So after all the FUD that went on in January bulls will return to the market in the following months. Crashes like these happen only a few times a year, similar to what happened last year (China FUD). These are good times to buy and have confidence that in the big scheme of things prices will rise, as half of trillion dollars market cap for cryptos is like having some spare change in the pocket. Forex market daily trading volume is 7 trillion. How much do you reckon trading volume for digital currencies will be in the future, considering the accessibility of the market and the global scale it can reach? That's why 49225$ for one BTC by the begging of May sounds optimal to me, and here is my Technical Analysis from which I am drawing that conclusion.
This correction has tested the 150 Day EMA which provided a strong support both now and in the past
Looking at some trendlines it is clear that previous resistance was broken and it was now retested as support.
Elliot Waves count shows the end of ABCDE correction that formed a falling wedge. Wedges are known as a multiple price wave reversal pattern. When the pattern completes, and the price breaks out of the wedge, it is usually in the opposite direction the wedge was pointed. This is why it is called a reversal pattern. For example, if a wedge is angled downward —called a "falling wedge"—the price will often break above the top of the pattern and rally.
Notices the bull trap? Did you fall for it? I lowered my B wave below the closing point of the candles because on the higher timeframe you would just see the wick.
And now onto the price projection.
Combining trendlines, Fibo levels and Elliot Waves count we can project the future price action, which brings us to the target price of approximately 49225$ in the first week of May. As the Elliot Waves theory suggests markets are fractal in nature, so 12345 count from the third picture is the sub wave of the wave 1, and ABCDE correction is the wave 2, which leads me to believe that wave 3 is coming anytime now and that this was just a calm before the storm.
If you agree or disagree with my Technical Analisis I would like to hear your reasons why, so make sure to leave a comment below, as I always like to stress test my forecasts.
If this was helpful and encouraging make sure to upvote so that others can benefit from it as well.
Cheers, and happy trading :)
Interesting analysis. I’ve read quite a few other projections that this correction will finish in the $8000 area before it’s over. Hodling until then when I might load up further. Look forward to seeing you at $49k my friend! Roll on the darling buds of May...
Even if the price goes to 8k I'd expect it to be just a short bounce and a retest. If you exited the market, I would strongly suggest using dollar cost averaging for entry, just to be safe.
Agreed - it should bounce from there so should produce a good buying opportunity
check this out though:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@drumsta/crypto-market-cap-forming-head-and-shoulders-pattern-are-the-markets-going-do-go-down-further
I hope your right. I'd definitely like to see it test new highs by summer...
Yes, me too. I've been hesitant to buy more even though it is low right now because I've been worried it's never going to grow as much as originally anticipated.
I wouldnt say we are out of the woods yet. Still people are a little bit concerend and I think we will stay around the 11000 Dollar mark for a little bit longer. After that though I am also bullish on bitcoin :-D Good analisis!
My like you have :-D
ALM
@leserge
Agree here, still lots of weak hands that bought much higher and will to look to sell to breakeven...
Exactly!
And I know from past experience goofing around with small trades, the second I get out to break even, that's precisely when it takes off. 🤔
We are not, some suggest another low before the rise, so be aware, but in my mind, everything below 11k is a great entry point.
110% on your side!
check this out:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@drumsta/crypto-market-cap-forming-head-and-shoulders-pattern-are-the-markets-going-do-go-down-further
Feel good stuff for the one's who believe :) I believe and appreciate your post! Time will tell but I don't believe at all that these markets are going anywhere but up! The herd is coming!
@haejin should follow you to learn how to properly use Elliot Waves to do a technical analysis.
hahah funny to hear this because I've read the exact same book on Elliot Waves that he is recommending :)
Excellent text, I agree with your Technical Analisis. :)
Thanks bobrock, I hope it plays out like I forecasted it :)
Thank you for this analysis! it does feel like we are getting close to the next wave upward. upvoted and resteemed
Thank you Stu very much appreciated :)
For anyone interested here is my new Technical Analisis, trading pair SALT/BTC
https://steemit.com/money/@drumsta/ta-salt-btc-price-about-to-burst-to-new-highs-342-profit-potential
more usage, less lambo!
I agree
$7000 is the point for (2) you should readjust your graph please @drumsta
Tone Vays also suggests the lower low to 7000$ but I don't believe that will happen, for the reasons and indicators stated in the text.
drop to 7k5 would have been textbook drop. But all have been waiting for this so it maybe dont happens like this drop to 5k never happend... only 5k4.
check this new article that I wrote providing the case for your argument
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@drumsta/crypto-market-cap-forming-head-and-shoulders-pattern-are-the-markets-going-do-go-down-further
What will be the catalyst for the surge in value? Do you expect governments to validate it as a recognized currency? Major international business to adopt it as a payment system? Or do you believe that market momentum of individual investors will drive the value up to such heights?
the second one
I wpuld prefer the first. Trade and increased volumes really help determine a fair and stable value. When its predominantly individuals who tend to HODL then the volumes are suppressed by speculators and value is far more eratic.
I can't see this happening unless the transaction times and fees drop a ton. Bring on the lightning network (aka Jesus is coming). In the meantime alts like Stellar (XLM) and even Litecoin and Ethereum are offering faster and cheaper transactions. A rising tide floats all boats, but it might be time to start thinking of BTC as more of an anchor.
You are thinking on the fundamental level, and in that terms, I agree. But consider that cryptos are just now becoming mainstream and that people who heard of crypto only know Bitcoin. This price prediction mostly depends on the new money coming into the market.
The future is bright!
Interesting analysis though I'm not normally into subjective TA but always curious what people think. Short term I'm bullish on BTC (and long term but it will have its ups and downs) as seen from my data below. I think that may be a little on the high side :) Check this out if it interests you: https://steemit.com/steem/@weilii/introducing-the-neux-oracle-steem-and-bitcoin-trade-signals Just started following you, would appreciate a follow back if my price analysis content interests you as well :)
It is possible but I think it will need to be fueled by good news. For example, scaling with lightning network gets mass adoption. I don’t see speculation alone taking BTC that high by May.
Good news will come like the correction was fueled by bad news.
Interesting and very detailed analysis. Thanks for sharing. I hope your forecast is correct. I'm curious, are you equally as bullish on Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum?
Bitcoin Cash not so much, Ethereum will in my mind be bigger than Bitcoin.
Agreed! I'm heavy on Ethereum, mining and hodling... love Ethereum! All the best.
Bitcoin will surge bigly it's just a matter of when.
So, you can safely say, that it would start upward from now onwards...
Very nice TA. How do you think taxation and regulation will affect this prediction? It's obvious that we are entering a market cap range that will force the IRS's hand.
Thank you for the post.
I don't know, we will just have to wait and see :)
Nooooo! I still haven't made lots of money to buy bitcoin, so that I can make lots of money, yet.
Very nice clear drawings on those charts.
And I agree with you on all those lines.
The only matter will be how much money is allowed to flow into bitcoin. If there is ever a break in the dike hold back people from investing in cryptos, then we may miss this 40,000 US$ forecast.
It could be like, one day bitcoin is trading for 10s, and the next day 100s.
It's highly unlikely that general public will somehow be prevented to participate in this market. Maybe in some countries, but not the whole world.
I know people who would like to buy more cryptos, but can't, because there are bottle-necks in converting paper to crypto. Banks only let you send so much money. Exchanges only allow so much money. And CCs only allow so much money.
So, right now, even before this next run-up, we are seeing a squeeze on capital flow.
Of course, ways around it are going to be found.
I feel one of the biggest will be exchanging physical property for cryptos.
bitcoin's price will be $40,000 or 1/3rd of a house.
Check out the second part of the argument
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@drumsta/crypto-market-cap-forming-head-and-shoulders-pattern-are-the-markets-going-do-go-down-further
An interesting post, @drumsta!
This is my forth major correction since being drawn into the market. My first was the Mt. Gox correction, if memory serves. Doubled down after my second; the correction from the, then, $1500-ish all time high.
But this correction seems different because Bitcoin is different. At least Bitcoin Cash is different with its expanded block size, while Bitcoin Core seems different in the realm of higher transaction fees and a slower validating network.
Not to suggest that BTC is going anywhere... just not sure what the privately patended Lightning Network will mean while moving forward.
Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and is a brand for itself.
Indeed it seemed like January was the month of alts and then everything just went heywire. There are some thing things happening with bitcoin this year and the first starting Feb 1st with the introduction of no fee trading for bitcoin on the robinhood app!
Dostum sen çok yaşa. Seninle aynı fikirdeyim. Litecoin mayıs da kaç olur? Analiz yapar mısın?
Price can easily get to $100,000 by the end of 2018!
Hey man! Great T.A. It's a very bold statement given the current situation, but I agree with you in the sense that it will rise sooner than people think.
I'll follow you so I dont lose the next one.
Keep up the great work and let's see if you are right, hope you are!!!!
I rarely post TA done it once before, but maybe all start to do it more often.
i've posted something new, check it out
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@drumsta/crypto-market-cap-forming-head-and-shoulders-pattern-are-the-markets-going-do-go-down-further
.
I am following you now :)
@drumsta, имаш глас, али свет не би био занимљив кад би се могао предвидети на тај начин :)
Рашће биткоин свакако, све док постоје тоалет-валуте, али овако прецизна предвиђања нису ништа друго него игра. Рашће не због Елиота, него због активације Лајтнинг мреже. Колико? Видимо се у мају :)
Naravno, slazem se u potpunosti. Doduse tehnicka analiza uvek bude opravdana neki katalizatorima ako li ne samo akcijom cene, ono na sta ja racunam da opravda ovu projekciju jeste ulaz novog kapitala na trziste, i generalni rast trzisne kapitalizacije.
What if North Korea is in flames? What if the FED starts their own coin and demands you use it? What if Israel attacks Iran and drags US into it? What if walmart accepts Bit-coin?
Then in my mind bitcoin will be over one million dollars as people will find it to be a safe haven running from unstable governments regimes :D
I was thinking 45k but more like March timeframe. I may be a bit rusty on the Elliott Wave analysis though.
Well there certainly has been a lot of fud lately in the media. meanwhile the technology is still evolving and getting better while the price is going down, might not be the very bottom but I've certainly been buying this week
I sure hope so! I need some green days again!
While I don't understand all of your analysis that's what we need to clear some of the fuzzy thinking on Bitcoin. Thanks for this hope to see more in the future.
Novice in terms of TA, happy for any critiques anyone may have. I see the correction as mostly over as well maybe some meandering before the price drives higher.
I had this correction as an ABCDE bull flag, the gold line is the 100 day MA and both RSI and MACD are starting to turn bullish.
no way we hit 20k the next 2 days how you draw it.
Looks pretty much bang on with the Chinese New Year, CME futures rollovers, extremely overbought conditions, Wallstreet accumulation and seasonals. This is a textbook correction pattern and really good buying opportunity all the way down to 8000.
If prices crash to 8000 and the CME futures are halted. The perfect bear trap would a sharp bounce off the lows thus trapping all the shorts to cover when the futures are reopened. Such a move will be absolutely spectacular! Just a hunch and I'll be watching closely.
check this new post making the opposite argument https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@drumsta/crypto-market-cap-forming-head-and-shoulders-pattern-are-the-markets-going-do-go-down-further
I am also bullish the next days... "safe" long entry was at 11698 finex. (tone canceled this already)
I dont like elliot-wave to much. The arrows you draw into the future are just random but maybe right.
Okay if you see pattern of solved correction in the past.
Its useful for buy and hodl. So just buy now average cost styl.
But as participant in the "long army" i cant see buy and sells.
Why you dont use log scale?
50k will be there in 2018 but may is i bit early i guess :-)
predicting timeframe is very problematic, and it doesn't matter the price target is important.
Time is more important for Tom Demark traders. You all talk down time... Your arrows are quite ok, but when i see other drawing an arrow to 20k within 2 days at current price level then they just know nothing about momentum.
Very good analysis. I think your 49k by end of May is alittle steep. maybe by end of year. A correction is meant to take the wind of the sails and i think it only starting to do that in the last week.
People are only now questioning crypto in general, people are only now realising that only 3-4 of the top 10 have a working product. It would be funny if some people didnt have there life saving in them.
Now is the time to really study the coins you are investing in.. checking there Github. Are the projects you have invested 1000s in actually working on there projects. Yes you can do that.
I have been shocked at what i have found. I will not mention any names cause im not here to spread FUD but i was shocked at some coins that havent done any programming in months. Yet there price keeps rising, where is that money going i wonder?
Yes, I think it is funny that people poo poo Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies. Then if you ask them to explain why, not one of them has an original thought on the mechanics of their answer. They are just parroting what MSM talking heads have to say. And as we know, these MSM clowns are beholden to their fiat currency creating masters and the petro-dollar.
What a bunch of kooks!
This is a great time to be alive. And it's great to be a part of Steemit, Dtube and Busy. I feel every post and every time I generate steem, I am engaging in battle against "The Borg" so to speak. Suppose "Death by 1000 cuts" also works on them.
(By The Borg, I do not mean the emerging weirdness that is cyborg potentiality, I mean people who 100% buy into the "machine" as described in Pink Floyd's The Machine. If you haven't heard that song, for the love of GOD, stop listening to hip hop and listen to a band play instruments).
Great analysis i think $9k -$12K i think @greenstar could be pretty close but either way it leave the curtain open for the next Altcoin to take The Stage. Its very cool to see how things play out. Privacy Coins are the New Sexy!#Ethos #Verge #Cloak #MoinCoin just a few Bags i think will be fun to watch.