First of all, I appreciate the work you've put into analyzing this situation, as well as sharing that information.
But.
Imagine a scenario where this massive drop in BTC price (as well as pretty much any other crypto with it) is not a natural occurrence.
What if the market is influenced by someone who does not follow the same rules as any of us? With massive amounts of money, as well daily exposure of opinions as facts - you could create this "collapsing bubble effect" rather easily, no?
- Dump some millions worth of coin.
- Get some professors on the news saying "SEE?! It's collapsing, it's a ponzi I tells yas!"
- Keep dumping coin.
- People follow your dumping in panic, creating an avalanche.
- ???
- Profit.
The timing seems rather interesting as well. Looking at everything that happened in december.
It just kind of bothers me that you are taking bitcoin as Yet-Another-Stock to trade. Which it is not. And it shouldn't follow some pricing pattern derived from pure, cold math and charts.
Truth is - none of us can predict the future - but it becomes more tangible when we perpetuate this idea that we can.
The value of bitcoin is what people say it is.
- If majority wants bitcoin to be worth 20k$, then it will be.
- Or it will collapse.
- Or stay at 10.5-11.5k$.
It is what people believe it is.
And bitcoin isn't even a stock to trade.
Which brings me to a selfless plug for my first post on this platform. It is called "Bitcoin is worth less (only) if you are."
TL;DR
I know what you're saying makes sense in your context. But is it something you should support and promote?
Let me tell you about this rabbit hole that is real as well.
There is a 99% chance there is market manipulation you are correct, but at the same time there are plenty of people pushing up from the opposite side.
The biggest issue here is the maturity and liquidity of the market. It doesn't take a whole lot of money to move the price quite dramatically on a single exchange. And as far as Bitcoin performing like a traditional stock or asset, again, you are correct- it doesn't follow the same rules nearly at all. However, the underlying mathematics and psychology behind free markets make price action more predictable, not 100% accurate obviously.
My articles are opinion pieces for entertainment. Take my analysis with a grain of salt please.
Sorry if my comment seemed to be opposing.
Rather than trying to say that what you wrote is wrong, I just wanted to express my point of view that I think needs to be expressed as well.
It seems there is very little talk about the fact that Bitcoin is not a stock - it is not an asset made to be exchanged and used in our monetary system - but rather, it is a concept for a design to replace our current, stagnated, monetary system.
And even if Bitcoins price would drop to zero - by what it has accomplished, it should be regarded as a massive success none the less.
And that doesn't mean that I think what you say is wrong, or that I don't appreciate the fact that your share your insight and/or opinion of what's happening. On the contrary. I'd just like to direct attention of people to the fact that there is more to it.
It is the faith of people in the idea of cryptocurrency and the need of it that brought Bitcoin to this point. And I don't see that faith going anywhere anytime soon.
It is a massive hype and manipulation that follows it. If more people realized that - more people would simply not care about current drop, and would see it as an opportunity to get Bitcoin for "cheap" again. This would create a chain of events.
The drop in price would not be as significant, and the price would rise more rapidly again. Which would reassure the faith in it to those who are in doubt.
And most importantly - it would prove that Bitcoin is not just a fad.
Now, that would be a treat, now that Bitcoin is in futures market.
It would most certainly shut a lot of people up, who should not really open their mouths in the first place.
LOL like Jamie Dimon? I'm sure he is having fun with egg on his face right now haha!
Sure. Like Jamie Dimon.
Credit for the image to @dollarvigilante
As more and more people begin to accumulate crypto the supply contracts. There are plenty HODLing on and these are the people the big Whales want to flush out. Hodl FirmI SAY!!