an 80% correction you'll get liquidated no matter what number you pick.
No leveraged position can survive a situation where oracles start feeding completely inaccurate information (except by pure luck). And that has happened during this event in some cases. That's one more reason to avoid leverage, no matter how small.