According to many crypto YouTubers and financial analysts alike, the "Bitcoin Halvening" which occurred just over a week ago, could potentially spark a catalyst for the next bull run. After all, half the amount of produced BTC shifts the balance between overall demand and supply even more so, right? Well, here's my thoughts on this...
Whilst in theory, this will be phenomenally good news for us crypto HODLers out there, numerous other factors could have their own implications on price too. Governmental interjection being one. I mean, the total marketcap for crypto is still relatively small. Currently just shy of $270 billion, it's literally a drop in the ocean and wouldn't really be on the radar of the "powers-that-be" for now. But in the future, all that will presumably change. Imagine all that tantalizing tax just waiting to be scooped up and pocketed by the official regulators. Especailly in light of the Coronavirus outbreak and the funds all those governments would be looking to recoup. For me, it's just a matter of time until they do swoop in and attempt to apply their restrictive rules and practices upon us. Although how much that would be and to what extent it would effect the growth of the crypto market as a whole is anyone's guess, but still, something to most definitely bear in mind.
Another thing that is indirect related to the first point. Global adoption. Supply is the only one constant that we can easily quantify when it comes to calculating the amount of BTC's being created. One thing that is, to some extent, an unknown variable, is the demand factor itself. Are we at a time in history where the majority of people are willing to accept and welcome this new financial technology? Keeping one's own wallet and dealing with long-stringed Bitcoin addresses may be standard fare to us now, but for a newbie, it's almost like reinventing the wheel. How society would react to transacting on a daily basis with digital currency, is also an anomaly. Especially when we already have fiat in place and the overwhelming majority of the world have been using it thus far without much issue. Sure, decentralization is important to us, but how relevant will it seem to your average Joe, the alternative being switching to crypto instead. Again, an unknown factor and one only time can ultimately reveal an answer to.
It's an interesting time we're all living in and lucky enough to be a part of within our relatively short lifetimes. Witnessing these historic technological leaps before our very own eyes and also being able to be a part of it. Sure, there is risk but also plenty of opportunity if things pan out in our favour. Who knows what the future will hold? One thing is for sure though. If you're not in it, then you're not "in" it. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Let's watch this space and see how things unfold! :)