Bears in disbelief!
So we have a running joke in the family that every time we go on vacation something very significant happens in crypto. Sometimes number goes way up out of nowhere, sometimes number crashes into the side of a mountain. Either way, something always seems to happen. There are exceptions of course but exceptions seem to make the rule in this case.
This time was no different.
I was on vacation last week and the price spiked up 25% out of nowhere. I checked the chart randomly towards the end of my vacay, expecting to see the same boring price of ~$64k, and instead it was more like ~$80k. This is a big signal to everyone that the bear market of 2026 is over. Time to rest easy; 3 more years of UP for BTC.
Of course now that everyone is feeling a bit confident there's still one more opportunity for the longs to get completely destroyed next month. After all, September has always proven itself a great time to buy. In fact... if September trades flat next month this market is going to be looking very similar to what happened in 2019. Let's take a look.
When the bear market was over two cycles ago it was just flatlining when it pulled a similar move as to what we see today. In one day it went from $4k to $5k; a 25% gain. This time it took a few more days to get there but the gain was largely the same. Could we be at the start of a 3-month long crazy rally in Q4? Honestly I hope not because I'd rather just see the price go up gradually rather than be volatile, but this is something to lookout for.
Looking back at the current chart.
Double-tapping ~$58k for the bottom of this bear market would be a pretty legendary ending, and I hope that level sustains because $58k has just been wildly consistent for five and a half years now. We can also see that the main 25/100 golden cross happened just yesterday, so that's also nice to see. Keep in mind that price needs to go well below $66k for that to turn into a death cross at this point. The technicals are looking quite good. I may have to start leverage trading come September if it continues to look this good and predictable.
Funny enough, the worst thing that can happen next month is that the price keeps pumping. That's the most unlikely outcome and I'd have no idea what was going on. We got our pump out of the trenches and now the best thing to happen is to trade flat inside the "liquidity void" band I have drawn there, or find support down at something like the MA(200) which currently sits steady and flat near $69420. Seeing as that's the peak of the 2021 bull market it would make the most sense to return there and bounce back up. This is a move that would seal confirmation once again that the bear is completely over.
4-year cycle
If things play out as normal it should look something like this over the next few years.
- 2027: year of the maximalist
- 2028: year of the new narrative
- 2029: year of the bull
There's a decent chance Bitcoin outperforms everything next year, which I must admit is a pretty annoying prospect considering how poorly alts performed last cycle. Alts tend to follow ETH so maybe it's up to Ethereum to push us forward. When we consider that the narrative of last run was just "memecoins on Solana" it makes sense why ETH and the rest of the space hardly got any action. Hopefully next cycle's narrative is better than the hot garbage pile we received in 2024.
The AI factor
There's also a very high likelihood that AI completely ate our lunch last cycle as the premium risk-on asset investment. This is interesting to consider (and I consider it often) because the upcoming cycle could easily be a full reversal. Not only can the AI narrative deflate a bit over the next few years, but also AI coding can help create much needed crypto infrastructure in a way that was not even thinkable before. We've yet to see the results of "vibe coding" in the industry in any meaningful way. After a few years go by we may see some legitimately useful products being developed. Personally I hope the next narrative for crypto is "gaming" but I'm just going to be saying that every cycle until it happens.
Conclusion
This recent pump is a huge signal that the bear market was over. The chance of creating a lower low for Bitcoin dwindles by the minute. $58k was the bottom, and this pump gives us the buffer we need to start looking forward into the next cycle. No more wondering if we are going to crash to sub $50k. It's not happening... and honestly if it did I'd be leveraged x5 long from that point.
It's still very appropriate to expect the market to find its footing next month. I either expect to crab between $77k-$85k for a while or dip back down to find support on top of the higher moving averages. Either way once September is over I'm going to be 99% confident that we've made it out to the other side.
That's encouraging to hear. I have heard other people say that the bear is over, but I just can't bring myself to fully believe it after all the craziness that has happened over the last four years or so.
Eh well consider that even the longest bear markets for BTC only last about 12 months.
We are less than 7 weeks away from 10/10.
At this point even the worst case scenario would be something like a flash crash with near-immediate recovery.
And even that would be a very easy day trade to make some "free money"
What is this free money you speak of? :)
I was doing DCA buying on Bitcoin before this jump and if it goes under $70k I will continue that. Do you think that's a feasible scenario or the low times are over and it will consolidate from here?
These are the lows.
In the grand scheme of things $58k and $80k are very close to each other.
I expect confirmation of support in September.
As stated in OP I think that means a return to MA(200) and the 2021 high at $69420.
If this move is more like the 2019 recovery we won't be moving down at all though.
Either way late September has always proven itself to be a very good time to buy.
It's not always the low but it almost always goes up from there for at least a few months.
good analysis
Congratulations @edicted! Your post has been a top performer on the Hive blockchain and you have been rewarded with this rare badge
You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOP