DO NOT PANIC! BITCOIN DROP IS DRIVEN PURELY BY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

in #bitcoin6 years ago (edited)

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GOOD AFTERNOON STEEMIT,

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, from a technical analysis perspective, there is absolutely no need to panic about the drop in Bitcoin.

Flicking through headlines in the junk news might have you believe that Bitcoin is worthless and panic sellers have dumped the asset to zero. But this couldn’t be further from the truth!

Stop, take a deep breath and look at the way that price action is unfolding in front of your eyes.

Let’s start with a higher time frame chart:

BTC/USD Daily

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As you can see on the daily chart, Bitcoin is still above daily trend line support from as far back as 2012.

As long as this level is holding as support, price is still in a bullish trend and this is simply a short term trend before resuming on the higher time frame and making new highs.

Now I know Bitcoin has smashed through plenty of short term support/resistance levels that we’ve spoken about on it’s way down, but for some further reassurance, let’s zoom into an intraday chart and take a look at the price action:

BTC/USD Hourly

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This is a chart featuring the latest support/resistance level that I was trading.

You can see the green arrow marks the Bitcoin long trade that I took when price retraced to short term resistance turned support. The risk:reward was there and we smashed an easy automatic 1:3 from the bounce.

After the level broke down again, you can then see the opportunity that Bitcoin gave you to cut and reverse if you were so inclined. It’s just the exact same setup, where a higher time frame level holds, then price retraces to retest a short term area of previous support turned resistance for you to enter off.

As you can see, there is absolutely no panic selling going on and price is simply stepping between support/resistance levels, within a higher time frame bullish trend.

I implore you to not get caught up in the emotionally driven hype that you and the people around you are no doubt experiencing. Sit tight, take a look at your charts and make a rational decision to not puke the lows.

Best of probabilities to you.

Peace ✌🏻.




Please leave a comment with your ideas or just share a chart.

Blogging about markets is all about sharing ideas and making us see all possible angles. I look forward to having you follow along and reading what you throw at me.

Twitter: @forexbrokr
Instagram: @forexbrokr
Website: www.forexbrokr.com

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This is the market direction as it was intended to go.
A lot of flash sell. A lot of smart people buying and piling coins.
A lot of people with no knowledge of cryptocurrencies running in all directions.
What goes up must come down.
Keep on steemin'

Hey @pouchon, thanks for stopping by.

It does have a very predictable, orchestrated feel to the drop, doesn’t it. Smart money accumulating at the lows after all the dumb money that was late to the party got in at the highs.

Oh I’ll come keep steemin’! Where do you see the low coming in? 😎

Its crazy how everyone buys high and sells low. I mean geez! We should all know by now what to do but people just don't have the will power to follow through on the most basic rule in investing.

Hey @cyberblock, cheers.

Yep, we see it happen over and over again but people don’t change. The true definition of herd mentality and dumb money.

I hope you’re still in all your original long term positions! 😎

I haven't budged an inch lol My strategy of accumulating more crypto stays the same regardless of the USD value :)

I think by summer we should be back up to previous highs. HODL! No point in selling now if you didn’t at the highs.

You mean a northern hemisphere summer? Because it’s pretty damn hot in Australia right now 😂.

😂 Sorry, im from California so yeah around June, July.

I am disappointed on crypto market. Crypto market like this.
PicsArt_02-06-10.04.56.png

Only the dumb money.

I’m not dumb money and I hope a lot of my readers aren’t either.

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  1. Makes you wonder how the "rational decision" never seems to be "You should sell."
  2. It couldn't have anything to do with the people writing these posts holding coins, and thus having vested interest in others only buying and never selling, right? Nah, that's way too cynical of me to assume.
  3. Makes you wonder even more, especially when you combine the above two, where all these great rational insightful analysts were last week, to tell people they should in fact sell, so they could buy double now.

Me? I sold my cryptos last week. Dunno, seems pretty rational to me. Even if I were to buy now (and I wouldn't, the market can easily shed 10% extra), I'd be making so much money, than if I were to listen to these "NEVER SELL" advice-givers.

When your advice is always sell, or to never sell, you're the irrational one.

You don’t actually read anything I write, huh?

I’m not the one that preaches hold until you die. I preach risk management and trading your plan. Making rational decisions based on sound technical analysis, which I’ve outlined in this post.

If your original risk management plan was to sell at these prices, then well done for executing it.

✌🏻.

A beacon in the sea of chaos and FUD!

Hard to put it more clearly than showing that unbroken daily trend line. It's always amazing how worked up people can get before the trend even breaks.

Many gains to you and yours, my friend.

A beacon in the sea of chaos and FUD!

💡 I do try!

Yeah..correct.
We have to be polite & do patience.
BTC price will surely move to upward direction.
Thanks for such informative post.
Keep doing good work @forexbrokr

The market doesn’t care if you’re polite or not, I assure you that! 😉

I hope so, because this drop is getting too much

Getting too much?

What was your reason for buying in the first place?

Only thing we can do is Hodl till we reach a good level again. Believe in technology of blockchain

If you bought as an investment because you believed in the technology back then, has anything changed today?

I felt really bad. it's good to read your story

I hope the blog gave you some rationality.

I hope the blog gave you some rationality. :( everyone says it's over

I have never panicked cos it dropped... I know its gonna rise again.. Its just a little set back.. Bitcoin is a tough a coin.. @forexbrokr

No need to panic when you think rationally. I agree with you.

Thank you very much for sharing this, everyone is freaking out with this drop of bitcoin, I think we should be patient and we have to wait before doing something stupid. Peace <3.

No need to do something stupid. Make rational decisions. That’s what I’ve tried to do using the charts.

thanks for sharing this information with us

Sure thing.

Thank you for your advice
Let me no longer panic, I'll appropriate price increase again my currency holdings
Good luck@forexbrokr

Yeah, good luck with that.

I just consider it an opportunity of a life time to buy.

Great to hear man! I’m actually with you while we’re in this higher time frame bull trend.

cmon how can you know! bitcoin may well get down to 1000usd in a week. if this happens I'll probably buy...

People were buying at over $19k. Nobody likes throwing away money. How many people do you think are willing to sell their bitcoins for less than $6k? There has been no major news or reason for an actual crash.

Anything is possible, but the further we go down the less likely it gets that it will go down any further. Won't be long now!

Thanks for having a rational voice, Lee 😎

people were buying stocks at ridiculous prices in Greek stock market a decade ago when it was high! There were so freakin stupid to do that since they knew almost all of them were bubbles but they still did. Man there have been over 400 billion usd flew in one month from the coinmarket, are you sure? I think I will buy when bitcoin is 600usd

If it goes below $1000 then you’ll probably buy 😂😂. Come on man...

I don’t know. And neither does anyone. I’m just here backing up my trades with clearly defined risk from technical analysis and trying to talk people out of panic selling.

if it goes less than 600usd i will surely buy. when we greeks talk over about sex we say what has gone up should go down. how you can't get that probably in a months time there will be only 50 billion left in bitcoin or less? I'm just saying you can't have a rational voice can you???
just editing the post to add that I mean no offense in any way with all the above

I have very little educated or informative to add. But i like your content and you bring a great deal of information to the new guys out there. and a touch of humor, thanks dude.

No worries mate. Hope I can add some value to the crypto and trading community :)

New follower,upvoted and resteemed! Thank you!! :D I think we will see 5000 within the next week, then should start pumping back up again end of feb to mid march

$5000?! Ouch...

Thanks for following, hopefully we’ll speak again.

Hey man I’m not being negative or trying to cause fud or dismay :) I am very bullish long term on cryptos as a whole, and have enough research now to take advantage of probably the last correction and recovery we see of this magnitude, it will be a landmark/historical year for cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies. HODL strong brother, see you on the other side ;)

You do know the British government is also looking into using blockchain tech right? This all could be artificially manipulated price action so they can get in at a much lower rate, then pump themselves up to TRY and take control . They may get some, but us cypherpunks and even general folk who know how corrupt our governments and banks are. If we were to take a measly fraction back off them, we could all be millionaires hypothetically.. if we steer clear of centralised and banking coins, stick to privacy and decentralised coins and HODL strong together, the wealth WILL be redistributed back out to us 99%ers bit by bit, their fake fiat currencies are failing fast. Debt based, interest rate manipulation and ‘quantitive easing’ is not the solution to a stable global economy ......

Sorry for the rant lol, here’s a tattoo I did the other day too ;)

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it'll go up because every fall has a rise.
so don't lose hope and hold and hope for the good.

Every fall has a rise? Isn’t the saying the other way around? 😂

you can say but we should always think positive, cuz negative thoughs just could destory us and positive thoughts makes us strong.

This trend is in it's 4th year for january and february. Real traders just testing how low it will go then buy in bulk again ready to sell at its peak. It's coming around again - no doubts.

Market psychology at its finest 😎.